I started a public research log on KBO betting market efficiency — Day 1
Background: I've followed football for 20+ years and kept failing to predict it. Realized the problem was too many uncontrollable variables, so I shifted to baseball — specifically KBO, which is less analyzed than MLB.
I'm not a quant or data scientist. Design background, lots of curiosity.
What I'm building: a research-grade database of KBO odds, stripping bookmaker margin to get fair implied probabilities, then measuring how well the market actually predicts outcomes.
The goal isn't to sell picks. It's to answer one honest question: how efficient is the KBO betting market, really?
Day 1 post covers the why. Numbers (Brier scores, calibration, the works) come in subsequent entries as I build them out.
Full post here if interested: https://driftoraquant.substack.com/p/why-were-building-driftora
Happy to discuss methodology, data approach, or anything else.