u/Boring_Waltz_9545

GROSSES ANALYSIS- Week Ending October 4

GROSSES ANALYSIS- Week Ending October 4

Broadway had a decent rebound week from the catastophe that was last week (weather definitely playing a role here). Some of this as well is shows opening up for the fall season, a trend that will continue. The longer running shows did show some positive signs, though not as much as prior years and many did not show positive enough signs to be in a "healthy" spot. Total gross is down 12% compared to this week last year, with one additional show open. That ain't good. But next week is a holiday weekend so grosses are set to improve short term.

Season-to-date difference from last year:

Gross Gross: -7.5%

Total Attendance: -2.2%

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $884k, 80% capacity, $93 atp (Up ~$43k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $778k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-$(100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

Moderate increase for Gatsby. Their big news this week was putting tickets on sale through June of next year. Whether that's functionally an extension or a temperature check on demand for a fourth year on Broadway I don't know. Week to week they're at best breaking even.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $675k gross, 79% capacity, $110 atp (Down ~$5k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $588k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

Maybe Happy Ending's first stunt cast comes in the form of Stella Cole taking of the role of Gil starting in a couple of weeks. It's a short stunt cast with not a whole lot of lead in time (much less than say, Jose Iglesias in BVSC), so we'll see how it all goes. I suspect however that it will be a referendum on demand for more stunt casts moving forward. Hopefully it works, it's becoming clear that they need something more than the status quo- this was another tough week, not good to be down even further this week.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $719k gross, 90% capacity, $125 atp (Up ~$49k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $626k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Mincemeat rebounded quite nicely and had a good week. They've also recently announced a couple of extensions, now through next April. They're doing fabulously for a show in their position, no two ways about it.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $811k gross, 94% capacity, $102 atp (Up ~$7k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $699k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

Slight increase for Buena Vista but not much. This was initially set to be the final week of Jose Iglesias in the show, though he has now extended through November, and will be joined by Gina Torres starting next week. They've got a revolving door of planned stunt casts, and I really hope it works for them, early returns are promising.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $503k gross, 65% capacity, $93 atp, (Up ~$27k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Closing November 29, 2026

Gross Less-Fees: $428k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)

Better week for Two Strangers than last, though they're still not making money week to week in all likelihood. Hopefully grosses and capacity start to tick up heading into its final weeks on Broadway.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $774k gross, 92% capacity, $105 atp, (Up ~$75k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through February 28, 2027.

Gross Less-Fees: $598k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)

Better week for Rocky Horror. If there's ever a month for them to do well it's this one. Really it was entirely a capacity jump the average ticket price is identical to last week.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%-20%

➡The Lost Boys- $1.1 million gross, 89% capacity, $104 atp, (Up ~$47k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $940k ; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $950k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2); Tonys (4)

Even though it's a better week than last for Lost Boys, these are still fairly low grosses for them. I suspect during the holiday weekend however they're going to have a GREAT week.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $969k gross, 95% capacity, $111 atp (Up ~$97k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $829k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*); Tonys (4*)

Better week for Schmigadoon as expected, though these are still low for a Best Musical winner. I'll be curious to see what kind of increase they see next week in a more touristy week.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Woof, hopefully these grosses pick up as we get closer to the holidays.. Closing January 3, 2027

Paranormal Activity- Word of mouth is clearly building here, they've been steadily increasing for a while now. Limited Through January 3, 2027.

School Girls; Or, The African Mean Girls Play- Great slate of reviews for them, and some really strong sales. Limited Through November 15

Imaginary Invalid- These grosses aren't phenomenal or anything but they're not bad. Limited Through November 22

Other Desert Cities- Yet another celebrity filled play revival at the Hudson is putting eye watering numbers. These numbers are very good, as would be expected. Limited Through January 17

860- Pretty good first week, Billy Crystal can still be a draw it seems. Can't imagine this is a terribly expensive show to run either. Limited Through January 3, 2027

I'm a contributor for Broadway World! My most recent article can be found here- an examination of Broadway's Non-Profit Theatres. A full archive of my work can be found here!

