u/Be_The_Ball24

Preseason Playing Time Rant

I feel the league has swayed so much in the wrong direction when it comes to training camp and preseason. The CBA changes have made it more challenging than ever to get guys truly ramped up for regular season football.

For the Panthers, they are not an established team right now. They've started out each of the last two seasons under Canales slow and are the perfect example of a team that should use preseason to its advantage to ramp up.

We used to see starters in the 3rd game of the season often play into the 3rd quarter, but a full half of football was a given. It was treated as a dress rehearsal game. With cutting back to 3 games, I really see the value in treating the 2nd game of preseason in this same way. Joint practices are treated with more attention/effort than the preseason games now, and I think it's a mistake.

These are controlled environments which games aren't. I don't care if the Panthers starters are up against backups if they stayed in longer. There is value in going through a live operation in preseason versus simulating it in a joint practice or your own practice.

There's no value in 10-15 snaps when your body has to be ready to go for 50-60 in a few weeks. I really want to see Canales pivot against the league on this one and play most of the starters a full half on Friday.

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u/Be_The_Ball24 — 12 hours ago

Xavier Legette Predictions?

It's the dog days of summer and the annual training camp hype season for XL has arrived. Most have given up on him, but let's get formal predictions down for expectations for the season.

Here's a look at his first two seasons. Among the 54 receivers with 150+ targets since 2024:

  • 54th of 54 in PFF receiving grade (55.9)
  • 54th of 54 in YAC per reception (2.2)
  • Tied 53rd in first downs gained (45)
  • Bottom 25th percentile in YPRR (1.03) and drop rate (8.7%)

No surprise here, Legette's metrics match the eye test of being one of the worst receivers in the NFL since he came into the league. Is all hope lost or can he have a 3rd-year breakout?

Quentin Johnston is another rookie WR who had a horrific rookie season, a better but still underwhelming sophomore year and then saw a breakout in year 3 that ended up being hampered by injuries. He now looks like an NFL WR who can start and contribute on a winning team.

Outside of being first round picks with disappointing starts, the comparison stops between the two. QJ had a much better sophomore season and largely was held back by drops. With XL, there's little evidence on tape to support a 3rd-year breakout, and it would come from simply figuring out the NFL.

Ultimately, I can't fault XL for being drafted where he was. It's clear he was thrust into a role he wasn't ready for. The Panthers thought the physical traits would outweigh the mental side of learning an NFL playbook and understanding the nuances of an NFL defense. The hope is that with less pressure on him and another year in this system he can play free and we'll start to see his physical traits pop on the field.

My official prediction is we see signs of the reasons the Panthers drafted him, but it'll come in a reduced role. The coaching staff no longer will be trying to fit a square peg in a round hole and finds opportunities to take advantage of his strengths. Finishes around 600 yards receiving with 5-6 touchdowns.

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u/Be_The_Ball24 — 23 days ago

How do we feel about the offense?

The Panthers simply have to be a better offensive team than they've been the past two years. They need to be more diverse, can't rely on the run game as much and be able to move the ball consistently through the passing game.

They are largely banking on growth from Bryce, the young WRs, Brooks returning to the RB room and 3 new starters on the OL to gel. We saw flashes of what this offense could be at times a year ago, but on the whole, it was still an underwhelming unit.

I feel great about the defense and its ability to take a step forward. It's harder to hold that same confidence in the offense going into camp.

Getting to a league average offense with the expected leap from the defense would have the Panthers in the playoffs.

How does everyone feel about the offensive side of the ball going into camp?

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u/Be_The_Ball24 — 28 days ago

The Hornets aren't rebuilding or shifting strategies

I keep seeing fans and non-fans referring to the Hornets as rebuilding or tanking, which is absurd. The new ownership group came in with the new CBA and settled on a strategy at that time, which has been bolstered by the lottery reform change.

The current CBA has only had full apron restrictions established for two seasons. The change to the lottery starts this upcoming season. Both of these are going to massively change the landscape of roster building strategy and player values, but because it's so new we haven't seen the full ramifications felt yet.

Here are things I'm confident in:

  • 1st round picks value has increased.
  • Star players will be moved earlier in their contracts to maximize return.
  • Those that aren't moved ala Giannis will see a bigger dip on a return than in the past.
  • Cap flexibility is a greater asset than ever.
  • Having a deep roster with a plethora of shooting and versatile interchangeable parts is the direction the league is going.

Let's analyze this against what the Hornets have:

  • 11 1st round picks from 2027-2033.
  • No bad contracts on the books long-term.
  • Fantastic cap flexibility and avenues to add core piece(s) now or continue to collect assets from teams that are in a bind ala the Miles trade.
  • Ton of shooting, interchangeable parts that will allow them to be versatile and depth to handle a long season.

I get the emotion around trading LaMelo, a super popular player who was incredibly fun to watch and wanted to be here. But the question marks are real with him on his health as well as knowing if he is a true championship pillar of a team.

We will see if the Hornets choose to cash in on some of those assets this offseason or decide to continue to accumulate for the future, but as is this roster is still set to compete for a playoff spot next year. Yes, they lost the talent of LaMelo but they are deeper and have added playoff tested vets to a young core.

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u/Be_The_Ball24 — 2 months ago