▲ 5 r/oil
SPR vs Net Imports vs Spot
Another week, less oil more net imports.
Any takes?
u/Aggravating_Brain_50 — 12 hours ago
u/Aggravating_Brain_50
▲ 6 r/oil
Marine Traffic Today: Hormuz 1 - Ships 0
So (in regards to Tanker traffic only!) the alarming observation is this - notice how there is no inbound traffic at all, for miles and miles and miles.
Ships leaving to refill SPR, but zero inbound traffic.
Sure some diverted via pipelines, via trucks, via hot air balloons for all I know, but nonetheless, the world is still running a deficit, and on borrowed time.
What's your take?
u/Aggravating_Brain_50 — 1 month ago
US playing us all, or getting played; either way oil reserves are running out, slower, but still running out
I’m no expert, just an observer, but I’ve been running a thought exercise and want your take.
Trump recently claimed, "All good, tank bottoms don’t matter since we have traffic."
Let’s put that to the test, looking strictly at outbound traffic since June 15th:
-30% of traffic consisted of tankers (spiking closer to 50% today).
-99% of that tanker traffic went to Asia (China, India, Pakistan, and now Malaysia/Korea).
Over the past 10 days, 152 ships have passed. Roughly 50 were tankers. Most of these carry 750k to 1M barrels (not the 2M barrel VLCCs Trump claimed), but let’s be incredibly optimistic and assume 1.5 million barrels per tanker:
-50 tankers × 1.5M barrels = 75 million barrels transported.
Factoring in roughly 7M barrels of demand destruction and rerouting, we need about 7–8M barrels per day just to maintain current levels.
-75M barrels / 10 days = 7.5M barrels per day.
So, currently, we are roughly breaking even.
If 1% of that flow is dedicated to the US, that’s 75,000 bpd. Add in Trump’s alleged 100M barrels repurposed during the ceasefire since May (roughly 2.2M bpd over 45 days).
The US drawdown alone is 1.4–2.5M bpd. Effectively, they’re just managing the deficit. If you remove those 100M "repurposed" barrels, the math completely collapses. At this burn rate, we hit DOD emergency levels in 4–6 weeks, meaning physical shortages materialize unless the administration continues borderline-illegal drawdowns.
Yes, US oil corporations hold about 1 billion barrels, but that isn't government-owned. Meanwhile, Cushing is already hitting operational lows and enters the "sludge zone" next week. Expect reality to hit hard right after the 4th of July once the optics no longer matter.
Here’s what people are ignoring: the 1,000+ ships that sat idle in the Gulf for four months. Beyond the risk premiums of re-entering the Gulf, those ships desperately need drydocking and maintenance just to clear the barnacle buildup.
Even with Hormuz officially open, uninterrupted flow is a myth. We are going to see massive supply chain disruptions and aggressive spikes in SPOT rates (forget paper markets) over the next 6–12 months.
I personally went all-in on US-levered oil companies - call it degenerate, but the macro environment screams uncertainty. Despite OPEC exits (Iraq/UAE) and headlines about a 2027 supply glut, getting things back to normal will take time.
Even if current traffic keeps the deficit manageable, there is a massive hole in worldwide Strategic Reserves that must be refilled. When that buying starts, it creates a permanent price floor of $70–$80 for the next 1–3 years. That’s a massive windfall for US oil companies, but brutal for consumers (as fuel inflation will get perma-cooked into the macro).
Given Marco Rubio and the broader neocon hostility, a full resolution in 2026 seems highly unlikely. Pressure will keep building.
My more cynical take: soft hostilities and fragmented traffic will continue under a prolonged ceasefire. Trump will play the waiting game until the US, China, and Russia are the only ones with enough oil to actually fuel the tankers. This "Mad Max" scenario is unironically a viable way for the US to inflate away its $39 trillion debt.
How? Funnel money into oil for short-term gains and lend it out on predatory terms. For example, the US already lends oil to other countries today with the stipulation that 1 barrel must be returned next year as 1.25 barrels. If oil spikes to $200, the US government and its banks gain immense leverage over global refineries and sovereign states. They can offload debt, ride out temporary shocks, and dump the ultimate burden on the next administration.
There is a lot happening beneath the surface.
Do you think the broader market is completely ignoring the drydocking/maintenance bottlenecks, or is the assumption just that China and India will absorb those supply chain delays without a panic?
To conclude: seems that this is the beginning rather than the end of this phase of 'oil shortages' - as we continue to eat into reserves at alarming rates, all in the hopes that 'tomorrow' the conflict resolves.
*Based on the 14-point plan, there is zero sense for the US concessions, so the odds of continued conflict are high, or am I missing the point here?
u/Aggravating_Brain_50 — 2 months ago
It is eerie fellas eerie I say
Tldr; DYOR; not an oil expert;
Yes i longed some levered oil companies. Regardless -
Israel stopping hostilities in Lebanon is a practical No, since both current government and opposition all want this land grab - a) to create a buffer and b) access to oil offshore South Lebanon
Since this is the status quo, and Gaza of course, how do you see all this going forward? Does Hezzbolah come to the table (as per Trump remarks) or does Iran seize support or given their stance, empathy to their fellow freedom fighter?
