▲ 3 r/IRS+1 crossposts

Never married, but: 971 injured spouse claim received

I've never been married, but looking at my transcript "971 injured spouse claim received" show up. It is also logged at a date well before I filed. What does this mean?

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u/AlternativeSignal908 — 7 hours ago

Fidelity Baskets are unsafe to use

We all know about the error messages and occasional interface issues. However, I am now seeing erroneous rebalancing trades from yesterday. In two separate accounts, I now have significant tradable cash as a result of failed rebalancings. These accounts are always full invested. Yesterdays rebalancings were traditional rebalancings. There should be <$1 cash, not five figure amounts.

Fidelity Baskets is product we pay for. It's a product who's work I never felt comfortable using without checking. And now it has made consequential errors.

Hey Fidelity, how about instead of blowing us off, you allocate an engineer or two and fix it. Based on the copyright on the website it hasn't been touched since 2023. It is a product that was never ready for launch and it is ruining your reputation.

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u/AlternativeSignal908 — 2 months ago
▲ 10 r/LETFs

The Right Way to Use a Backtest

https://open.substack.com/pub/riskparitychronicles/p/the-right-way-to-use-a-backtest

Great introductory framework for those of us doing UPRO/ZROZ/GLD and various related portfolios. I especially look at portfolio behavior through the eras Justin describes, rather than just looking at today's max CAGR result. For those of us with decades ahead, we're going to see most of this again. Studying these events and how your portfolio does in each is key to sticking with it and earning the superior returns.

  • The inflationary 1970s
  • The interest-rate spike of the early 1980s
  • The 1987 crash
  • The dot-com bubble
  • The Global Financial Crisis
  • The COVID crash
  • The strange environment of 2022
u/AlternativeSignal908 — 2 months ago
▲ 1 r/ETFs

Someone please create a Global Serial Acquirors ETF

Constellation, Berkshire, Lifco, Indutrade, Investor AB, TerraVest, Chapters Group, etc.

Please take my money.

That is all. Thanks.

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u/AlternativeSignal908 — 3 months ago

Hypothetical: What's your safety portfolio if the "AI bubble" pops?

Where do you want to be positioned for good long-term stability and returns if the AI narrative unwinds quicky?

This is a hypothetical, I don't want to go down rabbit holes debating whether we're in a bubble. And some non-tech sectors will compress (some industrials and power related companies, as an example), so it isn't quite as easy as just avoiding tech.

I'd argue developed international (VEA) would be fine (semis are at the top of the holdings, but Samsung, ASML and SK are ~7%). Large cap value (VTV, BRK-B, etc.). Small cap value. Midcaps. Any other ETF that slices and dices the market in an interesting way to be anti-AI?

Obviously, a real bubble pop will impact the markets generally, but what do you think would be resilient if a 2001 style event happened again?

Any anti tech / AI bets? Anything that's not just uncorrelated, but negatively correlated? Treasuries didn't really spike in 2001. Tech is enough of the economy that rates probably would be cut if AI crashes? Anything else? Short copper? haha

Note: I'm not really anti tech or AI. I do think this is a useful exercise for building a robust portfolio, and that's the goal for this conversation. Identify the gaps for someone who might be largely US market cap based.

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u/AlternativeSignal908 — 3 months ago
▲ 4 r/LETFs

Question for all of you SMA, technical analysis, and market timing traders:

SMA, technical analysis, and market timing have all been pretty thoroughly debunked (EMH weak-form) by the academics for unlevered equity markets. What makes you think it works long term for levered equity products?

Yeah, momentum is a market factor, but it's a pretty weak one.

There's some academic support (AQR, etc.) for trend in commodity futures, but that's tied to premium paid by real commodity users for "insurance" (certainty of price over time).

Honestly want to know what the foundation is for SMA, etc. or whether this is just a return to technical analysis like it's 1990 all over again.

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u/AlternativeSignal908 — 3 months ago