u/Due-Lingonberry-7021

[Results] LINK RSI midline cross + multi-TF filters — +82% / 6.6% DD over 1Y (300 trades)

Ran a 1-year backtest on LINK and wanted to share results + get feedback on the rule set.

Results (Jun 4, 2025 → Jun 4, 2026)

Metric Value
Starting capital $100,000
Final balance $182,236
Return +82.2%
Total trades 300
Win rate 57.3% (172W / 128L)
Profit factor 1.41
Max drawdown 6.6%
Avg win / avg loss ~$1,641 / ~$1,562

Long vs short breakdown

  • Longs: 112W / 99L (53% WR)
  • Shorts: 60W / 29L (67% WR)

Shorts carried disproportionate edge. Curious if that's regime-specific or overfit to this window.

Strategy logic (15m signals, 60m context)

Natural-language prompt compiled into deterministic RULES entries:

Long

  • RSI(14) on 15m crosses above 50
  • RSI(14) on 15m was < 50 one bar ago (persistence)
  • 15m price > SMA50 on 60m
  • ADX on 15m > 25

Short

  • RSI(14) on 15m crosses below 50
  • RSI(14) on 15m was > 50 one bar ago
  • 15m price < SMA50 on 60m
  • ADX on 15m > 30
  • RSI(14) on 60m < 50

Risk per trade: ~1.23% SL, ~1.95% TP (from actual trade data). One position at a time. 60m decision cadence. 0.1% taker fee per side modeled.

What this is / isn't

  • backtest → entries are deterministic once rules compile, not discretionary LLM calls each bar
  • Full year of 1m bar simulation, not a cherry-picked month
  • Not live trading. No slippage model beyond fees. No walk-forward or OOS split yet
  • MODERATE_BEARISH tag = setup label for window, not proof year was uniformly bearish

Interactive results (trade list + chart):(first time posting here, not sure if i can share links, if mods aprove i'll post in comments)

Questions for the sub

  1. RSI(50) as midline bias filter — useful or just curve-fit to 2025–26 LINK?
  2. ADX thresholds 25 long / 30 short — tighten further or drop asymmetry?
  3. Short side outperformance — scale short allocation or treat as noise until OOS?

Happy to share prompt text or trade distribution if useful. Roast away.

reddit.com
u/Due-Lingonberry-7021 — 3 days ago