r/FCSupra

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FC Supra didn't exist 8 months ago. They played their first ever professional match on April 12. They've already beaten the defending champions' conquerors (Ottawa lost to them too — wait, Ottawa beat Supra). Let me be precise — they beat Pacific and HFX, lost to Ottawa, Cavalry and Forge.

But the data from those 5 matches reveals a tactical identity that's already fully formed. Here's the complete breakdown.

Formation — they're still experimenting

Match	Formation	Result
vs Pacific	4-4-2	W 3-2
vs Ottawa	4-2-3-1	L 0-1
vs HFX	4-2-3-1	W 2-1
vs Cavalry	4-4-2	L 0-1
vs Forge	3-5-2	L 0-1

Razzaghi hasn't used the same XI twice. Against Forge he tried a 3-5-2 — the most ambitious tactical shift — and it produced their worst attacking output (0.68 xG, 5 shots, 6 touches in the box).

The xG story — they create but can't finish

Match	xG	Goals	On target	Avg shot dist
vs Pacific	2.51	3	9/16	15.8m
vs Ottawa	1.68	0	10/18	18.0m
vs HFX	1.14	2	5/16	19.7m
vs Cavalry	0.35	0	1/8	20.3m
vs Forge	0.68	0	1/5	24.2m

The average shot distance tells a fascinating story. Against Pacific — 15.8m, close to goal, high quality chances. Against Forge — 24.2m, shooting from distance, desperate. The better the opposition the further from goal Supra are shooting from.

Their conversion is also erratic. Against Ottawa they created 1.68 xG — 10 shots on target — and scored zero. That's the unluckiest result of their season. By xG they deserved at least a point.

Touches in the penalty box — the clearest indicator

This is the metric that best explains Supra's results:

• vs Pacific: 22 box touches — W
• vs Ottawa: 33 box touches — L (unlucky)
• vs HFX: 31 box touches — W
• vs Cavalry: 15 box touches — L
• vs Forge: 6 box touches — L

Against Cavalry and Forge — the two most organised defensive teams in CPL — Supra barely got into the box. 6 touches against Forge is almost nothing. Forge's defensive shape completely suffocated them.

Pressing — their best weapon but inconsistently applied

PPDA and interceptions reveal when Supra's press works:

• vs Pacific: PPDA 13.55, 54 interceptions — won the ball constantly
• vs Ottawa: PPDA 10.98, 35 interceptions — pressed harder but fewer recoveries
• vs HFX: PPDA 11.48, 47 interceptions — balanced, won
• vs Cavalry: PPDA 8.71, 42 interceptions — most aggressive press of season, still lost
• vs Forge: PPDA 11.74, 47 interceptions — solid press, Forge still created 16 shots against

The Cavalry match is the most interesting defensively. Supra pressed harder than any other match (PPDA 8.71) yet still conceded and barely created anything. Cavalry absorbed the press completely and punished them on the counter with just 10 shots, 4 on target, 1 goal.

Defensive shape — better than you'd expect from a new club

Supra's defensive duels won percentage: 53%, 68%, 68%, 69%, 62%. Consistently solid. For a brand new club with no shared history these are respectable numbers.

Their vulnerability is shots against — 13 against Pacific, 16 against Forge. When the press breaks down they face a lot of attempts.

The verdict — who are FC Supra?

They're a direct, counter-pressing team that needs space to operate. Against teams that allow them to press and counter — Pacific, HFX — they're dangerous and clinical. Against teams that absorb pressure and play structured football — Cavalry, Forge — they struggle to create and lose.

Their xG says they've been slightly unlucky (Ottawa game especially). Their shot distance data says they're being pushed further from goal by better opponents. Their box touch data says better teams are keeping them out of dangerous areas completely.

The biggest tactical problem: Razzaghi is still searching for the right formation. The 3-5-2 against Forge was a gamble that didn't pay off. The 4-2-3-1 looks like their most natural shape.

They have 5 matches left before the halfway point. The question is whether they can unlock their attacking game against top half opposition — or whether their ceiling is beating the bottom half teams.

What do you think Supra need to fix most — finishing, creation against organised defences, or defensive stability?

Charts and analysis by u/TheDataMaple — Canadian football told through data.

r/FCSupra

Le FC Supra s’est incliné à Hamilton (1-0), après avoir beaucoup défendu et manqué ses quelques opportunités d’égaliser.

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