Given it seems this is the redder of the lines, do they allow this demolition of southern Lebanon to happen during the next 60 days? and does the next 60 days mean partial traffic (1-2 tankers per day)(given US admin is ambiguous in their language but is clear that warships remain for now) in which case, say we even de-mine in coming weeks, but remain partially closed say till September )(labor day lol), reopening still means months lost in normalization (bottlenecks into January 2027) and then for the next 2-3 years (27-29) panicky type of worldwide SPR refill depending on the status of Hormuz and GCC infrastructure.
All seems to come to one, that regardless, we will continue to see elevated oil and ironically live in this new inflation (2001,2008,2012,2016,2019,2022,2026 all keep stacking) no shit people cant afford to own homes no more. Gay and undeserved. Planned and cunning.
Share your take guys and gals!
u/Aggravating_Brain_50 — 2 months ago
▲ 111 r/oil
Convinced I understand the sinister plans of the orange man: conspiracy territory
Let’s cut to the chase:
US oil was decimated by the low prices on energy and so we’ve manufactured conflict after conflict, sanctions after sanctions, pandemics and even enabled wars all in the hope that oil stays above $50 where US oil companies (particularly shale) can actually make a profit
Many smaller US producers were/are overlevered (high debt) and therefore on the brink come 2025 when prices dropped sub $50
Now we have high energy guaranteed through 2027 no matter what, and a lot of supply substitution - and yes eventually when all comes back to normal we might see sub $40 oil as everyone rushes to offset this disruption by increasing export despite OPEC pleas, still…;
What are we left with? In 1 year from now, most oil companies in Us would have paid off their debts by tripling profits (and sure costs adjusted for inflation will rise but anything over $100 WTI is a gold rush)
Now, we see things like SOC who Trump is adamant to help, why? Then you have many like KOS who are in West Africa and Gulf of Mexico (Murica) and those companies stand to benefit the most
Long story short - blowing up just half of all infrastructure in GCC is beneficial to the US and its unsustainable $39 trillion debt in more ways than one:
A) oil company balance sheets clean
B) substituted ME oil with US products for years ahead
C) gov to gov manipulation (through debt facilities/defense)
D) worldwide instability and fear (no absolute center of finance)
E) ironically US becomes a safe haven for big money
F) all in the meanwhile AI indeed pushes SPY to new highs
G) this will create the most grand bubble by 2029
H) this is when crypto potentially kicks in hard even though the stable coin treasury system actually will offload debt onto the crypto bros
I) all in all indeed they are splitting the world into 3-4 centres of power where US maintains control over most energy in the world
J) oil might not drop to $40 even with oversupply since by then we will be knee deep into the ai builds which consume enormous amounts of energy
It is all sad - the age of enlightenment my ass. Any thoughts?
Before you rant fellas the title does say its conspiracy territory - let’s see how crazy it might get.
u/Aggravating_Brain_50 — 3 months ago
Hormuz: more than just an energy crisis - and why the biggest casualty isn't oil
The headlines are typically about the barrels per day. We’re all seeing the immediate fallout: $100+ Brent crude, European jet fuel imports under massive pressure, and a fertilizer shock currently hitting the spring planting season.
These are the obvious fires. But I stumbled across another perspective from a company I follow that completely changed my perspective on the "tail" of this crisis. It’s not just an energy story; it’s a semiconductor story after all.
While we watch the tankers, there is an "invisible" bottleneck in the Helium and Noble Gas supply that is being overlooked. Unlike oil, there is no pipeline for these gases. They move in specialized cryogenic containers on ships that aren't moving - and they have a literal expiration date.
The post makes a chilling point: inventory buffers for the big Asian fabs will hold for weeks, but they won't hold for quarters. If this extends, we aren't just talking about higher gas prices - we're talking about the physical inability to source hardware!
It's a perspective I haven't seen in the mainstream energy coverage yet:
I’m curious - to those in the energy sector - are you seeing the gas carriers being prioritized for the few "safe" slots in the current insurance scramble, or is everything equally stuck?
Does this mean your typical computer will cost an arm and a leg?
u/Aggravating_Brain_50 — 3 months ago
▲ 46 r/oil
I am looking to get the community's perspective on the pricing impacts of the current situation in the Middle East.
Even in an optimistic scenario where the Strait of Hormuz opens immediately, some industry analysts are pointing out a massive lag in the supply chain. The timeline I am seeing suggests:
- 2 to 6 weeks to restart shut-in production.
- 1 to 2 weeks to mobilize and ready the tanker vessels.
- 1 to 2 months for the crude to physically arrive at its destination.
- And this is not accounting for what was damage and needs repairs/rebuilding
During this massive lag, the global market continues to deplete the SPR and IEA reserves. Because of this physical deficit, some forecasts are pointing to a potential peak of around $150/bbl closer to August, when the supply gap becomes most acute.
Furthermore, the market doesn't seem to be fully pricing in the risk of further regional escalation. With recent news regarding UAE refinery infrastructure, what happens to the risk premium if the conflict broadens? Even if major production infrastructure remains intact, the uncertainty alone could keep prices elevated. (I have seen extreme tail-risk estimates floating around the $300/bbl mark if we have infrastructure destruction).
And yes, US and others are subsidizing, only a fraction, and yes, some Asian countries already have mandates in place for 4 day work week, or filling petrol on even days or otherwise, which in reality sounds terrifying, to us the spoilt North-West (always the most prosperous).
My questions for the community:
- Are these logistical timelines accurate based on your understanding of maritime shipping and production restarts?
- What are your predictions on oil price and where do you derive your information from?
Thanks guys.
u/Aggravating_Brain_50 — 4 months ago