u/AcornAl

Interesting analysis & charts of various factors behind the WHO's concerns.

• Ebola cases in the first 100 days
• 'Hidden' transmission - deaths in the community
• Attacks on aid workers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
• Mass movement in the DRC
• CFRs of recent Ebola virus outbreaks

Another recent discussion here on this prediction, and the latest WHO Disease Outbreak News release (14 Aug)

Scientists used an artificial intelligence program to create new viral genomes that are different from any known natural viruses and that targeted specific hosts, according to a new study.

[..]

Scientists from Stanford University and the Arc Institute then used the AI to generate thousands of genome combinations within a specific framework – specifically one that could be hosted by an E. coli bacteria cell. Of the thousands of genomes that the AI generated, scientists built and tested about 300 in the lab and found that 16 were viable viruses.

The new viruses are bacteriophages, which infect bacteria but cannot affect humans.

[..]

According to the research, the genetic library helped the AI “learn the evolutionary constraints” of natural genomes, but the scientists found that one of the new viruses had an aspect that was “evolutionarily distant” — suggesting that the AI prompted changes that could have taken millions of years for natural evolution to show was possible.

Tests showed that a mixture of the new viruses could overcome antibacterial resistance in some of the E. coli strains, something that a “comparable mixture of naturally sourced” phages could not.

This “lays out a path for generating adaptive and resilient phage therapies against rapidly evolving pathogens,” the authors wrote.

[..]

“Although this is promising for life sciences applications, it also raises urgent biosafety and biosecurity questions,” doctors from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security wrote in a corresponding article published in Science.

“The ability to compose viral genomes using generative AI now exists; the governance to safely steer it does not,” they wrote.

The authors of the response article single out one particularly risky area that they say should not be pursued: eukaryote-infecting pathogens, which can cause a variety of infections in humans, including malaria and certain yeast infections.

“Such genomes might encode new pathogens that can infect humans, animals, or plants in ways that cannot be contained by existing countermeasures,” they wrote.

A discussion last year here on the pre-print.

Louisiana health officials are urging residents to take precautions against a flesh-eating bacterial infection following the deaths of five people this year.

The Louisiana Department of Health issued a warning about the infection, known as Vibrio vulnificus, in a press release on Thursday.

The department said nine people have been infected this year and five have died. By comparison, Louisiana averaged seven cases and one death annually over the previous 10 years during the same time period.

All of this year’s reported cases were linked to wounds exposed to seawater, and all patients had underlying health conditions, the department added.

[...]

Louisiana Department of Health Statement

The state of Tlaxcala has reported its first case of New World screwworm (NWS) in a human, along with three other probable cases and two ruled out, according to the head of the Tlaxcala Health Secretariat (Sesa), Rigoberto Zamudio Meneses, through his official social media accounts.

This information was confirmed during Thursday’s “Circular Dialogue,” organized by the state government’s Communications Coordination Office (CCOM). It was reported that the case involved an elderly resident of the Santa María Acuitlapilco community in the municipality of Tlaxcala, who is already receiving medical care to prevent complications from the parasite.

[...]

Regarding the affected elderly person, the parasite was detected in the ear. However, the patient is out of danger and remains under medical observation to ensure that no complications develop.

He also regretted that the patient was an elderly person living in conditions of neglect. The individual went to a health center to receive medical attention, which made it possible to detect the parasite and intervene immediately.

Jorge Caballero Román, the state delegate for Agriculture, noted that cases of New World screwworm in humans tend to occur among people who are living in situations of neglect and who have lost sensitivity in some part of their bodies.

He explained that this is because the parasite lays its eggs in open wounds, allowing the larvae to feed on living tissue and flesh. This causes pain that may go unnoticed when a person has lost sensation and lacks a support network to help care for wounds and monitor their proper healing.

Playing with a side project, and trying to determine the start dates for all of the US seasons, 1 through 13.

Any additional info that I've missed would be cool to try and more accurately determine these. I've assume references to thanksgiving were for the US holiday.

I've tried to keep spoilers to a minimum.

