u/Aggressive_Ad_5124

More credit → higher prices.
Less credit → lower prices.

Confirmation the cycle has rolled over in data form...

And things are just getting started:

- Westpac bad-debt charges: ×2 half-on-half
- NAB: forecasting a "challenging environment"
- APRA: new DTI limits from 1 Feb
- ASIC: 2026 priority = crackdown on mortgage brokers

Expect this chart to look worse over the next 6 months.

https://subject-to-finance.beehiiv.com/p/hike-like-a-butterfly

This week i covered why the current rate hiking cycle will impact property prices negatively.

More credit = higher prices.

Once credit growth slows (or worse, goes negative) property prices fall.

(which it looks like is about to happen)

ANZ, NAB and Westpac all had increasing credit impairment charges (bad loans being written off OR expected to be written off).

But the big one that no one is really thinking about:

APRA brought in macroprudential limits on high debt-to-income lending from 1 February 2026. APRA

ASIC’s 2026 enforcement priorities lead with mortgage broker conduct.

Three back-to-back hikes layered on top of macroprudential limits, layered on top of bank provisioning, layered on top of an ASIC crackdown on the broker channel that supplied roughly 70% of system credit growth in 2024–25.

Tough times ahead IMO

The number of Australian buyer’s agents has doubled in a decade.

Their share of property transactions has tripled in five years, from 4–5% in 2020 to 14–15% in 2025.

In my newsletter this week i write about whether or not they are running the property market equivalent of a “pump and dump”.

(or am i completely off the mark?)

I know there are some legit operators out there.