u/Ben_Holda

Looking to keep it under $75 but okay with long term splurges. Looking for elves and self-mill. As well as some budget landfall and spot removal. I wanna be able to either play commander early and aggro, or wait and bulk up a graveyard to use him as a finisher.

The Chicago Fire has declared August 15th as Andrew Gutman day. Get the bald caps ready!

The 2026 Concacaf Champions Cup final has been set. With two Mexican sides set to face off for the title, here in the United States, maybe it's a good idea to focus on the 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification.

Some notes on conventions:

• I use trigrams for clubs on first reference, even when we all know who we're talking about.
• I'm assuming the rules for qualification in 2027 will be the same as in 2026 unless otherwise specified. (The 2027 regulations aren't out yet.)
• If you see the term "named berth", this means any berth that is not simply given to the next best club in the standings that isn't already qualified.
• I refer to weekends by their Saturday and midweeks by their Wednesday, unless a specific singular date has been declared.
• Clubs in italics have qualified for their regional cup; bold have qualified for 2027 Champions Cup; bold and italics indicates a bye directly to the Round of 16.

#WHAT'S NEW

• LigaMX has finished for another season!
• We have projected seeding for the Central American Cup and the Caribbean Cup!

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#COMPETITIONS THAT HAVE CONCLUDED

##LigaMX

###Qualification Rules

• Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through LigaMX.
• Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura champions qualify; of these two clubs, the one with the most points between the two tournaments qualifies directly to the Round of 16. The other qualifies for the First Round.
  • Note that if either champion wins Leagues Cup, then both champions qualify for the Round of 16.
• Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura runners-up qualify for the First Round.
• In addition, the two clubs with the most points between the two tournaments, not already qualified, will qualify for the First Round.
  • If any club qualifies through two or more named berths, then an additional club will qualify through points for each excess named berth so held.

###Results

• Toluca [MEX] defeated Tigres [MEX] in the 2025 Apertura final on penalties.
• Cruz Azul [MEX] defeated Pumas [MEX] in the 2026 Clausura final, 2-1.
  • Cruz Azul was tops in the aggregate table (Toluca was second), so they get the bye to the Round of 16.
• The next highest ranked clubs are Chivas [MEX], who were third in the aggregate table, and América [MEX], who were fifth.
• For Leagues Cup purposes, the next three clubs in the standings (who could inherit a berth through Leagues Cup) are, in order:
  • Pachuca [MEX]
  • Monterrey [MEX]
  • Tijuana [MEX]

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#COMPETITIONS IN PROGRESS

##Major League Soccer

###Qualification Rules

• Five clubs qualify for Champions Cup through MLS.
• The 2026 MLS Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • Note that if the MLS Cup champion also wins Leagues Cup, the MLS Cup runner-up qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
• Both regular season conference champions qualify for the First Round.
• In addition, the two clubs with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
  • If a club qualifies for Champions Cup through two or more named berths (other than Open Cup champion or Canadian Championship winner), then an additional club with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
• Note that these berths are not country-locked; this is a relatively new policy starting with qualification for the 2025 tournament.

###Analysis

• Leading the Supporters Shield table is Nashville SC [USA]; Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] lead the Western Conference.
• The next two best are San Jose Earthquakes [USA] and Inter Miami [USA]
• If one of these were to win MLS Cup, then the last berth would currently fall to Chicago Fire [USA] on goal difference.
• The regular season ends on November 7.

##Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup

###Qualification Rules

• One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Open Cup.
• This berth goes to the club that wins the Open Cup.
  • Should the Open Cup champion already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Open Cup runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
  • If both the Open Cup champion and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth reverts to the club with the most points in the 2026 MLS season, not already qualified. (The regulations do not say that this berth is country-locked but honestly it should be.)

###Analysis

• The semifinals are set!
  • Columbus Crew [USA] v Orlando City SC [USA]
  • Colorado Rapids [USA] v St. Louis City SC [USA]
• The semifinals are set for the midweek of September 16; the final is set for October 21.

##Canadian Premier League

###Qualification Rules

• Two clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the CPL.
• The 2026 North Star Cup winner qualifies for the First Round.
• The 2026 CPL shield winner qualifies for the First Round.
• Should a club win both named berths, the second-place club in the table will take a berth instead.

