Built a Polymarket airdrop checker. Everyone calls POLY the biggest airdrop in web3, median wallet across 1.85M scored 31/100
Upfront, I run an analytics site for Polymarket, so this is my thing and the numbers come from our own index. Take that as you will.
Reason I built it. There are something like nine POLY allocation estimators live right now and most of them either want you to connect a wallet or quote you a token amount for a token that does not exist. There is also at least one page impersonating Polymarket with a check eligibility button that just drains you. So the bar was low.
What it actually does. You paste an address, nothing to connect and nothing to sign. It scores that wallet against the eight metrics that showed up most often across fifteen published airdrop formulas, Arbitrum, Optimism, dYdX, LayerZero, Jito, Jupiter, EigenLayer and so on. Weights are printed on the page. Farmer risk is a separate number instead of being folded into the score, so a big volume wallet cannot hide behind it.
The aggregate came out more interesting than I expected. Across 1,848,077 wallets with at least 10 fills and 100 dollars of notional, the median readiness score is 31 out of 100. Only 636 wallets score above 90. 87,186 carry farming shaped patterns, mostly entries clustered up near a dollar where there is almost no risk left.
What surprised me most is that raw volume is a weak signal historically. Across those fifteen formulas, adjusted volume appeared in 8 and was almost never linear, dYdX gave 30x the allocation for 1000x the volume. Distinct active days and capital held over time appeared nearly as often and were taken much more literally. Realised profit appeared in 2 out of 15.
Things it does not do, since I would rather say it than have someone find out. It cannot tell you your allocation, no criteria exist yet and Polymarket's own help page still says no airdrop has been announced. It does not check funding graph clustering because we do not index USDC transfers, and the page says NOT CHECKED there instead of showing a fake clean. And if you paste your MetaMask address it will probably show nothing, because Polymarket trades through a proxy wallet, you want the address from your Polymarket profile URL or just type your username.
Genuinely curious what people here think about the filtering question. LayerZero only qualified about 21% of wallets that had touched the protocol and Arbitrum around 27%. If Polymarket does something similar, most of that 1.85M never sees anything regardless of score. If you were the one designing it, what would you gate on?