u/Artesh26

$CIEN (CIENA CORP) is down about 35% from its recent high. Here's what made me look closer: the insider selling around it was entirely automated 10b5-1 plans / routine schedules (most recent Jul 1) — no insider made a discretionary, informed decision to sell.

The idea (from the research): markets sometimes overreact to a scary insider-selling headline that was really just scheduled compensation, creating a temporary discount.

So — genuine overreaction and a dip worth a look, or is the market right to be cautious on $CIEN? What am I missing?

Disclosure: I built the SEC-filing scanner that surfaced this. Educational, not advice.

Here's what caught my eye:

>$YPF (YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA) — an officer put $200K of their own money into the stock on the open market on Jul 2. What caught our eye: this is someone who almost never trades — when a rare buyer finally acts, it tends to mean more.

For context on how I filter these: I only keep open-market buys made with the insider's own cash — routine trades and automated 10b5-1 plans stripped out (the slice academic research found actually carries signal).

Not advice — an insider buying just means one person committed their own money. But it made me look twice. Bullish, or am I reading too much into it? What do you all see on $YPF?

Disclosure: I built the SEC-filing scanner that surfaced this (savng.com — my project). Educational, not advice.

$IPX (IPERIONX Ltd) — an officer put $1.1M of their own money into the stock on the open market on Jul 13. What caught our eye: though the stock had already dropped hard, so it may be support-buying rather than a fresh conviction call — worth weighing.

**Also on today's list:**

* $CMC (COMMERCIAL METALS Co) — the CEO put $504K of their own money into the stock on the open market on Jul 10. And here's the odd part — they're paying up, around 2.5× our estimate of fair value; insiders usually buy cheap, so a rich buy stands out.

Market backdrop today: near-term risk Elevated (41/100), long-term High (61/100).

How we pick these: we read every SEC Form 4, throw out routine trades and automated 10b5-1 sales, and keep only irregular, open-market buys made with the insider's own cash — the slice academic research (Cohen–Malloy–Pomorski, *Journal of Finance*) found actually carries signal. Then we rank them against our own DCF value.

*Educational, not advice. An insider buying tells you one person committed their own money — not that the stock will rise. Every trade needs a planned entry and exit. Verify the filings yourself.*

Full feed, value filters & the live backtest: [https://savng.com/insider-signals/\](https://savng.com/insider-signals/)

Here's what caught my eye:

>$NXST (NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP, INC.) — the CEO just put $2.0M of their own money into the stock on the open market. What caught our eye: this is someone who almost never trades — when a rare buyer finally acts, it tends to mean more; and they're buying it below what our model thinks the business is worth (about 0.29× our DCF value).

For context on how I filter these: I only keep open-market buys made with the insider's own cash — routine trades and automated 10b5-1 plans stripped out (the slice academic research found actually carries signal).

Not advice — an insider buying just means one person committed their own money. But it made me look twice. Bullish, or am I reading too much into it? What do you all see on $NXST?

This week's opportunistic insider buys, ranked by conviction — open-market, own cash, with routine trades and 10b5-1 plans stripped out (the Cohen–Malloy–Pomorski method):

1. $CMC — President and CEO bought $504K on the open market — stake +4.7%, held directly (personal capital), 2.47× our DCF value, debt 0.7× equity. (conviction 32/100)
2. $IPX — Executive Chairman bought $1.1M on the open market — stake +2.0%, held directly (personal capital). (conviction 35/100)

Track record so far: 737 matured opportunistic buys, avg 7.2% over 63 days (0.3% vs S&P), 62% positive, t-stat 2.69. Small sample — past performance ≠ future results.

Educational, not advice. A signal is a starting point — every trade needs a planned entry and exit.

High-conviction insider buys — CMP-filtered (opportunistic: open-market, own cash, not routine, not 10b5-1):

• $IPX — $1.1M open-market ·
• $IPX — $805K open-market ·
• $CMC — $504K open-market · 2.47× DCF value · D/E 0.7
• $IPX — $497K open-market ·

Market risk today: Right now Elevated 42/100 · The tide High 61/100.

Method: SEC Form 4 + our own DCF valuation. Research (Cohen–Malloy–Pomorski, Journal of Finance) shows opportunistic buys carry signal; routine ones don't.

Educational, not advice. A signal is a starting point — every trade needs a planned entry and exit. Verify filings yourself.