
India is importing sugar because of ethanol? The real story is maize.
Today the government allowed sugar imports for the first time in nearly ten years. 10 lakh tonnes at zero duty till October. Prices hit a record of ₹5,500 a quintal, up from ₹3,900 a year ago.
So obviously Every headline right now is about sugar. And everyone is attributing it to ethanol
But here is my take - sugar is the smaller story.
The actual story is maize. In 2024 India's maize imports went up 7,940 percent year on year. That's not a typo. India was a maize exporter for decades, shipping around 1.9 million tonnes a year to Bangladesh, Vietnam, Malaysia, Nepal. In one year that flipped. Exports crashed to 0.5 million tonnes and India started importing.
Why? Because the ethanol program started buying maize in bulk.
Once sugar production started tightening (which is exactly why the government is importing sugar today), the ethanol machine needed maize to feed on. Ethanol distilleries started outbidding poultry farms for the same maize the country eats and feeds to chickens. Prices went from ₹15,000 to ₹25,000 per tonne. Chicken prices rose - Imagine your protein requirements can't be fullfilled due to ethanol :p
The Poultry Federation of India formally asked the government for duty-free maize imports because they were losing the auction to fuel.
The government keeps repeating the ₹1.98 lakh crore in forex savings number, since 2014, from crude oil India didn't import.
But nobody is netting it against the new imports the program is creating. Sugar today. Maize since 2024.
I spent two months on this and made a 17 minute doc. It's the only video you'll need to understand every facet of India's ethanol program - https://youtu.be/LrgrNPp0lvY