u/BigBoSS_Riot

There were three large victories in the top flight this week (one coming from a rather surprising source), while conversely, Kashima Antlers have doubled down on their method to win, scoring in the 98th minute to nab a late victory over Grampus. There were even more dominant wins lower in the pyramid, with Ehime scoring three goals after the 80th minute to make it 4-0 against Gainare Tottori, the rapid-rising Tochigi City battering Vanraure Hachinohe 5-0, and FC Gifu putting 7 past Kochi United. The fireworks were reserved for Zweigen Kanazawa, who were 0-2 down early, before a strong fightback in the second half culminated in a 94th minute winner for them over Fukushima United.

Stat of the week: Kataller Toyama desecrated Blaublitz Akita, winning 0-4 after an astonishing 33 shots (to Akita's 2).

Extra note: For anybody wondering why this is seemingly a day late, it's timed to the end of the matchday in all three tiers, as one J2 match and two J3 matches only just finished. This'll be the format going forward, as I think it's more fair to include clubs from all three tiers.

It was a largely lower-scoring opening weekend after an explosive start on Friday night with two 4-3s involving late comebacks. 13 out of 19 J2 and J3 matches had at least one clean sheet with little in the way of the earlier shootouts, as sides found their feet in the beginning throes of the competitive season. Shimizu S-Pulse pulled off a bit of a shock result, defeating Nagoya Grampus for only the second time in 14 attempts in spite of a second half red card. And Tochigi City pulled off a big comeback, scoring two late goals to jag a win against Zweigen Kanazawa.

Fun stat of the week: In the top flight, Cerezo Osaka had the least touches in the box this weekend, with 9 (compared to the opposing Okayama's 31), which was a very clincal performance by them. I'm interested in whether this'll become a pattern in the weeks going forward after their managerial change, given they've been ranked in the top eight in this stat in all of the last three seasons.

On the eve of the season, what are we expecting to see this season? Any table predictions, potential surprises or successes for any club or player?

(Apologies for this being so late - should've been up at least a couple of days ago.)

I've been meaning to put this together for a few days now, but it is finally complete. Includes observations on the match itself, as well as some thoughts on our new manager's interesting first press conference.

I only dream to be as ambitious as Tomokazu.

An opinion piece I've been working on for a while now. I've been somewhere between bemused and annoyed about the way the media has been dismissive about Sydney's prospects (as well as those of Fremantle lately), so I put together a neutral assessment of where they're at, and why some concerns have been overblown in my view.

Probably the last J League centric post on this subreddit before the World Cup kicks off (unless someone wants the six TOTS sides uploaded here).

I've never done something like this before for Association Football, so keen to hear any feedback. Player thoughts are the main body text, with some thoughts on tactics at the end if people were specifically interested in that.

A hectic final day of the J League half season came to a close in Kawasaki. The two sides who got mauled last week (Kashima and Kyoto) managed to put some respectability on the scoreboard, though changing the result was always going to be a bridge too far. Marinos thumped Shimizu S-Pulse to round out a better ending to the season, and Cerezo continued their exceptional final couple of months with a win at FC Tokyo. Across the two legs, West had 7 wins to East's 3, for those who were interested in that.

Vegalta Sendai were the eventual winners of the 2/3 competition, after a gruelling duel with Kataller Toyama that went to penalties, and Tegevajaro Miyazaki beat Ventforet Kofu to third place in the overall standings.

Inspired by this post earlier, I decided to get a slightly different look at it, looking at the finishing positions of the mid-season top four sides (using the same sample size of 2000-2025). Bye rounds make a bit of a mess of things at times, but I picked round 11 as it was the midpoint for the majority of these seasons.

Stayed Top 4 - 69

Finished 5th to 8th - 27^

Missed The Finals - 8 (Richmond 2000, Essendon 2007, Essendon 2012, Collingwood 2014, Collingwood 2015, St Kilda 2022, Essendon 2024, Melbourne 2024)

Seasons where all four stayed the same - 3 (2002, 2017, 2023).^^

Seasons where two of the round 11 top four made the Grand Final - 11 (2002, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2023).^^^

^I put Essendon in their actual finishing position in 2013 (7th), for the sake of consistency.

^^2008 and 2009 nearly did this, with Adelaide missing top four by 0.9% in 2008, and Collingwood being 9.3% behind Carlton at the midway stage of 2009 (taking 4th place the week after and never ceding it).

^^^2016 and 2021 are the obvious anomalies here, given that the Dogs didn't actually stay in the top four in those seasons.

It was the first matchday of the season in the top flight in which normal draws were back on the menu, and four of the first six matches (and six of the ten in the round) delivered them. Beyond that, the victory ledger in the first legs ended 3-1 in favour of the west based sides, though they were of course the hosts for all of these matches.

There was the one obvious massive surprise, but one other that likely took many off guard was Kashiwa Reysol putting 6 past Kyoto Sanga. This was their highest return since a 7-1 thumping of Yamanashi Gakuin University in the Emperor's Cup three years ago. It's also Reysol's fourth consecutive win, which is a big positive for them after a difficult season.

Down in 2/3, the incredibly dominant Tegevajaro Miyazake - who had a 15-2-1 record, and who had scored the fourth most goals and conceded the outright least out of the 40 sides - were thwarted by Kataller Toyama. Vegalta Sendai edged past Ventforet Kofu in the bout in the east to set up the final for next week. Two matches saw heavy scoring, with Nara Club being 1-3 down after 80 minutes but coming back to win 4-3 after extra time, and Sagamihara beating Fujieda 4-3 - despite the score being 1-1 after 90 minutes.

