r/StackPGMs

The COMEX Vault Drain Hypothesis: Is Something Fishy Going On?
▲ 29 r/StackPGMs+2 crossposts

The COMEX Vault Drain Hypothesis: Is Something Fishy Going On?

Over the past several months I've been digging into the unusual activity in silver and broader precious metals markets: the vault drains, the record delivery volumes, and the price volatility, in an effort to figure out whether there's a real story here or just noise.
What I found is a pattern that, at least to me, looks like more than coincidence: a growing overlap between what's happening in these markets and the major government initiatives now underway around critical minerals.

This post lays out that connection. None of this should be taken as investment advice: just my own research and my own theory, which I'm putting out there for others to poke holes in, add to, or shoot down entirely. Take it for what it's worth and please do your own digging before drawing any conclusions.

Views are my own and not in any way endorsed by my employer. Our firm is neither involved in, nor positioned in, any of the securities or companies mentioned. None of the information in this post, or elsewhere on my page, should at any point ever be misconstrued as neither investment nor financial advice. Please be sure to do your own research, always.

See for yourself here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1uDROwpDlUvp398tvEWmgn9laHn2pbKgb0vpH05KB6mc/edit?usp=sharing

Version with images (no Imgur links): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Oj-v5Ik_JkM_ZP7QP3mpB9lLKAvrkDN8THm8JeQzIu0/edit

u/Dutchpapersilver666 — 3 days ago
▲ 50 r/StackPGMs+2 crossposts

Decrease in registered GOLD and SILVER. Significant positive revisions (after hours purchase) of GOLD and SILVER futures. Total SILVER futures trade is highest volume in the last 1-1/2 months. Trend of significant spot GOLD purchases continues.

Vaults:
SILVER, 603 koz into Asahi. Nothing out. 928 koz reclassified to registered at Loomis Intl. 1.25 million oz reclassified out of registered: Asahi 0.65, Stonex 0.33, Brinks 0.2, MTB 0.07.

GOLD, Nothing in. 1 kilo out at MTB. 2.088 immaculate tonnes reclassified out of registered at Brinks.

COMEX (June) Spot Volume Today (final)- Gold 2724, Silver 148, Platinum 0

COMEX PM Vaults

New June contracts yesterday based on preliminary reports SILVER 57 (+0.5 truckloads), GOLD +255 ( +0.8 tonnes), Platinum 0

After Hours Revision report, changes in contracts between preliminary and final reports: SILVER +575 (+4.8 truckload), GOLD +1390 (+4.3 tonnes), PLATINUM +1
_____

Undeliverable ratios: [I added July (inactive) GOLD since they seem to be playing games with it.]

June:
GOLD, 0.00 (UNCH)

July:
SILVER, 1.33 (-0.34)
PLATINUM, 2.32 (-0.79)
GOLD, 0.05 (UNCH)

August:
GOLD, 1.83 (+0.03)

September:
SILVER, 3.67 (+0.09)

October:
GOLD, 0.13 (UNCH)
PLATINUM, 9.65 (+0.40)

December:
SILVER, 0.63 (+0.03)
GOLD, 0.30 (+0.01)

January:
PLATINUM, 0.97 (UNCH)

February:
GOLD, 0.04 (UNCH)

March:
SILVER, 0.18 (+0.02)

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u/Dutchpapersilver666 — 10 days ago