EB1 India FAD - October 2026 prediction thread (bull/base/bear case)
EB1 India FAD - October 2026 prediction thread (bull/base/bear)
Crowdsourcing where EB1 India FAD lands in the Oct 2026 bulletin. Drop your guess.
WHERE WE ARE (June 2026)
- FAD: Dec 15, 2022 (retrogressed 3.5 months from Apr 1, 2023)
- DOF: Dec 1, 2023
- DOS warned more retrogression or "unavailable" possible before Sept 30
- India cap ~9,800 EB visas/yr normal, 13-18K in spillover years
LATEST I-485 INVENTORY (USCIS released Mar 24, 2026, snapshot Jan 2, 2026)
- Apr 2025 release had ~15,530 EB1 India pending through end of 2022
- DOF sat at Apr 1 / Dec 1, 2023 through late 2025-early 2026, so inventory grew into 2023 PDs
- Working estimate: ~18-22K EB1 India I-485s pending, stacked heavy in 2021-2023
- Total EB I-485 inventory: ~180K across all categories
PORTER POOL (silent demand)
- FOIA data: ~313K EB2 India + ~68K EB3 India I-140s pending historically
- Strong profiles (PhDs, principals, MNC managers) port to EB1A/EB1B
- Each port consumes an India EB1 number invisible to EB1 I-140 receipts
HISTORICAL FB-TO-EB SPILLOVER
- FY21 (COVID): ~122K spillover, EB ceiling 262K
- FY23: ~57K spillover, ceiling 197K
- FY24: ceiling 160,791
- FY25: ceiling 150,037
- Pre-pandemic: usually 0-15K
FY27 SPILLOVER ESTIMATES (PP 10998 + Jan 21 75-country pause)
- Capitol Immigration Law Group: 200K+ EB total (~60K+ spillover)
- Emily Neumann (RNB): ~50K, ceiling ~190K
- GreenCardClock revised: ~55K base (10K floor / 90K adverse) after May bulletin showed DOS rerouting numbers, not letting them evaporate
BULL CASE - FAD Apr 2024 to Aug 2024
- Spillover ~90K+, closer to COVID windfall
- EB1 ROW underuses, unused falls to India first
- Porter velocity slows
- Oct bulletin overshoots like Jan 2026 did
BASE CASE - FAD Oct 2023 to Feb 2024
- Spillover 50-65K (GCC / Neumann range)
- Clean recovery of FY26 retrogression plus a few months
- Porter demand at current pace
- DOF moves to mid-late 2024
BEAR CASE - FAD Apr 2023 to Jul 2023
- DOS keeps rerouting unused FB numbers in FY26, FY27 pool near 10K floor
- Porter pressure surges
- 2022 PD inventory wall absorbs most supply
- DOS stays on FAD chart for EB AOS
DISCUSS
- Your Oct 2026 FAD/DOF prediction and which case
- Which spillover model do you trust
- How much weight on porters - anyone seeing EB1A RFE trends shift?
- If you have the Mar 2026 USCIS inventory file, post EB1 India bucket numbers
Sources: June 2026 DOS bulletin, USCIS I-485 inventory (Jan 2 snapshot, released Mar 24), USCIS FY23/24 AOS FAQs, Capitol Immigration Law Group Feb 2026, GreenCardClock May 2026, Times of India / Neumann Jan 2026, historical FOIA I-140 data.
u/Calm_Reporter_5020 — 2 days ago