Equal Weighted UPRO / RSSB / RSST / GDE
I have been doing a lot of reading in this sub, as well as some messing around on Bestfolio. Long story short, I have around a 40 year horizon and am currently in the accumulation phase with a very small portfolio.
I have been trying to come up with a true set-and-forget portfolio that only requires monthly rebalancing. I am using the Nasdaq as my benchmark to beat. I don't think I am at a point where hedging is especially important, but I have read enough to determine they offer more than just a drag on CAGR.
With that being said, in an effort to maintain as much equity exposure as possible while still maintaining reasonable exposure to hedges, I have came up with the following proposed allocation of funds: 25% each UPRO, RSSB, RSST, GDE. This was originally arbitrary, but after messing with the weightings on Bestfolio, it seemed to provide the best results.
This provides notional exposure of:
U.S. Equities ~ 140%
Int. Equties ~ 10%
MF ~ 25%
U.S. Treasuries ~ 25%
Gold ~ 22.5%
Heres the backtest results I got using Bestfolio (CAGR and Max Monthly DD):
| Period | UPRO/RSSB/RSST/GDE | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| Full History | CAGR 17.8% / DD -64.5% | CAGR 14.2% / DD -81.1% |
| Mar. 2000 - Dec. 2025 | 13.4% / -64.5% | 7.7% / -81.1% |
| Oct. 2007 - Dec. 2025 | 15.8% / -64.5% | 15.4% / -49.7% |
| Mar. 2009 - Dec. 2025 | 24.9% / -33.1% | 21.5% / -32.6% |
| Feb. 2020 - Dec. 2025 | 23.5% / -33.1% | 19.8% / -32.6% |
My backtesting did not account for using the adapted Catastrophe Break from: https://bestfolio.app/blog/catastrophe-brake-leveraged-portfolios which I assume would significantly reduce those DD figures. I did not know how to test for it.
I am still very new to this, so my question to those who are more seasoned is whether there is anything I am missing? Is there anything I should do to improve my allocation? Is this a reasonable alternative to holding a 2x SPY or QQQ unhedged for an investor with my horizon?