How Trump Can Break the Iran Logjam
Time to face an uncomfortable truth: America lost the Iran War. It's a development not only discomfiting but world-historical, marking the pitiful conclusion of American primacy and the "U.S.-led international order."
President Donald Trump is in a bind. Escalating the war in hopes of changing the outcome would worsen its deleterious effects and almost certainly fail to force Iranian capitulation. But reaching a peace agreement is difficult, thanks to a near-total absence of Iranian trust in any commitments that Trump might make.
The solution to Trump's predicament, I've come to believe, can be found in an unlikely source: a little-discussed work of political psychology published more than a half century ago. More on that anon but, in short, Trump should initiate a "peace race" with the Islamic Republic: unilaterally make a bold concession, invite Tehran to reciprocate, and continue the cycle until the U.S. and Iran have transformed mutual antipathy into constructive relations.
But before I get to the "call to action" portions of this column, let's take stock of the stunning defeat America has suffered.
Iran won't soon relinquish its newfound control over the Strait of Hormuz, so the U.S. must relinquish its role as global guarantor of trade routes. American retrenchment from Iran's vicinity seems inevitable, both because Tehran demands it and because our bases in the region are wrecked and would cost a fortune to rebuild. After unprovoked U.S.-Israeli attacks, Iran has greater incentive and willingness to acquire a nuclear deterrent. Moreover, the war has accelerated America's decline relative to China, its chief rival and only peer competitor.
How did this happen?
We threw just about everything we had at Iran -- including most of our offensive long-range missiles and defensive interceptor missiles -- yet we didn't accomplish our goals. Trump was able to secure a ceasefire in June, but it quickly fell apart after the U.S. arguably violated it by creating a Hormuz route outside Iranian control. Over the last few weeks, Tehran has set the tempo and geographical scope of hostilities and eschewed a pause in fighting initiated by Trump. The Iranians seem intent on denying the U.S. any breathing room to rearm, calm markets, and relaunch the war under more favorable conditions.
Clearly, the White House badly underestimated Tehran's resilience and resolve -- an inexcusable miscalculation considering the frantic warnings issued by Iran experts before the war. There aren't many silver linings here amid the gloom and doom. (One strong candidate is American retrenchment from the Middle East, a region of long-diminished strategic value and a sandtrap upon which U.S. foreign policy recurrently founders.)
Theoretically, Trump could launch a land invasion or destroy civilian infrastructure, but he's constrained by public opinion, energy prices, munitions stockpiles, and Iran's retaliatory capabilities, which remain mostly intact even after the U.S. strategic bombing campaign. Trump has indicated he'll maintain economic pressure, hoping for Iran to throw in the towel. But the Iranians have demonstrated a high pain tolerance and believe they're fighting an existential war. With oil prices rising, his poll numbers declining, and the midterms drawing near, Trump may find that his own pain tolerance is a great deal lower.
Given these constraints, America's top general Dan Caine is reportedly urging Trump officials to find an off-ramp. But an easy off-ramp is precisely what Iran's ascendant hardliners aim to deny the American president. A statement released on Sunday by the secretary of Iran's national security council demanded the U.S. make significant military and economic concessions before the Hormuz is reopened. On Monday, an advisor to Iran's lead negotiator ruled out the possibility of any agreement with Trump.
In short, Trump can neither restart the war nor secure a deal. And he probably can't let the problem fester for long, because of the pain tolerance issue, nor simply walk away, since Iran requires concessions to open Hormuz. It's an astonishing predicament. Still, he's gotten out of seemingly hopeless traps before, and he can do so again. That brings me back to the "little-discussed work of political psychology" I mentioned earlier.
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