u/100onblack22

I find it strange how the consensus opinion was that the 4-year cycle is dead, but now after the recent dip the consensus is that the 4-year cycle is “confirmed”. It seems to be a complete and sudden narrative shift in the eyes of the public. Personally, like many others, I have maintained my investment strategy based on the 4-year cycle, but my main issue with this now is that it seems too many people are in the same boat. This leads me to the age-old saying of “it’s too good to be true”. Are we all really going to come out of this with 2x, 3x, or even 5x returns after the alleged bottom in Q4? I may be overthinking it but my gut tells me I shouldn’t be in the same headspace as the majority, as the majority is usually the group holding the bags. Then again, maybe I’m just a hyper-contrarian.

I hope I’m wrong for thinking this, but it would be strange to see everything play out the way it’s supposed to and we come out with life changing returns. Especially with MSTR being a big target for Bitcoin holders wanting a levered position. Theoretically, if Bitcoin reaches a new ATH around $250k, MSTR would likely trade at well over $1k/share. That would (roughly) be a 4x for Bitcoin holders, a 10x for MSTR holders, and a 20x for levered MSTR holders. Does anyone else think that it’s too good to be true for it to be this easy and simple?

My portfolio contains 90 stocks plus 2 commodities, all of which are recurring weekly buys. I believe that most of these higher rated companies have an inevitably about them that is impossible to ignore, a gatekeeper if you will, while the lower rated companies provide the pure-play aspect that I believe to be 100% necessary. Either way, nearly every company here is contributing in one way or another to the future of civilization. These 92 positions are separated into 10 groups with the majority of my capital invested in the higher rated groups. Each month I reevaluate and potentially redistribute my capital allotment. In a way I have created my own ETF. This setup allows me to invest $72,500/year and I plan to do so until 2035, when I will retire. Everything will remain consistent, except for my Bitcoin & MSTR holdings. I will stop accumulating Bitcoin at any price above $100K. I will still hold, just not accumulate. However, I will sell my MSTR position during this next bull market to disperse back into Bitcoin cold storage. This is my way of amplifying my BTC holdings during these bearish times as MSTR will outpace BTC during the bull market. Everything else is just a simple DCA over the next decade.

Here is my personal portfolio presented as a watchlist and ranked in order based on my personal parameters and research (happy to discuss any of these companies):

Commodities:
$250/week ($150 Silver/$100 Bitcoin)

1 - Bitcoin (98)
2 - Silver (94)

Stocks:

- Group 1 ($180/week) -

1 - MSFT (97)
2 - AMZN (96)
3 - NVDA (96)
4 - GE (96)
5 - GOOG (95)
6 - AVGO (95)
7 - LLY (95)
8 - NOW (95)
9 - LIN (95)
10 - ORCL (95)

- Group 2 ($160/week) -

11 - ASML (94)
12 - AAPL (94)
13 - ANET (94)
14 - FTAI (94)
15 - AXP (94)
16 - CRWD (94)
17 - RYCEY (94)
18 - ISRG (93)
19 - SPCX (93)
20 - DHR (93)

- Group 3 ($140/week) -

21 - NFLX (93)
22 - VRTX (92)
23 - SCCO (92)
24 - JNJ(92)
25 - TER (92)
26 - PLTR (91)
27 - CCJ (91)
28 - ALAB (91)
29 - LMT (91)
30 - NXE(90)

- Group 4 ($120/week) -

31 - AVAV (90)
32 - NOC (89)
33 - PH (89)
34 - MU (89)
35 - TSLA (89)
36- MSTR (89)
37 - IVPAF (89)
38 - DE (89)
39 - TTWO (89)
40 - GEV (88)

- Group 5 ($100/week) -

41 - AMD (88)
42 - DNLI (88)
43 - IBM (88)
44 - TDY (87)
45 - SNDK (87)
46 - BE (87)
47 - KTOS (87)
48 - FCX (86)
49 - RKLB (86)
50 - ARLO (86)

- Group 6 ($80/week) -

51 - APLD (86)
52 - AVTR (86)
53 - MRVL (85)
54 - CVX (85)
55 - SOFI (85)
56 - DUK (85)
57 - TEM (85)
58 - LSCC (85)
59 - VRT (84)
60 - UUUU (84)