• S01 - 22 Oct 2014
• S02 - Mid-Aug or mid-Sep 2015
• S03 - late summer or autumn
• S04 - 21 Oct 2016
• S05 - Sep 2017?
• S06 - 10 Sep 2018
• S07 - 18 Sep 2019
• S08 - 17 Sep 2020
• S09 - 18 Sep 2021
• S10 - 2 Sep 2022
• S11 - 7 Sep 2023
• S12 - 21 May 2024
• S13 - 7 Sep 2025

Season 01 (2014)

I've seen estimates of Nov to Dec, but these seem wrong.

E04 If anyone knows >!Mitch!< or their social media, on day 6 they noted:

>It's my little girl's birthday. She turns four years old today.

Two references to Thanksgiving that fell on 27 Nov.

E07 - 18:02 (Day 25)

>I don't want to spend [bleep] Christmas out here. I want to spend it with the people I care about. Or even [bleep] Thanksgiving.

E09 (Day 42 - E10 if you include the special).

>(voiceover) I think tomorrow is, like, Thanksgiving.

So these suggest Oct, and the second would place the drop-off on 17 Oct.

However E10, a contestant shows off the stick they were tracking days and stated

>First thing every morning I'd get up, take my kukri, and I just lived to put a new notch in it. Each one represents overcoming something every day, and I know that [one] was October 22nd.

Based on wind patterns off the coast of Solander Island, a drop date of 21/22 Oct seems to be the closest match. Poor weather data recorded at Quatsino to compare.

So the drop date is likely 22 Oct.

Side-note, there was a full or nearly full moon shown on day 6 and 43, so at least one of these are wrong (a moon cycle is 29.5 days).

Season 02 (2015)

Limited data, but most suggest a much earlier drop date.

E11 - If anyone knows >!Nicole!< or their social media, on day 52 they noted:

>Today is my youngest son's eighth birthday.

Only reference to Thanksgiving (26 Nov) was when the winner was asked about the hypothetical scenario in the The Reunion special.

>If you were forced to stay there longer, could you have gone?

>Thanksgiving, I wrote off; I knew, "Okay, I'm out here for Thanksgiving; I'm gonna miss that big feast and everything and miss my kids."

This implies they considered this, but didn't have to miss it. Some time before 21 Sep.

And I'm unsure if this is a reference to the larger new moon tides (11 Nov) or first quarter (18 Nov).

>I knew I was coming into a bad tide cycle, where it was gonna be hard to fish

More analysis (see below) narrows this to the middle of the month, but what month is still unclear.

Drop date mid-Aug or mid-Sep.

Season 03 (2016)

A late autumn start would point to late May / early June.

E07 - >!Carleigh!< had their birthday on day 53

E08 - >!Megan!< on day 68

>Today is my, um, son's sixth birthday.

Using Bariloche Aerodrome (75 km NE similar elevation), temperatures would have significantly fallen around 10 May (-7C/19F) that didn't seem apparent on the show.

Casting usually takes around 2 to 3 months, and they had a winter bootcamp in NY

Day 75 - Orange Peel Fungus seen, fruits summer to autumn, but checking iNaturalist, observations seem common between March and June. Rose hips showed leave fall plus plump hips, suggest late autumn/early winter.

Possibly more importantly was that the fishing season at Lago Escondido is was 1 Nov 2015 to 31 May 2016 with a mandatory return of fish in May. Possible late summer start?

Drop date unknown.

Season 04 (2016)

E10 - day 65

>Who would have ever thought we'd be out here till Christmas Eve?

>I cannot believe that we have spent Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas out here.

E10 - day 66

>Yay, Merry Christmas, everybody.

Drop date 21 October

Season 05 (2017)

Lack of references to thanksgiving or other holidays suggests this was before 24 Sep.

Drop date unknown.

Season 06 (2018)

E09 - day 52

>It's freaking Halloween!

Drop date 10 Sep

Season 07 (2019)

E08 - day 44

>Happy Halloween.

Late game reference to Christmas

>So today is >!99, Christmas Day. !<

Drop date 18 Sep

Season 08 (2020)

E11 - day 71 (thanksgiving was 26 Nov)

>Happy Thanksgiving to you all.

Also gill nets were not allowed until day 45, if someone has the fishing regulations they would help confirm the date.

Drop date 17 Sep

Season 09 (2021)

E08 - day 44 (2 different contestants)

>Happy Halloween, y'all.