I tried giving every club a fair review for this piece. It was a little difficult for the sides I haven't watched as much, and I was perhaps a little overly positive at times, but I didn't want to exclude anyone.

Written from Monday to Thursday (was supposed to be done yesterday, but I was procrastinating). I didn't keep a log of how long it took, but I'd guess 7 to 11 hours.

https://medium.com/@BigBoSS_Riot/afl-half-season-review-d55861a3fca0

A lot of high scoring across the league in the final regular matchday, as the table positions across both divisions were fully established. The top two in the East had a fascinating tussle, albeit it wasn't deciding their positions. Kashiwa Reysol continued their improved form with a strong win over Chiba, and Marinos massacred the usually defensively stout Tokyo Verdy. In the West, Hiroshima powered past Nagoya Grampus to prevent any chance of them stealing 1st, and Cerezo swooped upon the opportunity to nab second with a win over a very competitive Fagiano Okayama.

The lower tier also saw plenty of high scoring with Thespa Gunma thumping Sagamihara 7-2, in a match where three goals were scored in four minutes at one point. Nara Club also jumped Kataller Toyama 5-1, though the latter likely weren't fighting at full capacity, as they already had first place locked up. And Consadole Sapporo's magnificent winning run ended with a defeat to Jubilo Iwata, leaving them 2nd in their group.

I spent 7 hours writing this across the last couple of days. It's not my best piece, and the order is a little questionable at times, but I figured a few people in here might enjoy it for what it is.

https://medium.com/@BigBoSS\_Riot/ranking-harley-reids-first-49-afl-games-3ef0188bbaee

To celebrate the great man's upcoming achievement, I thought I'd have a go at this. This took about 7 hours to put together, and I was kind of unsure on the rankings, but it was honestly a lot of fun. Not at the depth level of my last piece here, but I digress.

https://medium.com/@BigBoSS_Riot/ranking-harley-reids-first-49-afl-games-3ef0188bbaee

(Sorry if this is the wrong post flair, I wasn't quite sure what to go with.)

A couple of big swings late this weekend. Kashima Antlers guaranteed first place and a chance at the one-off trophy with a solid win over JEF United Chiba, while FC Tokyo were held at bay, but won on penalites to effectively wrap up second place (given the goal difference advantage over Machida Zelvia).

Mayhem in the West took place on Sunday, with three fantastic saves in the shootout by Goto to give V-Varen Nagasaki a massive win over Kobe, before two maulings took place to send the fight for first to the final day. And even now, with only one match to play, the biggest gap in the West is three points. It's been a frankly staggering season, given the competitiveness and the rarity of consistent results. The biggest win streak of any side in the West was Vissel Kobe's four across late March and early April.

In the lower leagues, while they've likely left it too late, Consadole Sapporo have now won seven straight matches (with a cumulative score of 18-6). They'd need to win against Jubilo Iwata next week while Ventforet Kofu lose to last place Nagano Parceiro (who have the lowest points total of any side in the second/third division) to snag first place in East-B - very unlikely, but still technically possible. An extra note on East-B, neither of those two have the best goal difference in their subset - that'd be seventh placed Matsumoto Yamaga.

Another hectic matchday comes to a close. Reysol snapped a six game losing streak, and all of the top three combatants in the east stretched their advantage over the rest. In the west, Kobe's advantage has now been completely eroded.

In the second/third tier, Vegalta Sendai have guaranteed themselves a place in the top four finals, winning on penalties against Vanraure Hachinohe while Shonan Bellmare lost to Yokohama FC. Ditto for Kataller Toyama, who have a 7 point lead over Kochi United. Tegevajaro Miyazaki locked their spot in a while ago at this point, such is the enormity of their lead. East-B is the only undecided group, with Ventforet Kofu needing 3 points in the last two matches to secure their place in the overall top four.

As always, keen to hear from those of you who watched any matches.

A messy midweek matchday saw the bottom two sides in the west notch up wins (Avispa Fukuoka are really putting together some good results now), and JEF United Chiba picking up a fantastic win against a very high calibre FC Tokyo side. Of note, Cerezo Osaka lost their first penalty shootout in three months to Shimizu S-Pulse after conceding a very late penalty in regular time.

In the second/third tier, Ventforet Kofu and Iwaki FC both lost. It keeps East-B incredibly tight, with only 2 points splitting the top three, and 7 points splitting the top eight. And Sagan Tosu registered their biggest win in over two years and scored four goals in a match for the first time in 23 matches, which is a fantastic achievement for them.

An exceptional matchday really, with plenty of stumbles from table toppers all over Japan - Kobe being unceremoniously stomped 5-0 by Gamba, Kashima winning on penalties (for the first time this season) but now leaving the door firmly ajar for FC Tokyo, Iwaki FC winning on penalties but ceding the lead of EastB to Ventforet Kofu, Tegevajaro Miyazaki losing on penalties to former top flight side Sagan Tosu after a five game run in which they'd scored 13 goals without conceding one, and Vegalta Sendai's invincible run ending after a 1-3 defeat to Akita Blaublitz (I feel like I jinxed them by bringing this up in midweek... sorry). On a similar note, Tokushima Vortis, who had been leading their group until very recently, were steamrolled 6-0 by an Ehime FC side who were relegated from J2 last year.

Elsewhere, the only drawless side in the top flight in Marinos came up against the (equal) most draw-happy side in Hollyhock, and were at long last sent to a penalty shootout - Hollyhock won it comfortably, and you'd have to think it was due to all the practice they'd had. This actually ended a 26 game streak for Marinos, as their last draw was at the end of August against Zelvia.

As an aside, I'm certainly looking forward to seeing the highlights of Cerezo vs Avsipa, given Avispa's opener was apparently scored from about 40 metres out.