u/AgriBusinessIndia

Two major developments today that every serious agribusiness person should be tracking for Kharif 2026.

1. Monsoon arrival — May 26, Kerala

Southwest monsoon is expected to hit Kerala on May 26. That's broadly on schedule, possibly slightly early. Good signal for June sowing. The concern remains the second half of the season — IMD forecast is 92% of LPA overall, with the real shortfall expected in August-September when El Niño effects are most visible. June-July looks relatively stable at around 101% of LPA according to Skymet.

Regional risk zones: Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana expected below normal. Central and western India — which includes Maharashtra's rainfed belts — also at risk. Eastern India expected to perform better.

2. Fertiliser supply chain stress

This is the bigger worry right now. The West Asia conflict has disrupted fertiliser imports through the Strait of Hormuz. India imports nearly half its urea and DAP from Middle Eastern suppliers.

The numbers:

1. Global urea futures: crossed $700/tonne, highest since October 2022
2. India's domestic fertiliser production fell 24.6% in March 2026 year-on-year
3. DAP import cost: around $930-935/tonne CFR — global prices up ~40%
4. Government response: raised Kharif NBS subsidy to ₹41,533 crore (11% hike), holding retail prices flat — urea at ₹266.50/bag, DAP at ₹1,350/bag

The cushion: Buffer stock is at 190 lakh MT against a seasonal requirement of 390 lakh MT — roughly 49% coverage. Government claims usual opening stock is 33%, so this is better than normal.

The risk: If the conflict extends through June-July peak sowing, physical availability — not just price — becomes the problem. Government has diversified import sources to reduce Strait of Hormuz dependency.

ICRA's summary is apt: a combination of below-normal rainfall, El Niño, and fertiliser supply disruption could significantly pressure agricultural output, food inflation, and rural demand in FY27.

What are input dealers in your region saying about stock availability ahead of sowing?

(Note: Used AI only for concise formatting.)

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Just came across this, GRAM 2026 is happening in Jaipur from May 23 to 25. A roadshow was held in Delhi recently and apparently delegates from 19 countries are already confirmed. The focus is on agritech innovation, investment, and global partnerships in agriculture.

These kinds of events are genuinely useful if you're:

1. An agri startup looking for investors or partners
2. Working on agri export or value chain projects
3. Just trying to understand where the money is flowing in Indian agriculture

I think most of us underestimate how much of the agribusiness opportunity in India is still unlocked, events like GRAM bring together the people who are actually moving capital in this space. Anyone from this community planning to go? Would be good to know if there are people from r/AgriBusinessIndia attending.

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I have been exploring the economics of setting up a small dal mill, and here’s a realistic snapshot:

Setup cost:

1. Small unit (3–5 MT/day): ₹40+ lakh
2. Govt subsidy (PMFME / state schemes): up to ₹10–25 lakh
3. Net investment: Approx. ₹15–55 lakh (post-subsidy)
4. What it does: Processing pulses like tur, urad, masoor, chana and cleaning, dehusking, splitting, and packaging.

Ground reality on margins:

1. Raw material cost + processing + yield loss matters a lot
2. Yield is ~65–75% (not 100%)
3. Typical profit margin: Approx. ₹5–10/kg (can vary with market)

At 5 MT/day (raw input):

1. Output ~3.5 MT dal
2. Approx daily profit: ₹15,000 – ₹35,000 (after considering yield & realistic margins)

Key challenges:

1. Price fluctuations in pulses
2. High working capital requirement
3. Competition from established brands
4. Credit cycles in wholesale market

Where the real upside is:

1. Branding + retail packaging
2. Direct sourcing from farmers
3. Selling by-products (chuni, husk)
4. Local distribution networks

There are definitely many successful dal mills in Maharashtra, MP, UP but, it’s not as simple as “buy cheap, sell high.”

I’m curious, is anyone here running a dal mill already? or planning to start one? or part of an FPO exploring processing?

Would love to learn from real experiences and connect.

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Saturday post. Let's make this useful for everyone.

We have farmers, agri entrepreneurs, students, and professionals in this community. A lot of you are probably sitting on ideas that you have not acted on yet.

Drop it in the comments:

• What's the agri business idea you have been thinking about?
• What's stopping you from starting?
• What kind of help would actually move you forward?

Could be anything for example a processing unit, an export venture, a tech solution for farmers, a direct-to-consumer model, agri consulting, anything in the agribusiness space.

Let's make this thread useful. Go.

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