[Data Analysis] I tracked over 2,300 pack upgrades. Here are the REAL drop rates (and the hidden Mythic bottleneck).
Hey everyone,
Like many of you, I’ve been wondering if the RNG in this game is actually fair, especially when it comes to getting Mythic packs. As a bit of a data nerd, I decided to track my pack openings to find out the exact probabilities.
After recording a massive sample size of 2,371 consecutive pack upgrade attempts, the math finally revealed how the system is actually built.
Here are the real drop rates for each upgrade stage:
📊 The Data (Sample Size: 2,371)
- Stage 1 (Common -> Rare): 31.8% success rate
- Stage 2 (Rare -> Epic): 35.1% success rate
- Stage 3 (Epic -> Royal): 14.0% success rate ⚠️
- Stage 4 (Royal -> Mythic): 13.5% success rate
💡 My Takeaways / The TL;DR:
- The "Illusion" of the Early Game: The game is designed to feel generous at first. Your first two upgrades sit comfortably around a 1-in-3 chance (~33%). This keeps us tapping and hoping.
- The Bottleneck: The moment you try to jump from Epic to Royal, the developers cut your chances by more than half. It drops off a cliff to 14%.
- The Mythic Reality: Mythics do exist, but the odds are brutal. When you compound the probabilities across all 4 successful jumps, the absolute chance of a Common pack naturally upgrading all the way to Mythic is 0.21%.
Statistically speaking, you need to open an average of 474 packs just to see a single Mythic drop organically.
I hope this data helps some of you manage your expectations and plan your grinding/spending better! Has anyone else felt this massive wall at the Epic-to-Royal stage?