USL Title Race Probabilities 8/14/26
Hi all- I'm a Hearts fan and earlier this season was trying to figure out how likely they were to make the playoffs week by week (unfortunately it has continued to decline). I found it useful and interesting, and I also like math and soccer so this has turned into a fun side project across USLC and USL L1, plus some other leagues now (just added EPL).
There are already cool weekly posts on this sub- big fan of the attendance numbers- so I thought people may find the title race probabilities interesting. The site should stay up to date as the season progresses but I can also do weekly posts like below if folks are interested.
Any feedback is much appreciated. I've continued to find a bunch of bugs/issues so don't hesitate. UTFH!
USL Championship
Where things stand: Tampa Bay Rowdies have basically wrapped up the East- 99.9% playoff, and they're the favorite for the conference title too, at 85%. The real drama is out West: New Mexico United (48%) and Orange County SC (32%) are in a two-team fight for the title, with San Antonio (7%) and FC Tulsa (5%) still mathematically alive.
The bubble:
- East- Hartford Athletic (73%) and Indy Eleven (71%) are in good shape, with Miami FC (21%), Birmingham Legion (18%), and Loudoun United (18%) still alive but needing help
- West- El Paso Locomotive (72%) and Colorado Springs (71%) hold the last bubble spots, Las Vegas Lights (4%) is a coin flip, and Phoenix Rising (28%) is a longer shot still worth watching.
Games that matter this weekend:
- Las Vegas Lights v Brooklyn- the single biggest swing game on the board. A Lights win pushes them to 60% playoff odds; a loss drops them to 34%. Brooklyn's still a long shot either way (7–18%) but this is their best remaining chance to move the needle. → game page
- Hartford Athletic v Miami FC- Hartford win: 78% playoff for them, Miami drops to 9%. Miami win: they climb to 31%, Hartford sits at a 49% coin flip. Direct bubble collision. → game page
- Colorado Springs v Birmingham Legion- same shape: Colorado 67–84% depending on result, Birmingham 16–35%. → game page
Best game: New Mexico United host FC Tulsa- 3rd and 4th in the West, one point apart. Both are playoff-safe already; this one's really about the title race, since a NMU win keeps them in the driver's seat against Orange County SC.
USL League One
Where things stand: Union Omaha is the clear title favorite at 57%, with Charlotte Independence (24%) and One Knoxville (12%) still very much alive. Forward Madison's title odds slid to 6% after their midweek win moved them up the table but out of the driver's seat- their playoff spot is still essentially locked (99%), along with Union Omaha, Charlotte, and One Knoxville, plus Spokane Velocity (92%), Chattanooga Red Wolves (85%), and Boise (81%) in good shape behind them.
The real fight is for the last spot or two: Fort Wayne (53%), Alta (50%), and Corpus Christi (32%) are scrapping for it, with Hearts of Pine (5%) the longest shot still technically alive.
Games that matter this weekend:
- Fort Wayne v Chattanooga Red Wolves- the weekend's biggest swing and arguably the best game too: a Fort Wayne win puts them at 63% and Chattanooga at 77%; a Chattanooga win drops Fort Wayne to 37% and lifts Chattanooga to 93%. Genuinely two teams playing for the same thing. → game page
- NY Cosmos v Alta- Cosmos are effectively eliminated from playoff contention no matter what happens here. Alta's own odds swing from 46% (Cosmos win) to 72% (Alta win) purely on this result. → game page
- Spokane Velocity v Corpus Christi- Spokane's safe either way (84–94%); Corpus Christi's bubble hopes swing from 20% to 44%. → game page
Probabilities and graphics from Magic Number, a playoff simulator I built. Link.