>Happy Halloween!

Not a specific date, but at day 61 this confirms it's before 25 Sep

>there's one piece of grouse left. But I've been saving that for American Thanksgiving.

>It's not American Thanksgiving, but I'm gonna have to eat the last piece of grouse.

Drop date 18 Sep

Season 10 (2022)

E09 - day 43 >!Alan!<

>Happy birthday to me!

E10 - day 51 >!Mikey!<

>Today is my son's fifth birthday.

First snow was day 40, takes a few days to clear before another small dump day 50, with fronts day 53 and 63 match up nicely with the observations from Lynn Lake.

Drop date 2 Sep

Season 11 (2023)

E04 - Day 12 >!Timber !<

>Happy birthday, Elliot.

E11 - Day 74 >!William!<

>It is my boy's birthday.

Based on the sunrise/sunset seemed like a good way, but the low sun angle and long twilight makes these hard to pin-point exact solar time, and it relies on the captions to be accurate.

• Day one: sunset before 10:49pm 40F - after 27 Aug
• Day two: sunrise after 6:42am - after 22 Aug
• Day 18: sunrise after 7:47am - after 8 Sep
• Day 29: sunrise after 9:14am 33F - after 2 Oct
• Day 71: sunrise around 11:01am - around 1 Nov
• Day 76: sun still up at 3:17 - before 4 Dec

Unsourced Wikipedia reference suggesting the 18th Sep

However, the best indicator seems to be the first snow. At Inuvik, 3 cm was recorded 8 Oct that lasted for a couple days, before more snow 11 Oct that stayed around. This seems to match the snow seen on the show. First snow starts afternoon day 31, decent amount morning day 32.

Snow readings are apparently done early in the morning, so that suggests a start date of 7 Sep.

Side-note: The main event day (>!Moose!<) suggested it was 58F, which is a couple of degrees hotter than the actual max that day. If they were taking the temps at base camp, these were likely slightly hotter than those taken in a weather station that would be in an instrument shelter.

Season 12 (2024)

An autumn start would point to late May / early June.

Family situation: >!Death of a family member (May 23, 2024) before the contestant made it home. Without any delays for re-feeding or flight booking, day 15 + 1 day travel !< places the drop date on or before 7 May? Alternatively, they signed a "do not notify" clause and arrived before May 23.

However, the unusual weather event is likely the best method to determine the drop date.

Drop date 21 May (±1 day)

Season 13 (2025)

Unsourced Wikipedia reference suggesting the 16th Sep.

No nets allowed for the first 10 days. This matches the Peel and Husky Channels closures between August 7 - September 15 (inclusive).

This suggests a drop date of 6 Sep

First snow was seen during the first med check on day 21. This only lasted a few days, matching the snowfall recorded at Inuvik on the 28 Sep.

Drop date 8 Sep

For the first time, the Ministry of Health declared a health alert for hantavirus, a measure that extends from the Atacama region to the Magallanes region and will be in effect until July 31, 2027.

The decree published in the Official Gazette also considers a situation of "multi-risk health" as it occurs simultaneously with other risks such as arboviruses, that is, diseases transmitted by mosquitoes such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya and yellow fever; and avian influenza.

In this regard, the Undersecretary of Public Health, Dr. Alejandra Pizarro, explained that "the hantavirus causes a disease that is endemic to Chile, transmitted by the long-tailed pygmy rice rat that lives in rural and semi-rural areas of almost the entire country. As a ministry, we are constantly monitoring its behavior and we are very concerned and working because this year the lethality of the virus has increased, and due to this, we decided to declare this alert."

With this, Pizarro indicated that "until last week there were 46 infections and 18 deaths, which represents a lethality of 39%."

Meanwhile, in 2025 there were 44 infections and eight deaths, meaning the case fatality rate was 18%. So far this year, cases have occurred in the regions of Valparaíso, Metropolitan, O'Higgins, Maule, Ñuble, Biobío, La Araucanía, Los Ríos, Los Lagos, and Aysén.

The alert, which is preventive and preparatory, will allow the granting of extraordinary powers in the face of serious health risk emergencies to strengthen surveillance, timely resource management, the hiring of specialized personnel, health control action and the expedited acquisition of supplies through direct contracting.

