Currently have a 1% position, literally my worst performer by a landslide (down 35%). At first I was considering using the position for tax harvesting for gains, but I’m just not convinced the thesis is broken. I wanted to revisit the company and see if I would buy again with fresh capital (today), and no matter how I tried to spin it I landed on yes.

People love to hate on PayPal here, but fact of the matter is it is one of the most recognized and trusted payment providers globally. This might just be my anecdotal experience and I might be completely wrong (anecdotal experience is always dangerous), but I’ve used it as both as a seller and a buyer, and in my experience the buyer and seller protection is a moat. I’ve won against scammers multiple times as a seller (if you as a seller are legit and actually put in effort in gathering backup evidence and proof of delivery you actually win). Same on the buyers side. It’s been a live saver more times than I can count.

Sure paying my parking ticket I might use Apple Pay, or when I go to the store. But PayPal is fighting back on tap to pay with their PayPal debit / credit card to compete with the comfortability of google pay / Apple Pay. And as soon as I order something online, using anything other than PayPal is out of the question for me. I don’t like putting my CC information into a website I’ve never ordered before. It’s simple, it’s convenient, and you’re protected. Branded checkout growth might be stalling and competition might be high, but I don’t think it’s dead. Maybe a few tough quarters, but overall, the moat is still there and I like the new Fastlane feature where Braintree automatically recognizes your PayPal. I believe this may also help reignite the branded checkout and is a bit overlooked.

Overall, I think branded checkout isn’t dead. Braintree is growing and will help bring more growth to branded checkout with fastlane. Venmo is super popular and just needs to be properly monetized. They haven’t gotten it so far, but I’m sure they’ll manage. They own the data on shopping habits for 400+ million users worldwide they can sell. It was bound to stagnate at some point, but seeing a Stripe worth 4-5 PayPal’s and Block inc trading higher than PayPal just makes no sense to me.

I’m not the biggest fan of the new ceo but as long as he continues buybacks / cuts costs and makes sure TPV keeps growing, even just very low single digits, I believe PayPal will be fine. Even if they lose market share, the total TPV will keep growing and PayPal inadvertently as being one of the largest players. It’s a mature business. No 10+% growth story, but it doesn’t have to be. Just buyback shares like HPQ and try to grow along with the total payment market or even slower, while canabalizing shares.

rant over. Im buying painpal tmrw, wish me luck

Is Siltronic being overlooked as a key player for Ai Chip and Memory Production?

- Only Sovereign EU manufacturer of high end 300mm wafers needed for the most advanced AI chips and memory

- Expected to reach a through this year with a bottom in legacy 200mm wafers demand, extremely high capex and depreciation (due to their investment in Singapore‘s cutting edge 300mm wafer production facility currently ramping up - 80% of supply secured with longterm contracts and expected EBITDA of 50%)

- Sumco and shin etsu sold out of 300mm wafers

- nearly 500 million in prepayments in Q1 alone

- expected to capitalize on the overall digitalization trend as no wafers means no chips and no chips means no robotics and no data centers

- back in 2022, its competitor globalwafers was willing to pay 5.3 billion (+68% from current price). This was before their new cutting edge facility in Singapore, which is currently ramping up and already produces 100k wafers a month at far higher margins than they’ve ever had

- was affected by short term headwind by winding down legacy facilities or upgrading, in order to focus on the most advanced 300mm wafers

Sony ($SONY): The perception play for the physical AI era

Most investors are stuck on the brain of AI like Nvidia or LLMs, but I think Sony is the ultimate pick and shovel play for the next 5 to 10 years. We are hitting a hardware bottleneck for physical AI: if a robot or car is going to move in the real world, it needs eyes. Sony dominates over 50 percent of the image sensor market and is shifting from simple smartphone sensors to edge computing with on-chip AI logic.

New sensors like the IMX735 allow for instant processing at the source, which is mandatory for avoiding the latency of the cloud in robotics. Recent leaks show Tesla moving toward Sony for the AI5 suite, and Boston Dynamics is already a heavy user of their high-speed sensors.

The music and pictures divisions are massive cash cows that provide a floor while the semiconductor division scales into the trillion-dollar robotics market. Trading at a pe of 15, it is an undervalued play hiding in plain sight.

Siltronic ($WAF): The essential wafer turnaround

No matter who wins the chip wars, they all need wafers. Siltronic is the top-tier (and only) European provider and is currently a classic worst-behind-us turnaround story. While they are navigating some near-term sales dips, they are doubling down on 300mm wafer production at their Singapore site.

As the cycle turns and AI chips demand more specialized substrates, Siltronic is perfectly positioned to capture the expansion of the hardware layer.

Samsung SDI ($SSDIY): The data center and non-CATL power play

Samsung SDI is becoming the go-to premium battery alternative for Western manufacturers who want to avoid or diversify away from Chinese battery manufacturers. They are finalizing a deal worth up to 1 billion dollars with Amazon/AWS to provide battery backup units for data centers. These systems are critical for maintaining uptime during the massive power surges required by AI workloads. Beyond data centers, they have locked-in deals with carmakers such as Mercedes and Stellantis, and I believe they may benefit from the massive net income by the parent company, which may want to double down on their subsidiaries as to not put all their eggs in one basket incase memory does become somewhat cyclical again.

