Saudi Arabia’s backup oil route is now under threat too. There is no Plan C.
I don't know how to sugarcoat this one so I'm just going to lay it out.
The Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on Monday. Three Saudi tankers carrying crude to Asia actually turned around in the Red Sea on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia spent the last five months rerouting all their oil exports to a Red Sea port called Yanbu specifically to avoid Hormuz. That was the backup plan. The backup plan is now under blockade.
Hormuz itself is basically shut. Two supertankers a day, down from eight a few weeks ago. Eleven straight days of US strikes on Iran. Iran firing back at bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Syria. Trump said yesterday there won't be negotiations anytime soon and threatened to hit Iran's nuclear mountain. No talks happening.
Brent hit $94 this morning. That EIA forecast from three weeks ago that said $74 for this quarter feels like it was written by someone on vacation.
Oh and by the way, someone also attacked the Caspian pipeline terminal in Russia's Black Sea this week. That's Kazakh oil, completely unrelated to Iran. Three different supply routes disrupted at the same time. I've been doing this a while and I can't remember that happening before.
The part that actually worries me is that Saudi's Yanbu workaround was the reason this never turned into a full blown crisis. Oil still got out even when Hormuz closed. If Bab el-Mandeb actually closes too, roughly 30% of the world's seaborne oil has no clear path to market. There's no Plan C after this.
So what am I actually doing about it:
I called every shipper yesterday to move FSC to weekly review. Not asking. Telling. Crude went from $74 to $94 in three weeks, any schedule built before that is fiction now.
If you drive, fill up heavy this week. Pump prices are still running on old crude. Give it two weeks and it catches up.
If you're a shipper reading this, call your broker today and ask what their worst case fuel scenario looks like. If they don't have one, that tells you something.
Capacity side at home, honestly, nothing changed. Same trucks, same drivers, same records. The Gulf doesn't add a flatbed in Dallas.
25 days to August 16. Iran's clock is still ticking. But right now nobody's talking, and that's the part I don't like.
Anyone else having a rough week or is it just me?
Sources: CNBC July 21 (Houthi blockade, Saudi tankers turned around, supertanker crossings), OilPrice.com July 22 (Brent $94, Houthis Bab el-Mandeb), Reuters July 21 (tankers reversed in Red Sea), TradingEconomics July 22 (WTI, Caspian pipeline, Rubio statement), Bloomberg July 22 (Trump dismissed negotiations).
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