###Analysis

• Cavalry FC [CAN] currently leads the table with 17 points from 7 matches; they lead Forge FC [CAN] by 1 point and Inter Toronto [CAN] by 5 points.
• The regular season ends on October 25.
• Note that unlike MLS, the Canadian Premier League will be playing through the World Cup.

##Canadian Championship

###Qualification Rules

• One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Canadian Championship.
• This berth goes to the club that wins the Canadian Championship.
  • Should the Canadian Championship winner already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Canadian Championship runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
  • If both the Canadian Championship winner and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth goes to the Canadian Championship semifinalist with the better performance in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, not already qualified.

###Analysis

• The quarterfinals are set! (The top four clubs were seeded; their rankings are listed; the first club listed will play the second leg of the quarterfinals at home.)
  • Cavalry FC [CAN] v (1) Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN]
    • The order of these matches were switched due to scheduling concerns.
  • (4) CF Montréal [CAN] v Vancouver FC [CAN]
  • (2) Forge FC [CAN] v CS Saint-Laurent [CAN]
  • Atlético Ottawa [CAN] v Supra du Québec [CAN]
• The quarterfinals are set for July 8 and July 12-13, the semifinals for September, and the final for October 21.

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#COMPETITIONS YET TO START

##Leagues Cup

###Qualification Rules

• Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Leagues Cup.
• The 2026 Leagues Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
• The runner-up and third place club qualifies for the First Round.

###Analysis

• The 36 clubs have been determined!
  • All 18 LigaMX clubs will take part.
  • The 18 clubs that made the 2025 MLS Cup playoffs will take part.
• The Leagues Cup will start on the midweek of August 5, with the final scheduled on September 6.

##Central American Cup

###Qualification Rules

• Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Central American Cup.
• The champion of Central American Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
• The three remaining semifinalists all qualify for the First Round.
• In addition, two play-in winners (amongst losing quarterfinalists) qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

• The 20 clubs qualifying for Central American Cup are expected to be in the following distribution:
  • Costa Rica (4): Alajuelense [CRC] (2025 Apertura champion), Herediano [CRC] (2026 Clausura champion), Saprissa [CRC], and Cartaginés [CRC]
  • Guatemala (4): Antigua GFC [GUA] (2025 Apertura champion), Municipal [GUA] (2026 Clausura champion and 2025 Apertura runner-up), Xelajú [GUA] (2026 Clausura runner-up), and Mixco [GUA]
  • El Salvador (3): LA Firpo [SLV] (2025 Apertura champion), CD FAS [SLV] (2026 Clausura champion), and Alianza [SLV]
  • Honduras (3): Olimpia [HON] (2025 Apertura champion), Motagua [HON] (2026 Clausura champion), and Marathón [HON]
  • Panama (3): Plaza Amador [PAN] (2025 Clausura champion and 2026 Clausura champion), Alianza [PAN], and UMECIT [PAN]
  • Nicaragua (2): Diriangén [NCA] (2025 Apertura champion) and Real Estelí [NCA] (2026 Clausura champion)
  • Belize (1): Verdes [BLZ] (2025 Opening champion and 2026 Closing champion)
• Costa Rica and Guatemala get one extra berth from their statutory 3 because clubs from those two nations made it to the 2025 Central American Cup final.
  • Note that Guatemala apparently assigned their berths to be the league champions and runners-up from both seasons, with any duplicated berths going to the aggregate table.
• The expected seeding is as follows. Note that by rule, no group can contain more than two clubs from a given country.
  • Pot 1: Alajuelense [CRC], Herediano [CRC], Olimpia [HON], Municipal [GUA]
  • Pot 2: Saprissa [CRC], Plaza Amador [PAN], Antigua GFC [GUA], Motagua [HON]
  • Pot 3: Xelajú [GUA], Cartaginés [CRC], Marathón [HON], Mixco [GUA]
  • Pot 4: Alianza [PAN], LA Firpo [SLV], Real Estelí [NCA], CD FAS [SLV]
  • Pot 5: Diriangén [NCA], Alianza [SLV], UMECIT [PAN], Verdes [BLZ]

##Caribbean Cup

###Qualification Rules

• Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Caribbean Cup.
• The champion of Caribbean Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
• The runner-up and third place club qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