The alert does not imply that there is an ongoing epidemic or that healthcare is overwhelmed.

"Hantavirus is not exclusively a summer virus, as the long-tailed pygmy rice rat is present year-round. That's why we urge everyone to take extreme precautions: avoid touching rodents, ventilate homes before entering if they have been closed, clean unused spaces with water and bleach, and keep garbage covered and food stored away," Pizarro explained.

Furthermore, he indicated that "it is essential to be attentive to the symptoms: fever, intense muscle pain, and difficulty breathing. If someone experiences these symptoms and has been in rural or semi-rural areas where the long-tailed pygmy rice rat may have been present, they should immediately go to a health center and inform the medical staff so that they can consider a hantavirus diagnosis in a timely manner."

It should be remembered that, since December 2025, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has maintained an epidemiological alert due to the rise in hantavirus cases throughout the Southern Cone, and that the Ministry of Health had an epidemiological alert in place since November of last year.

Other diseases

The Health Alert decree also covers diseases transmitted by the Aedes aegypti, Aedes vexans, and Anopheles pseudopunctipennis mosquitoes, such as dengue and Zika. According to the alert, these diseases "have a high epidemic potential, which could generate high demand and overload for health facilities." For these cases, the alert is in effect from Arica to Los Ríos.

In the case of avian influenza, the alert was extended to the entire country, because unlike other years, the disease has been concentrated in wild and farm birds, not in poultry farms, increasing the risk of exposure for people.

UK holidaymakers are being warned about a nasty infectious disease called cyclosporiasis that can cause explosive diarrhoea, after a sharp rise in cases.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said 67 cases have been reported since April, with many of them among travellers returning from Mexico.

[..]

Between 30 April and 15 July 2026, 30 cases have been reported in England, 27 in Scotland and 10 in Wales, according to the UKHSA.

Of the 52 cases with travel information available, 48 reported having travelled to Mexico, with many saying they had stayed in either the white sand beach resort area of Riviera Maya, or slightly north of there in coastal Cancún.

The UKHSA said those affected reported staying in "a range of different hotels and consuming a variety of different food and drink within their resort as part of an all-inclusive holiday package".

There are ongoing investigations and monitoring of the situation.

[..]

Some who have been struck by it describe having to use the toilet up to 20 times a day, due to the frequent and explosive nature of the watery diarrhoea that's the main symptom.

The intestinal illness has recently affected thousands of people in the US.

Nick Palmiter, who is 29 and from Monroe County in Michigan, told the BBC he experienced feeling constant pressure and bubbling, "almost like you have a balloon in your stomach".

Although most cases resolve on their own, antibiotics can be given to treat severe or prolonged infections.

The UKHSA said it anticipates there will be more cases linked to increased summer travel to Mexico and possibly the US too.

Dr Philip Veal from the agency said: "If you develop symptoms after returning from travel, such as watery diarrhoea, loss of appetite, weight loss, stomach cramps or pain, bloating, increased wind, nausea, fatigue or other flu-like symptoms, please seek medical attention and inform your healthcare professional of your travel history."

Mysterious deaths that extinguished entire families. A cemetery unable to cope with the flood of dead bodies. Taxi drivers who refused to go to certain parts of town. Months before the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) officially declared its latest Ebola outbreak on 15 May, the disease was already sowing fear and death in Mongbwalu, a gold mining town in Ituri province, an unpublished analysis by three researchers suggests.

After interviewing almost 100 people in and around Mongbwalu—including nurses and doctors, community leaders, survivors, grieving family members, coffinmakers, and cemetery caretakers—the team concluded the epidemic ignited in January, and perhaps even earlier, in Mongbwalu’s outskirts. A patient seeking care may have brought it to the city from a rural area.

By the time health authorities in the distant capital, Kinshasa, recognized the disease as Ebola, a “widespread, sprawling epidemic” was already underway, the team says in a PowerPoint presentation that is circulating in a WhatsApp group in the DRC and that Science obtained. One of the researchers, anthropologist Jules Villa of the Pasteur Institute in Paris, also presented the findings to a group of researchers on a Zoom call today, and Villa said the team is also submitting a correspondence piece to The Lancet.