SAP & Secunet: The EU digital and security backbone

SAP is far from dead; it is the sovereign cloud play for Europe. With their new AI assistant Joule and the shift to S/4HANA, they have a massive recurring revenue moat that businesses cannot simply switch off.

Secunet is the cybersecurity partner of the German government. Their order intake just rose over 90 percent to 143 million euros, driven by defense, space, and European border control systems. It is a niche, high-barrier play that is essential for regional security.

ams OSRAM ($AMS): Optical data transfer and smart glasses

Overlooked and hated by analysts after many got caught blindsided in 2021 with the horrible merger, ams OSRAM is shifting toward digital photonics and has trimmed its business down to what works and actually makes money. They are exploring micro-emitter array-based optical interconnects for AI data centers to allow for massive, parallel data transfer with low power consumption. With their tech also being built into next-gen smart glasses, they are on a path to positive free cash flow next year.

WaterBridge Infrastructure: The Delaware Basin utility

This is a pure infrastructure play on the energy sector. For every barrel of oil produced in the Delaware Basin, you get 4 to 10 barrels of dirty produced water. WaterBridge handles over 2.5 million barrels of this water every day. Their moat is the physical pipe network—transporting water via pipe is significantly cheaper and more regulated than using trucks. They only take on projects with ultra-fast paybacks, creating a toll-road business model that is essential for the basin to function, especially with oil prices where the are, the Permian basin will continue to thrive.

Cryoport ($CYRX): The cold chain for CGT and IVF

Cryoport is considered the gold standard with their cryo systems and has an fda regulatory moat because their systems are built into the actual filings for cell and gene therapies (CGT). You cannot just swap out a logistics provider for a 500,000 dollar therapy without risking regulatory delays or even reapproval. They now support 766 clinical trials and 21 commercial therapies (over 70% market share!). By offloading their specialty courier to DHL, they have pivoted to a high-margin platform model. Furthermore, global fertility rates are trending down, making egg and embryo preservation through their Cryostork business a major, non-cyclical growth driver for the next decade. Like Osram, I believe they ran far too high in 2021, based on hype, too much liquidity. The business have both progressed, taking a tough pill to swallow, focused on the essentials and are now back on track where they should be. The potential is still there, and the numbers are coming in solid, but not many are paying attention

Some of my other strong bets, which pop up way too often though: Amazon / Microsoft / JD.com. I am also holding Centene and UNH from the previous panic but am not adding more at these levels. Other non core positions include constellation brands, UPS, target, General Mills, novo nordisk, Lyft, PayPal and universal music.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice.

Sony is the Micron/Samsung of the Physical AI Era (Change my mind)

Am I crazy to think Sony is the ultimate "pick and shovel" play for the next 5-10 years?
Everyone is obsessed with the "brain" of AI (Nvidia/LLMs), but we’re hitting a massive hardware bottleneck for Physical AI. If an AI is going to move, drive, or grab things in the real world, it needs "eyes." And right now, Sony basically owns the world’s vision.

1. The Vision Bottleneck

Sony dominates ~50% of the global image sensor market. For years, this was "just" a smartphone story (Apple, etc.), but that’s changing. For humanoid robots and Level 4/5 autonomous driving to work, you can't just stream raw video to a server and wait for a response. The latency would kill you (literally).
Sony’s new IMX500/AITRIOS sensors have built-in AI logic for instant, on-device processing. They aren’t just capturing light; they’re processing metadata on the chip. This is the exact "edge computing" required for robots to become a reality.

2. The Proof is in the Hardware

This isn't just "future" hype. Look at who is already at the table:

* Tesla: Recent firmware leaks suggest Tesla is swapping to Sony’s latest sensors (IMX00N) for the AI5 hardware suite.

* Boston Dynamics: The Atlas and Spot Cam 2 are heavily reliant on Sony’s high-speed, global-shutter tech.

* Hyundai/Boston Dynamics: Hyundai just announced plans to mass-produce 30,000 humanoid robots annually by 2028.

* Waymo: While others pivot to "vision-only," Waymo’s scaling fleet is packed with Sony’s high-dynamic-range (HDR) sensors.

3. The "Boring" Safety Net

The best part? You’re not buying a pre-revenue startup. You’re buying a company where the Music and Pictures divisions are absolute cash cows.

* Music streaming royalties are steady and growing.

* The Pictures division is a content goldmine for the "streaming wars."

I don’t need these divisions to "moon." I just need them to provide a rock-solid floor while the Semiconductor (I&SS) division scales into the trillion-dollar robotics and ADAS markets.

The Analogy

Just like Micron and Samsung became the "must-owns" for the memory/chip boom, Sony is the must-own for the perception boom. Sooner or later the focus will be on physical AI and real world applications

You can’t have Physical AI without CMOS sensors, and you can’t have high-end CMOS without Sony.

Is there something I'm missing here? Or is Sony the most undervalued AI play hiding in plain sight?

TLDR: valuation at PE of 15 is reasonable, Gaming / IP / music etc are more steady cash cows and should continue to provide meaningful returns (albeit not expecting any massive or even moderate growth), but large potential in their sensory market which is closing in on 1/4 of total profit.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice. I just like the sensors. Also, I used AI to gather my thoughts into a structured text (better than what I would’ve written), since I’ve been keeping tabs on Sony for a while but held off (until last week), as I saw memory prices as a near term headwind. Looking to build up my position on any further price weakening.