Discuss below, please remember to keep it kind and civil!

u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 9 days ago

GROSSES ANALYSIS- Week Ending August 9

We're starting to get towards the end of the summer highs, and so many shows posted slight decreases at the box office last week, though of course with a few notable exceptions, mostly having to do with closings. But this week is a couple million higher than this week last year, which is a good sign, though we'll have to see how that holds up next week without Cats and DOAS.

As well, the fall season is almost upon us! The first (legitimate) show of the 26/27 Broadway season Paranormal Activity begins performances on Friday at the August Wilson!

Season-to-date difference from last year:

Gross Gross: -4.2%

Total Attendance: +0.1%

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $916k, 83% capacity, $93 atp (Up ~$44k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $806k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-(100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

China Anne McClain's first week of performances yielded a slight improvement at the box office in a week where many shows saw decreases. I think 900k is the floor of what's truly sustainable for Gatsby, and this is above that, but not by much. Hopefully they can show some signs of improvement from here, but this is a decent start for her.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $754k gross, 92% capacity, $104 atp (Up ~$28k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $656k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

Maybe Happy Ending's steady upward trajectory continues, bucking industry trends. It's taken a couple of months for audiences to buy into this show without Darren Criss, but it seems we're getting there, though there's still a little ways to go. I think there's a decent shot of this trend continuing, they're moving on the right track.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $660k gross, 96% capacity, $108 atp (Down ~36k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $574k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Mincemeat, moving in lock step with most of the the rest of the industry, saw a slight decrease week on week. But this isn't a bad spot for them, mostly I'm sending healing thoughts in the direction of the cast.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $691k gross, 92% capacity, $89 atp (Down ~$28k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $601k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-(100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

BVSC dropped some like many other shows around the industry. They're counting down the days before Jose Iglesias joins the cast, and I suspect they're just going to ride the waves of the industry until then.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡️Ragtime- $1.8 million gross, 100% capacity, $220 atp, (Down ~$33k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 16, 2026

Gross Less-Fees: $1.613 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $1 million/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2); Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama League (4*); Drama Desk (5*); Tonys (4*)

In an interesting turn of events, Ragtime did not break their own box office record this week, instead posting a very slight decrease week to week. We'll see how crazy their grosses are next week.

Estimated percentage recouped: 70%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $527k gross, 69% capacity, $91 atp, (Down ~$29k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $448k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)

Two Strangers dropped some again, they're another one that seems they're just riding the waves of the industry. We'll see where they go from here.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Cats: The Jellicle Ball- $1.8 million gross, 102% capacity, $193 atp, (Up ~$422k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Closed August 8.

Gross Less-Fees: $1.564 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2*)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (4); Tonys (9*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (3); Tonys (3)

Cats the Jellicle Ball broke the 8 performance week box office record at the Broadhurst in its final week of performances. A cast recording is planned, intermission remixes are released on soundcloud. It's a shame this joyous show closed as early as it did (and there are about 50 million think pieces on this already), all I will add to that is I hope this is cause for some unity across the industry targeting the excessive costs shows face. Maybe a lofty goal, but one can hope.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Titanique- $759k gross, 79% capacity, $89 atp, (Down ~$63k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.

Gross Less-Fees: $649k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)

Titanique slipped some after a pretty strong month. Hopefully they can have a decent last couple of months on Broadway before they close.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $758k gross, 81% capacity, $117 atp, (Down ~$56k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through February 28*.*

Gross Less-Fees: $648k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)

Rocky Horror continues to slow down. I think they'll get a bump at the end of the current casts run, and then it's anyone's guess how the new cast does there. But this is a pretty slow week for them, hopefully they can improve moving forward.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%-20%

➡The Lost Boys- $1.3 million gross, 90% capacity, $113 atp, (Down ~$161k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $1.159 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $950k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2); Tonys (4)

Lost Boys dropped pretty significantly, though they're still in a good spot all things considered. This show seems to be a spiritual successor to the Outsiders (though of course Outsiders continues to run on Broadway and have strong grosses). I continue to think the best sign for Lost Boys by far is the fact that they are filling the house at a ticket price below the industry average, yet they are in all likelihood making money right now. That's a model that could prove to be very sustainable long term.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $1.0 million gross, 95% capacity, $117 atp (Down ~$118k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $987k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*); Tonys (4*)

Schmigadoon took another step back this week, as it continues to be one of the weaker performing Best Musical winners of the past few years (though this is the week historically that even big hits like Outsiders started to slip).