“This could and probably should have been detected earlier,” says a former U.S. official who was involved in the response to the largest Ebola epidemic so far, between 2014 and ’16 in West Africa. The big question is why the disease was not recognized as Ebola much earlier, says the former official, who asked not to be named to speak freely about the DRC’s surveillance system. “Many in the community [knew] something serious was going on.”

The failure to raise the alarm has made controlling the epidemic much harder. With 3360 cases recorded since mid-May, including 1487 deaths, the epidemic is now about to become the second largest on record. “If the outbreak could have been contained in Mongbwalu, it would have been much easier to control,” says Manuel Albela, an epidemiologist with Doctors Without Borders (MSF) who’s currently working in Mongbwalu.

Anecdotal reports of early cases had suggested the cradle of the epidemic was Mongbwalu, some 75 kilometers northwest of the provincial capital Bunia, where the epidemic exploded later. To investigate that theory, the team—which also included Roger Buju, a medical researcher at the University of Bunia, and Alain Alithum Bero, a social scientist working for a nongovernmental organization in Ituri—spent more than 1 month in the town, with funding from the World Health Organization (WHO). “This was not an attempt to find a ‘patient zero,’ but to gain a greater understanding of the outbreak from the perspective of the communities where it first began,” WHO said in a statement sent to Science.

[...]

One transmission chain started with a 50-year-old woman identified only as A who died on 25 January after vomiting blood. Her mother died 6 days later; her husband fell ill but recovered. On 11 February, A’s nephew died, bleeding profusely from facial orifices. He was buried the next day, during a funeral attended by many people. The nephew’s wife died a few days later, and then their child. Several more people in the family passed away. Others fell ill but recovered.

Altogether, the scientists identified more than 500 suspected cases between mid-January and 15 May. Medical staff were hit hard, as often happens early during Ebola outbreaks: Thirteen “front-line workers”—including nurses, midwives, and Red Cross first responders—died, and 42 others fell ill but recovered, Villa told researchers on today’s call. Some private health care facilities closed and health care workers fled. Mongbwalu’s cemetery was overstretched, with as many as 20 burials in a single day.

Until now, estimates about when the epidemic started had relied mostly on genetic evidence. Comparing the sequences of Ebola virus found in patients allows scientists to build a family tree and estimate the age of the earliest common ancestor. One such analysis, posted online in early July, suggested the earliest cases occurred in mid-March. But most of the genomes analyzed so far came from Bunia, where the disease erupted later. “I think January is plausible … because we don’t have many sequences from Mongbwalu,” says an author of the analysis, evolutionary biologist Andrew Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh.

[..]

As late as 8 May, the chief medical officer for the Mongbwalu health zone, Ruben Dedja Denyo, acknowledged “unusual occurrences” to a local newspaper but stressed “there is no epidemic, as the recorded cases do not present similar symptoms.” One week later, the DRC declared its 17th Ebola outbreak.

Congo’s Ebola epidemic started at least 4 months before it was detected

The Venezuelan Medical Federation issued an alert regarding the emergence of a pathology that has reportedly caused deaths in the states of Barinas and Anzoátegui .

“A generalized pathology has been reported, clinically characterized by a severe compromise of the general condition and an acute failure of the cardiorespiratory system, which has caused multiple deaths of rapid evolution,” the institution reported in a statement, after receiving the information from the College of Physicians of the State of Barinas .

Among the deceased are doctors Jhovanny Silva, Rafael Díaz, and Cecilia Chávez . The situation has generated anguish, fear, and concern among the residents of the state, who have reported other deaths.

The Venezuelan Medical Federation questioned the response of the regional health authorities and denounced a lack of transparency in the handling of the data .

“ We regret that this situation is being downplayed and simplified by the entity's Single Health Authority , whose statistical management and epidemiological information lacks transparency, dismissing the seriousness of the facts and diluting them in generalities,” the organization denounced.

He also mentioned three deaths that occurred two days earlier at the El Tigre Hospital, in Anzoátegui state, a region endemic to hantavirus .

The victims belonged to the same family from the Miranda Municipality and presented a similar pathology to that reported in Barinas, the Descifrado media outlet reported on Saturday.

