u/BendTrends

PashtunForums.com seems to be restored!

Hi all,

I’ve been working on a long-term portfolio where the goal isn’t necessarily to maximize CAGR. I’m trying to get reasonable equity-like returns while having multiple independent return streams so I’m not relying entirely on stocks and bonds behaving nicely together; I would like to preserve capital but also grow simultaneously.

My Current portfolio:
20% GDE — US equities + gold
20% RSIT — international equities + managed futures
20% GOVZ — long-duration Treasury STRIPS
10% RSSX — US equities + gold/Bitcoin
10% KMLM — managed futures
10% CTA — managed futures
10% ILS — catastrophe/reinsurance bonds

Because GDE, RSIT and RSSX are stacked, the economic exposure is obviously greater than 100%. Roughly speaking, I’m getting around 50% equity exposure plus significant gold, managed futures, long-duration Treasuries, catastrophe risk and a small amount of Bitcoin.
The idea is that different pieces should work in different environments: equities for long-term growth, gold for inflation/monetary problems, GOVZ for recession/deflation, managed futures for persistent trends and ILS as a return stream that should be relatively independent of traditional markets.

few things I’m questioning:
Is 20% GOVZ too much? It’s obviously enormous duration risk. On the other hand, I bought after the huge drawdown and yields are now much more attractive, and I specifically want something capable of really helping during a deflationary equity crash; I bought it after it was already 60%

Is RSSX redundant? Since GDE already gives me substantial gold exposure, RSSX adds even more gold plus a small Bitcoin allocation. I’ve considered replacing the 10% RSSX with something genuinely different. What would that be?

Would 5–10% BTAL improve this? I like having something with negative equity beta that doesn’t require Treasury yields to fall. But BTAL’s long-term return has been poor, so I’m worried that allocating 10% to it would create too much structural drag.

What am I missing? I’m particularly interested in genuinely independent return streams rather than simply adding another stock factor. I looked at carry/RSSY, but carry doesn’t seem nearly as useful in a 2008-style deleveraging event as something like ILS.

I’m not trying to optimize based on the last five years or create something that wins every year. This is intended to be a long-term portfolio that can survive 2008 deflation, 2022-style inflation/rate shocks, sideways markets, and normal bull markets without requiring me to predict which regime comes next; i suck at that.

Please give me your thoughts :)

The allocation is:

20% GDE
20% RSIT
20% GOVZ
10% RSSX
15% KMLM
15% CTA

Under the hood, this keeps my equity risk strictly capped at 48% Global Equities (28% US / 20% Int'l

50% Managed Futures (diversified across RSIT's SG Trend, KMLM's pure trend, and CTA's fundamental carry to strip out hidden equity beta)

And about 28% Gold/Hard Money for stagflation/fiat hedging, and 20% GOVZ (25+ Year STRIPS)

I know the 20% GOVZ allocation leaves me vulnerable to a fast, non-trending real-rate shock (like a taper tantrum), but am I missing any other overlapping risks, capacity issues, or correlation traps here

Goal is capital preservation with reasonable hedges - what would you do?

Thanks!

Hi,

I have been running this ~ cockroach portfolio: which is 25% across spy, gldm, tlt, and managed futures.

I have been learning about return stacking for a while, and have now aligned on the follow below:

Super Cockroach (30% RSST / 30% GOVZ / 30% GDE / 10% RSSY)

Would love the community's feedback

note: not interested in international exposure, and carry for me was a new way to help me in sideways markets.