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Slower week in the slower week overall, riding the industries tide. Closing January 3, 2027

Every Brilliant Thing- Great week to close things out. Happy Trails!  Closed August 9.

Death of a Salesman- Had their highest grossing week in their final week of the run. Happy Trails to all! Closed August 9.

I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- a look at Word of Mouth, how it's defined, and the way if affects shows. A full archive of my work can be found here!

Discuss below, please remember to keep it kind and civil.

u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 2 months ago

GROSSES ANALYSIS- Week Ending July 18

Broadway decreased some from last week, when very few shows had anywhere to go. Now this was the final week of the World Cup, with the final taking place on Sunday, so though there were many tourists in the city few of them were there for Broadway shows. There's a canary in the coal mine right now, next week will be very telling as to whether it survives. But Broadway cannot take another down week next week, otherwise we're probably looking at mass closures in the near future.

On that cheery note!

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $794k, 75% capacity, $91 atp (Down ~$4k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $699k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $(100k+)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

Gatsby didn't fall on their face this week which was good, but they're still definitely below their targets. We'll see what happens in August with them with the new cast.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $684k gross, 82% capacity, $102 atp (Down ~$28k from last week). Began performances es October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $571k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

Maybe Happy Ending lost a step week to week, and they're not really in a position to lose a step. They've been slowly loosing money for a little while now, something needs to change for them to regain their success.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $539k gross, 80% capacity, $106 atp (Down ~71k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $569k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Operation Mincemeat moved in the wrong direction- much more than most of their peer shows, few shows decreased as much as they did. Not a great sign, though they definitely have cash on hand to weather a storm for a bit, they lost money again last week. If Mincemeat has to close for financial reasons... it'll be REALLY bad.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $650k gross, 88% capacity, $87 atp (Down ~$400 from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $566k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-(100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

Buena Vista basically had the same week as last, which isn't a great sign for them, these grosses are too low to be sustainable. At this point I feel pretty confident saying they're going down the road of Hell's Kitchen rather than an MJ or &Juliet, that second year drop off has hit them super hard. They have the cash in all likelihood to continue for a while, they're not that far in the red, but these aren't great grosses.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡️Ragtime- $1.5 million gross, 100% capacity, $182 atp, (Down ~$32k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 16, 2026

Gross Less-Fees: $1.324 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2); Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama League (4*); Drama Desk (5*); Tonys (4*)

Ragtime continues to do their thing very well- even with the slight decrease. I suspect we'll see the house gross record broken before the show closes. They're also pacing well for recoupment before they close.

Estimated percentage recouped: 50%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $491k gross, 64% capacity, $91 atp, (Down ~$5k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $422k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)

Two Strangers struggled again. Even a show this cheap to operate is still likely losing money. I'd make it a priority to see if you haven't already, I don't know how long they intend to continue like this, even though they can run at this for probably a while.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Cats: The Jellicle Ball- $823k gross, 97% capacity, $104 atp, (Up ~$76k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Closing August 8.

Gross Less-Fees: $704k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k)+

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2*)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (4); Tonys (9*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (3); Tonys (3)

Cats immediately got a boost on the heels of their closing notice, in a 7 performance week (though still likely not enough to break even unfortunately). Hopefully these next few weeks are enough to convince the producers for a cast album, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's not enough given the shows relative struggles. Hopefully I'm wrong. If you haven't seen it, you should.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Titanique- $749k gross, 91% capacity, $77 atp, (Up ~$44k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.