“It is essential to remember that publishing weekly epidemiological information is a health obligation of the Executive branch. The authorities have maintained secrecy and opacity for more than eleven years , with only two or three exceptions of very brief and inadequate reports issued some two or three months ago. This alarming lack of data deprives doctors, the health sector, and the national public of key tools for prevention,” the Federation warned.

In light of the deaths recorded in both entities, the organization requested the activation and maintenance of strict epidemiological surveillance under the protocols for "Hemorrhagic Febrile Syndrome" and "Respiratory Febrile Syndrome," linked to the hemorrhagic disease of Venezuela, known as Guanarito.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is response the the government official statement on the deaths.

Ministry of Popular Power for Health (OFFICIAL STATEMENT)

The Ministry of Popular Power for Health informs the public about two recent events in the states of Anzoátegui and Barinas.

We regret to report the deaths of three patients in Anzoátegui with a confirmed diagnosis of Hantavirus. This virus is transmitted by rodents in rural and agricultural areas, primarily through the inhalation of urine, feces, or saliva particles in enclosed spaces. There is no scientific evidence of person-to-person transmission in our country.

In Barinas, we regret the loss of two medical professionals whose causes of death are still under investigation. These are localized events that do not represent a risk to the general community. The two events are unrelated, and any connection between the reported situations has been ruled out.

The National Public Health System remains deployed and operational to guarantee the health security of all Venezuelans. The final results of the investigation will be communicated in due course through official channels.

CARACAS, JULY 21, 2026

Three children have died and four others are on ventilator support after multiple cases of the Chandipura virus outbreak were reported in Gujarat over the past 14 days, putting the state on high alert and intensifying surveillance and containment measures.

The sudden rise in cases of the deadly Chandipura virus (CHPV), a sand fly-borne virus that causes acute encephalitis syndrome (AES), particularly among children, has raised concerns among health authorities and parents. According to official data, 32 suspected cases have been reported in the two weeks since July 1.

Of these, test reports have been received for 23 patients. Seven have tested positive for the virus, while 16 tested negative. Among the seven confirmed cases, three children have died and four are currently undergoing treatment on ventilator support. Test reports for nine suspected patients are still awaited.

Health Minister Praful Pansheriya said all seven confirmed patients were below the age of 10.

[...]

Chandipura virus causes fever and flu-like symptoms and can lead to acute encephalitis, or inflammation of the brain. The virus belongs to the Vesiculovirus genus of the Rhabdoviridae family and is transmitted through vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies. It was first isolated in 1965 from a patient in Chandipura village in Maharashtra's Nagpur district.

Just noting that primary transmission appears to be sandflies, both ticks and mosquitos could potentially carry this virus, and some even consider this to have pandemic potential since a range of potential carriers have been detected; mainly rodents, but antibodies have been detected in domestic animals. Still a few unknowns.

The last known US person living with polio and relying on an iron lung has died aged 78.

Martha Lillard, who contracted polio at age five and spent most of her life dependent on an iron lung machine that helped her breathe, died on 26 June in Oklahoma, according to an online obituary.

Lillard slept inside the metal cylinder device that enclosed her body while changing air pressure within forced air in and out of her lungs. Despite that, she attended grade school for two hours daily before completing the rest of her education through tutoring.

“They told her she wasn’t supposed to live past 20 years old,” Cindy McVey, Lillard’s younger sister, told the Associated Press on Friday. “She had the enthusiasm and the drive to continue living and make the best of her life.”

McVey said she believes the effects of a long-term case of Covid-19 contributed to her sister’s death. According to McVey, Lillard’s death certificate lists chronic pulmonary failure and post-polio syndrome as her causes of death.

[...]

Iron lungs helped save thousands of lives during those epidemics, although they were intended only for short-term use.

As vaccination campaigns expanded in the late 1950s, the machines largely disappeared and were replaced by other breathing devices inserted directly into the throat.

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says widespread vaccination reduced annual US polio cases to fewer than 100 in the 1960s and fewer than 10 in the 1970s. In 1979, polio was declared eliminated in the US, meaning it was no longer routinely spread.

In Michigan, the number of reported cases has risen to 572 as of Saturday, July 4, up from 170 on Tuesday, June 30. Cases remain the highest in Monroe, Lenawee, Washtenaw, Wayne, Shiawassee, Jackson, Oakland and Livingston counties.

