u/Ancient_Bobcat_9150

We all (should) value the importance of MOAT from a company - to allow a company resilience, longevity, competitive advantage and so on. I don't remember who wrote, but it is also important that a company does not have exclusively one MOAT, but several.

Do you have a favourite type of MOAT?
Here are the most common ones often mentioned:

Size and scale, Cost Advantage or Technical edge (production advantages)
Brand strength, Switching cost or Network Effect (consumer advantages)
Intangible asset which is mainly related to laws and regulatory barriers?

Personally, I try to favour Switching Costs and Network effect from mission-critical companies like Visa, Microsoft, S&P Global or ASML that all fit both MOATs

For all those who mix indexing and stock picking, I would have liked to know how you decide(d) the weighting of each.

Because I am still relatively new to stock picking, I allocate max 10% of my portfolio to singles stocks. It is not much, and won't move that much the needle. But the goal was to work on skills and see if I get used to the exercices and results show.
If I feel positive, I could see getting the 20-25% stock picking (EDIT to clarify -- those percentages are for my total stock picks, not just one stock). The rest goes into World ETF + Small cap value ETF.
Edit #2 - maybe less important - it is evident that because the amounts we talk about are not huge, I do not intend to spread and invest in 7444 stocks. More like in the 8-12 range, tops.

But at what point have you enough insight ? Especially value investor - compared to momentum investor - need quite a bit of time to see their value picks turnaround.

For instance, I have invested in some turnaround companies that still are volatile: Topicus, Nu Holding, Mips AB -- my best pick -- and Wolters Kluwer. Today, goal is not to reinforce them too fast and find good entry point in higher quality/anchor companies like Hermes, Google, Heico, SPGI or Intuitive Surgical. YTD, i underperform the SP500. I am really not worried about that.

Anyway, curious to hear how and why you decide a particular allocation stock picks vs Index

Bonsoir,

Avec mon épouse, on vient visiter votre belle ville fin mai pour quelques jours.
On a clairement l'intention de parcourir quelques bouchons (notamment recommandés ici).
J'aimerais inviter ma femme dans un beau resto, confortable et romantique (et de qualité, mais ça à Lyon ça semble de toute manière un prérequis).

En recherchant un peu, je suis tombé sur Le Tiroir, et Agastache.
Vous avez un avis sur l'un d'eux ? D'autres suggestions dans ce style?

Nous sommes particulièrement sensibles au service et au cadre.

Merci d'avance et bonne fin de weekend,

Hi all,

I thought their last earnings were quite good and yet, the market ain't convinced.
I analysed the earnings and stock using "Where the Money is" framework (a book that helps analyse modern companies, especially tech).

In short, the book's framework argues that traditional value investing (looking at book value or simple P/E ratios) isn't the best. He proposes to focus on:

Toll Bridge" Business: Identifying companies with such high switching costs that they become essential infrastructure for their customers.

Earnings Power vs. Reported Profit: Ignores "ugly" accounting (GAAP) that penalises companies for spending on R&D and growth, and instead looks at the raw cash a business could generate if it stopped reinvesting.

And uses a Checklist: Yes/No filter for Business quality, Management mindset, and Price (requiring a 5%+ earnings yield).

Topicus is quite known, but still interesting to describe:

Topicus is basically the European Constellation Software, a "serial acquirer" of niche software businesses.

So, after Q1 earnings (checklist) -->

Business: Ok. Recurring maintenance revenue—the highest quality "toll"—grew by 23.2% this quarter. Furthermore, Topicus holds a stake in Asseco Poland worth €758M, which is €256M higher than what is listed on the balance sheet. This "hidden asset" provides a good margin of safety.

Management: Ok. Good "owner mindset" by using Q1 cash to pay down €249M in debt. They also showed agility by committing an additional €37.7M to new acquisitions immediately after the quarter ended, taking advantage of market weakness. And they have planned quite a bit of buybacks since the beginning of March.

Price : Ok. At $94 CAD, the stock trades at roughly 14.5x Earnings Power. This results in a 6.7% yield; Seessel’s has a 5% minimum requirement.

Why the market did not get excited is probably due to the net income decrease. But this drop was purely an accounting distortion (the lack of a one-time gain from the year prior). Q1 2025 was inflated by one-time non-cash gains. Today, recurring revenue grew 23%, and Topicus generated €280M in cash, paying off €249M in debt.

Bear Case

Asseco Value Volatility: Because a significant portion of the "hidden value" is tied to Asseco's stock price in Poland, a crash in Eastern European markets could wipe out the cushion that currently protects Topicus shareholders, leading to further negative sentiment.

Professional Services Headwinds: Topicus still derives a portion of its revenue from professional services (implementation). In an environment of high wage inflation in Europe, these margins could be squeezed if they cannot automate these services faster than labor costs rise.

But I do feel the base case and bull case are much more likely than bear case.

Today, I don't see companies I like that are in deep-value territory.
But in the last few months, and with earnings seasons passing by, I have several renowned compounders that I follow and feel I may be able to open a position soon. These are rarely cheap and will not have the explosive growth some may look for. But - at the right price - they are a long-term investors dream.

Here are some companies I hope will finally be more accessible (technically, many of them already are accessible - the longer the horizon, the less important it is to find the perfect entry point):

>Copart : I need more reassurance of domestic (US) growth
>Canadian Pacific Kansas City : Very disciplined and effective business considering the headwinds.
>Assa Abloy AB : They are delivering quarter after quarter. Very close to my price target of 325-330Kr (today 350kr)
>SAP SE : I am not in love with that company or sector in general - But it is a major player in EU business operations, and price is getting really attractive. This one actually is close to value territory, and one would have all the reasons to open a position today.

I also follow Linde Plc and Schneider Electric closely, but they are today too far from a good entry point - quite expensive.

Obviously also keeping an eye open on your usual suspects from the MAG7 (Microsoft and co) but i figured there is not need to mention as every second post here mentions them :)