- Group 7 ($60/week) -

61 - HMC (84)
62 - DNN (84)
63 - SITM (84)
64 - XYZ (83)
65 - ASTS (83)
66 - NBIS (82)
67 - AA (82)
68 - CRSP (82)
69 - CRWV (81)
70 - NOPMF (81)

- Group 8 ($40/week) -

71 - CHRN (81)
72 - LASR (80)
73 - MRNA (80)
74 - UMAC (79)
75 - PL (78)
76 - HNST (78)
77 - NTLA(78)
78 - RXRX (77)
79 - QNT (76)
80 - TMC (76)

- Group 9 ($20/week) -

81 - IONQ (75)
82 - EDIT (75)
83 - MYO (74)
84 - CABA (73)
85 - QBTS (73)
86 - BEAM (72)
87 - BFLY (72)
88 - LCTX (71)
89 - RGTI (71)
90 - BRCHF (70)

CASH: $100/week
*Money is allotted strategically to whichever stock I believe to be a great buying opportunity for that week. Currently it is MSFT & GOOG getting the extra capital until a higher value entry presents itself.

ROTH IRA:
($150/week)

1 - VXUS ($75)
2 - VTI ($30)
3 - COPX ($11.25)
4 - ROBO ($11.25)
5 - URA ($11.25)
6 - XBI ($11.25)

I stay fairly involved to Bitcoin and MSTR discussions, but I never understand the hate for Michael Saylor. I get the initial suspicion, as he was convicted for securities fraud in the early 2000’s, and that he has somewhat delusional takes, but he’s not really a short term bull. Most of his keynote speeches involve him saying that Bitcoin needs to take up 1% of global capital, but it may take the world 10+ years to get there. I find that a lot more bearish than most of what I read on the Bitcoin forums.

What he says isn’t really too crazy. If Bitcoin can get adopted by the store of value category (Real Estate, Art, Gold, etc..) than I don’t think it’s far fetched to see Bitcoin become a $10 trillion asset within the next 10 years or so. I would honestly say that most of us that hold Bitcoin would agree with that. So what’s everyone’s problem with Micheal Saylor??

Generally, investing plays with everyone’s mind at least once before we understand the game. It happens to the best of us. “Investors” pile in when things are well, and panic sell when things get grim. It’s only natural to feel that way, but that does not make it correct. We have all of the resources to understand what to do, yet we fail over and over again. “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful” is the best quote in investing history (from a source as reputable as they come), yet most of us can’t quite get over the psychological hurdle. Even our own conviction is challenged, and often times overcome with doubt. Why? The simple answer is that fear is a tool used by our minds to prevent pain. In my opinion, to succeed in investing requires a void of all emotions. Don’t feel good when you win, and don’t feel bad when you lose. Feel nothing.

When it comes to Bitcoin, everything is amplified tenfold. You can be on top of the world on Monday, and questioning your entire life on Tuesday. Investing in Bitcoin is nothing like the stock market, or precious metals, or real estate. Investing in Bitcoin requires monk-like discipline to not only succeed, but to maintain your mental health. The violent price swings will immediately wipe out everyone wanting to make a quick buck. These swings will also exhaust many of the true believers leaving only the strongest standing. Again, we’ve all been there at least once. I believe Bitcoin is beautiful in that way. It almost acts as an investment on your own mind. If you can weather the storm brought onto oneself, you will be rewarded. If you can’t handle it, you will make a decision based purely on emotion and we all know how that works out. My favorite aspect of Bitcoin is the unparalleled amount of opportunity it provides to become stronger and wiser.

Bitcoin is the people’s money. I can securely take my Bitcoin anywhere in the world with no issues, as if it were invisible. I can truly own my Bitcoin unlike anything in the world other than precious metals. Even if you owned your house outright, you will still always pay fees to own it. So is it really owned? Fiat currency is at the peril of its government, so is that really owned? Precious metals and bitcoin are the only investments you truly own, but then we run into the issue of safekeeping and traveling with precious metals whereas Bitcoin in a cold wallet is truly owned by you. No middle man. No governing body. No third party, even second party. Bitcoin is an incredibly secure one-party system. There are absolutely no requirements, not even a name. Your entire Bitcoin identity is an address on a network with a 12-24 word password only you control. Simple, but wildly effective. This is a fully independent system built by, and for the people. When enough of the people gain the strength to truly become investors instead of just buyers, that is when Bitcoin reaches full form. Anything from now to then is just the opportunity to sharpen your mind.