As of July 4, 2026, no specific produce grower/supplier, or specific produce type has been identified as the source of the outbreak.

Cyclosporiasis is an intestinal illness caused by the Cyclospora parasite. People can become infected by consuming food or water that contains the parasite. Cyclospora infects the small intestine (bowel) and usually causes frequent, watery and explosive diarrhea. The time between being exposed and becoming sick is usually about one week but can range from two days to two weeks or more. Untreated, the illness may last from a few days to more than a month. Symptoms may go away and then return.

Cyclosporiasis is not usually life-threatening, but dehydration from frequent bouts of diarrhea can cause severe illness, particularly among younger or older people and those who have weakened immune systems.

....

This appears to be a national outbreak affecting over 17 states, but cases have been concentrated in Michigan.

Cyclospora outbreak sickens almost 150 people (June 29)

CDC Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis

Between January and May 2026, 109 confirmed cases of Salmonella Bovismorbificans ST377 were reported from 10 European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries (Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Spain and the Netherlands) and the United Kingdom. The outbreak predominantly affected adult females (77 vs 31). Eighteen cases required hospitalisation. Two deaths were reported in Finland (one confirmed and one probable case).

Epidemiological and microbiological evidence identified alfalfa sprouted seeds traded from Italy as the primary vehicle of infection. Microbiological evidence included the detection of the outbreak strain in water samples collected during alfalfa sprouted seed harvesting in the Netherlands and Northern Ireland (UK). A Finnish sprouted seed producer was epidemiologically linked to cases in Finland.

Traceability investigations in Italy identified a common seed supplier in India, suggesting this area as a potential origin of seed contamination. The outbreak strain presumably started circulating in Europe in October 2025 via two alfalfa seed consignments, before being distributed across multiple countries.

Control measures included the withdrawal of the implicated consignments, recalls of related products, cessation of production and the destruction of suspected products. Following these interventions, case notifications decreased. However, further infections may occur until the source of contamination is fully identified and controlled, particularly because sprouted seeds can be sold as ready-to-eat products, representing a concern for microbial food safety.

Based on available information, the risk of infections is assessed as low-to-moderate for people in EU/EEA countries who frequently consume sprouted seeds.

Public health authorities are encouraged to interview new cases, sequence isolates, and share information in EpiPulse. Food safety authorities are encouraged to investigate the role of the environment in seed contamination. Seed producers should implement appropriate measures to minimise the contamination risk. Sprouted seed producers should implement adequate food safety management systems to ensure safe products reach the market.

Countries where cases have been reported:

• United Kingdom (30)
• Finland (35)
• Netherlands (17).
• Austria (2)
• Belgium (4)
• Czechia (1)
• Denmark (4)
• Germany (6),
• Ireland (6)
• Luxembourg (3)
• Spain (1)

Four countries also reported ongoing investigations of additional probable cases:

• Finland (30)
• Germany (13)
• Poland (4)
• Spain (3)

France on Wednesday announced its first confirmed case of Ebola identified on its territory, a doctor who had returned from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

France on Wednesday, June 24, announced its first confirmed case of Ebola identified on its territory, a doctor back from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is fighting a major outbreak. The case is the first of the deadly hemorrhagic fever identified outside the African continent during the current outbreak, which has also affected Uganda. It's also the first time Ebola has been detected in France.

In 2014, during a major outbreak in West Africa, two patients were transported to France, but they had been diagnosed abroad.

A doctor returning from a humanitarian mission in Congo has tested positive for Ebola, the country's first case of the virus during the current outbreak, the health ministry said on Wednesday.

The health ministry "confirms today the identification of a first positive case of Ebola virus disease on national territory", it said. Contacted by AFP, the ministry specified that the case was identified in mainland France.

The patient is being isolated and authorities are contact tracing, the ministry said, adding that the risk for the general European population was low.

Congo's Ebola outbreak, which has infected more than 1,000 people and killed 267, has had the largest number of confirmed cases within the first month of any episode of the disease, the World Health Organisation has said.

Ministry of Health, Families, Autonomy, and Persons with Disabilities statement (French)