Who will we play in QF 1? An analysis.
LADDER:
Bris 60 119.5
Haw 60 117.3
Mel 60 111.2
Gee 56 120.2
Ade 56 115.1
FIXTURES:
Coll v Bris
Mel v WB
Geel v Rich
Ade v GWS
WCE v Haw
First off, I’m going to assume that Hawthorn will beat the Eagles and Geelong will beat Richmond in all scenarios. The other 3 games are potentially up for grabs.
If Brisbane and Hawthorn both win, we’ll play Hawthorn, unless they flog the Eagles and pull past Brisbane on percentage, in which case we’ll play Brisbane. In this scenario, the others don’t matter due to percentage or points.
If Brisbane lose to Collingwood, and Hawthorn and Melbourne win, we’ll play Melbourne.
If both Brisbane and Melbourne lose and Geelong win, we’ll play Geelong.
For us to play Adelaide, both Geelong and Hawthorn would have to lose (which I said at the top they wouldn’t) as well as Melbourne. They’re very unlikely to catch Brisbane on percentage even if Brisbane loses - unless both games were a big blow out. So it’s technically possible but highly unlikely that we could play Adelaide.
For what it’s worth, I think Brisbane will drop to 4th on percentage and we’ll play them.
Of course, if Hawthorn or Geelong do actually lose, that complicates things, although it would generally result in us playing Melbourne.