r/StocksTool

ARM +10.3% today — the China exposure math is more interesting than the headline
▲ 57 r/StocksTool+35 crossposts

ARM +10.3% today — the China exposure math is more interesting than the headline

A lot of the discussion around ARM today centers on its ~18% China revenue exposure (mostly royalty revenue through licensees like Samsung and SK Hynix). Ran the EPS sensitivity instead of just looking at the headline percentage: a 10% cut to that China revenue only moves EPS by about $0.01. The royalty/licensing model has enough operating leverage that revenue shocks don't translate 1:1 into earnings hits.

HPE was up almost identically (+10.0%) the same session, which points more toward broad tech/infra rotation than an ARM-specific catalyst. The AI infrastructure and custom silicon design-win narrative ("physical AI buildout" robotics, edge, data centers) is getting cited as the underlying driver.

Full writeup: https://metricshour.com/briefs/2026-07-10/

Curious if others are seeing the same EPS math or reading the exposure risk differently.

metricshour.com
u/metricshour — 3 days ago
▲ 22 r/StocksTool+11 crossposts

Amazon (AMZN) 2025 Revenue: 68% Still Comes from the United States

Amazon gets 68% of its revenue from the US market in 2025.

Full split:
- US: 68%
- Germany: 6%
- UK: 6%
- Japan: 4%
- India: 2%
- Other: 4%

Quite concentrated for a global giant.

Full data: https://metricshour.com/stocks/amzn

What do you think about this exposure?

u/metricshour — 4 days ago
▲ 8 r/StocksTool+5 crossposts

Episode 26 of The Weekly Sift Stack: CJ Gettelfinger, Lucas Nulsen, & Tyler Sherven break down the biggest stories moving markets. Wednesday marks an Earnings Extravaganza as Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft drop Q1 reports - a staggering combined $12 trillion in market cap to be evaluated. We’re diving deep into Microsoft: why is it lagging in 2026? Despite "Software is Dead" AI fears, MSFT’s moat remains massive, fueled by 1.2 billion Excel power users and Azure’s cloud surge. Plus, we analyze the "World Stress Meter" following geopolitical spikes in Iran, cover the latest failed presidential assassination attempt, and discuss the record-breaking (but controversial) Michael Jackson biopic.

u/Tswervs — 5 days ago
▲ 24 r/StocksTool+16 crossposts

ETF Movers: Capital is splitting between Semis (+2.5%) and Utilities (+1.2%)

Looking at the sector flows today, we are seeing a very clear split in where capital is moving. It is not a straight risk-on or risk-off environment.
Here is the breakdown of the biggest ETF sector movers today:
The Risk Bid: iShares MSCI South Korea (EWY) is up 3.4%, and Semiconductors (SOXX) are continuing their momentum, up 2.5%.
The Defensive Hedge: Usually, when tech and emerging markets are running, utilities bleed. Not today. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) is up 1.2%. Money is still actively locking in defensive yield.
The Pullback: Materials (XLB) are down 1.5% and Gold Miners (GDX) are taking the biggest hit, dropping 2.1%.
This type of barbell action (buying high-growth semis while simultaneously bidding up slow-growth utilities) usually points to institutions hedging their bets.
Are you guys currently rotating into defensive sectors like XLU, or continuing to ride the momentum in SOXX?

u/metricshour — 7 days ago
▲ 24 r/StocksTool+7 crossposts

D.E. Shaw's $166.3B Q1 2026 13F: Tech dominance continues, plus an interesting $958M hold on Intel ($INTC)

The latest SEC EDGAR filings are fully updated, and taking a look under the hood of quantitative hedge fund D.E. Shaw reveals a massive $166.3 billion portfolio spread across 3,287 positions.
Despite the broad diversification, their conviction in mega-cap tech is clear. The top five holdings make up over $14 billion in capital alone:
$NVDA: $3.8B (22.0M shares)
$MSFT: $3.0B
$TSLA: $2.7B
$AVGO: $2.4B
$AAPL: $2.3B
Further down the list at position #14, they are holding 21.7M shares of Intel ($INTC), valued at $958M. This is a particularly interesting allocation to watch. With the recent Stifel Nicolaus price target downgrade weighing on Intel's market narrative, it will be telling to see if D.E. Shaw holds the line or trims this position in Q2.
Are you mirroring any of these top quantitative allocations in your own portfolios? You can explore all 3,200+ holdings on the MetricsHour D.E. Shaw tracker.
(Data compiled via MetricsHour)

u/metricshour — 11 days ago