r/DFS_Sports

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NFL DFS is all about game environment you're hunting shootouts for stacks and dodging games where your RB1 sits the fourth quarter up 21. I've spent the past year solo building a prediction model, and the NFL side outputs the kind of game-level reads that actually matter for lineups. Wanted to share the approach and get input from people who grind NFL slates.

What the model produces per game:

• Projected total the shootout finder. High-total games are where stacking a QB with his WR1/WR2 pays off
• Spread / blowout risk a projected double-digit blowout is a red flag for your studs' second-half volume, especially RBs in negative game scripts
• Win probability + pace game-script reads that tell you whether a team throws to catch up or runs to bleed clock

How it's built: a 10-model ensemble (Elo, Poisson, Monte Carlo, Bayesian, market signals) combined into one projection per game. Forward results only logged before kickoff, never backtested because a backtested NFL model that "would've crushed last season" tells you nothing about next Sunday.

What I'm curious about from this sub:

• For NFL specifically, does projected total or spread drive more of your lineup decisions?
• How much do you trust a model total over the Vegas total cross-check, or ignore?
• Game script reads (pass heavy vs run-heavy) do you build around those, or is it too noisy week to week?

It runs in an app I built (SharpLines) if anyone wants to see the projection format, but I'm here for the NFL DFS input happy to go deeper on any part of it.

All classic-slate players. Showdown excluded.

Look at = strong L3 Actual Value + positive Trend Score. Avoid = the reverse.

FanDuel — Batters: players to look at

• Chase Meidroth, SS/2B, DTD, $3,100, CWS vs CIN, L3AV 7.68, Trend Score +157.11
• Yandy Diaz, 1B, $3,200, TB vs OAK, L3AV 8.09, Trend Score +141.75
• Taylor Walls, SS/2B, $2,500, TB vs OAK, L3AV 7.61, Trend Score +156.71
• Drew Gilbert, OF, $2,400, SF vs HOU, L3AV 6.58, Trend Score +165.69
• Bo Bichette, SS/3B, $2,900, NYM vs ATL, L3AV 7.26, Trend Score +138.81

FanDuel — Batters: players to avoid

• Evan Carter, OF, $2,700, TEX vs LAA, L3AV 0.00, Trend Score -100.00
• Heliot Ramos, OF, $2,800, NYY vs SEA, L3AV 0.00, Trend Score -100.00
• Colt Emerson, SS/3B, $2,600, SEA vs NYY, L3AV 0.00, Trend Score -100.00
• Denzer Guzman, SS/3B, $2,600, LAA vs TEX, L3AV 0.00, Trend Score -100.00
• TJ Friedl, OF, $2,300, CIN vs CWS, L3AV 0.00, Trend Score -100.00

FanDuel — Pitchers: players to look at

• Drew Rasmussen, $10,600, TB vs OAK, L3AV 5.96, Trend Score +66.31
• Cal Quantrill, $7,200, TEX vs LAA, L3AV 5.40, Trend Score +111.43
• Tyler Mahle, $8,000, ATL vs NYM, L3AV 4.25, Trend Score +55.63
• David Peterson, $7,800, CHC vs WAS, L3AV 4.23, Trend Score +59.65
• Framber Valdez, $9,000, DET vs CLE, L3AV 4.47, Trend Score +39.62

FanDuel — Pitchers: players to avoid

• Bryce Miller, $8,600, SEA vs NYY, L3AV 1.39, Trend Score -58.66
• Carmen Mlodzinski, $7,000, PIT vs MIA, L3AV -0.38, Trend Score -42.60
• Zack Wheeler, $10,400, PHI vs STL, L3AV 1.51, Trend Score -57.84
• Foster Griffin, $9,500, CLE vs DET, L3AV 1.70, Trend Score -47.59
• Daniel Lynch IV, $6,000, KC vs LAD, L3AV 0.36, Trend Score -27.89

Full FanDuel rankings — every batter and pitcher, salaries, projections:

On the site — historical stats, value, projections:

• MLB trends & stats
• Lineup Builder

Note:

• L3 Actual Value: pts per $1k of salary over the player's last three games (actuals), when available.
• Trend Score: last-3 scoring against the player's season average, in percentage points.

Good luck. Up vote if you tailed..This LU was generated by an AI I've been using to create profitable entries!!