Before the City Commits: A Simple Market Loan Feasibility Check
I made a simple spreadsheet tracker to better understand the proposed new market loan and whether the project can realistically pay for itself.
This is not an official feasibility study and not an accusation against anyone. The sheet uses sample assumptions for now because they have not released the full official figures publicly.
The main question is simple:
- Can the new market generate enough revenue to cover its yearly loan payments and operating costs, or will the city need to cover the gap using other public funds?
- Based on the sample assumptions, the project does not appear to fully pay for itself unless the official revenue projections are much stronger, the loan terms are more favorable, or another repayment source has already been identified.
Main risks worth asking about:
- Revenue may not be enough to cover the loan.
- The city may need to subsidize the yearly shortfall.
- Stall rent may need to increase, which could affect small vendors.
- Occupancy may be lower than projected if rent is too high or foot traffic is weak.
- Operating and maintenance costs may be underestimated.
- Loan payments could limit funds for other city needs.
- Cost overruns or construction delays could make the project more expensive.
For a loan this large, I think the public deserves to see the full feasibility study, repayment schedule, revenue projections, operating cost estimates, and the fallback plan if the market does not earn enough.
A public market can be necessary and still be financially risky. The point is not to oppose it automatically; the point is to see the math clearly before the city commits public funds.