• The 10 clubs qualifying for Caribbean Cup are expected to be:
  • Cibao FC [DOM] (Dominican Republic champion - 2025 "sprint season")
  • Salcedo [DOM] (Dominican Republic champion - 2025-26 season)
  • Portmore [JAM] (Jamaica champion)
  • Cavalier [JAM] (Jamaica runner-up)
  • Defence Force [TRI] (Trinidad and Tobago champion)
  • Sando FC [TRI] (Trinidad and Tobago runner-up)
  • Violette [HAI] (Haiti 2025 Opening and 2026 Closing champion)
  • Broki [SUR] (Suriname champion)
  • The champion and runner-up of the CFU Club Shield
    • The Club Shield is expected to see champions of other nations in the Caribbean, as well as the next best clubs from the fully professional nations (the ones who get automatic berths into the Caribbean Cup.) Assuming the standings are true, that should be:
      • Delfines del Este [DOM] (the better semifinalist in the 2025-26 season)
      • Baltimore [HAI] (the runner-up in both the 2025 Opening and 2026 Closing season)
      • Mount Pleasant [JAM] (the third-place winner)
      • Robinhood [SUR] (the runner-up)
      • Prison Service [TRI] (the third-place finisher)
    • I know that /u/RWREmpireBuilder might be able to shed some light on projected champions of the smaller Caribbean nations that might also appear in CFU Club Shield; I would expect the draw to be in the next couple weeks (last year's draw was early June.)
• The seeding is expected to be as follows.
  • Pot 1: Violette [HAI], Cibao [DOM]
  • Pot 2: Defence Force [TRI], Cavalier [JAM]
  • Pot 3: Portmore [JAM], Sando FC [TRI]
  • Pot 4: Salcedo [DOM], Broki [SUR]
  • Pot 5: The champion and runner-up of the CFU Club Shield

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#THE DRAW AS IT STANDS NOW

###The Expected Format

It's expected that the draw will be the same format as 2026.

• The better LigaMX champion, the MLS champion, the Leagues Cup winner, the Central American Cup champion, and the Caribbean Cup champion will be placed into the bracket in ranking order.
• The top three First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will, likewise, be placed into the bracket.
• The next eight First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will be seeded and randomly drawn into the bracket.
• The remaining eleven First Round clubs will be unseeded.

###Lazy Projections

I'm going to project the field by making simple assumptions:

• In any knockout bracket that is explicitly seeded, the higher-seeded club wins every match. That would be the Canadian Championship, and Leagues Cup, Central American Cup, and Caribbean Cup (after the knockout rounds start).
• In MLS and CPL, the club currently leading the table wins the playoffs and berths still go in standings order.
• In Open Cup, Leagues Cup, the Central American Cup, and the Caribbean Cup, we'll go with highest in the Concacaf Club Rankings for now.

This leads to the following projections:

• Tigres beats Toluca in the Leagues Cup final, with Cruz Azul taking third. (This would qualify Pachuca, Monterrey, and Tijuana.)
• Nashville takes MLS Cup, with Vancouver, San Jose, Inter Miami, and Chicago qualifying through MLS.
• Columbus takes the Open Cup.
• Cavalry takes CPL with Forge qualifying.
• With the top 2 clubs seeded in the Canadian Championship qualifying by other means, the berth goes to fourth-seeded CF Montréal.
• The Central American qualifiers are Alajuelense (first round bye), Herediano, Olimpia, Municipal, Saprissa, and Plaza Amador.
• The Caribbean qualifiers are Violette (first round bye), Cibao, and Defence Force.

The seeding would then look as follows:

• First round byes: Tigres (1), Cruz Azul (3), Nashville (6), Alajuelense (39), Violette (66)
• Placed into the bracket: Toluca (2), Inter Miami (4), América (8)
• Seeded: Vancouver Whitecaps (9), Chivas (10), Pachuca (11), Columbus (12), Pumas (13), Monterrey (15), Tijuana (20), Chicago (23)
• Unseeded: San Jose (29), Herediano (42), Olimpia (43), Municipal (45), Saprissa (46), CF Montréal (50), Forge (52), Plaza Amador (55), Cavalry (56), Cibao (83), Defence Force (93)

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Our next expected update will be on Monday, July 20. By that point, the Canadian Championship semifinals will be set, and we should have groups for the CFU Club Shield.

If you have any questions, please, don't hesitate to ask me here, and I will attempt to answer them to the best of my ability!