Gross Less-Fees: $602k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)

Another week, another quarter million dollar loss for Titanique. We just got confirmation with Dolly that Titanique is unlikely to extend much further, not that their grosses would justify it. Hopefully they have the cash on hand to make it to mid-september.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $1.0 million gross, 93% capacity, $143 atp, (Down ~$114k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through November 29.

Gross Less-Fees: N/A; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): N/A

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)

Another good week for Rocky, they increased to over $1 million again. I'll be curious to see how they do in August/September as the initial revival hype dies down some. I think they'll do just fine in October though (for obvious reasons).

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡The Lost Boys- $1.2 million gross, 89% capacity, $108 atp, (Down ~$102k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $1.089 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $950k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-$100k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2); Tonys (4)

The Lost Boys was one of the bigger losers week to week, but they're not in a bad spot if grosses don't decrease from here. Hopefully we get a recovery week after the World Cup final.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $1.0 million gross, 94% capacity, $117 atp (Down ~$55k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $871k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-$100k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*); Tonys (4*)

Another decent week for Schmigadoon, but these continue to be pretty terrible grosses for a recent Best Musical winner. They slipped some this week again, though they remain over $1 million. These low grosses continue to be a very bad sign for the industry, these are too low for the Best Musical winner. That said, it was a positive step, even if they're below where they probably should be.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Slipped some, but not terrible for them. Closing January 3, 2027

Every Brilliant Thing- It's a struggle right now at the Hudson. Hopefully it improves going forward.  Limited through August 9.

Death of a Salesman- Continues to be the play hit of the summer. Limited Through August 9.

Proof- Closed up with one of their best weeks yet. Happy Trails to the cast and crew! Limited Through July 19

Joe Turner's Come and Gone- Back up over $1 million, love to see it. Final Week! Limited Through July 26

I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- a look at Gen Z and Obsession and Broadway. A full archive of my work can be found here!

Discuss below, please remember to keep it kind and civil.

u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 3 months ago

GROSSES ANALYSIS- Week Ending July 12

Broadway had a much better week than last, though still pacing a bit below the past couple of years overall at the box office. Not great as costs continue to rise overall. We are both nearing the end of some limited runs, and it seems much of August is going to be pretty dark overall on Broadway. But, we take the wins where we can. We'll see how the next few weeks hold up as we get in towards the summer closings.

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $798k, 75% capacity, $90 atp (Up~$169k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $702k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $(100k+)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

Better week for Gatsby, but still much below where they need to be. I'm sure the production is working on where to take things from here,

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $684k gross, 87% capacity, $102 atp (Up ~$44k from last week). Began performances es October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $595k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

Maybe Happy Ending had a decent increase week to week, but they're still likely losing money right now. Tough to see where things go from here, they almost certainly have plenty of money in the bank, so they do have some flexibility.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $611k gross, 93% capacity, $103 atp (Up ~88k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $531k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Operation Mincemeat moved in the right direction this week, though they didn't increase as much as they decreased from the week before. But they are still in a relatively strong position, I will be curious to see how long they hold on to this cast, if they go down the full year contract road, or if they'll do the Hadestown model of switching things up every 6 months or so.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $650k gross, 85% capacity, $90 atp (Up ~$42k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $566k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-(100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

Buena Vista, like many shows, increased a respectable amount after last week's low. But they are still likely below where they need to be. They're showing a lot of similarities to Hell's Kitchen right now. Hell's Kitchen decreased an average of $600k a week in their second year compared to their first, and BVSC is in a similar spot. I hope they can figure out a way to turn things around.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡️Ragtime- $1.5 million gross, 100% capacity, $184 atp, (Up~$141k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 16, 2026

Gross Less-Fees: $1.351 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2); Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama League (4*); Drama Desk (5*); Tonys (4*)

Ragtime continues to do their thing very well. I suspect we'll see the house gross record broken before the show closes. They're also pacing well for recoupment before they close.

Estimated percentage recouped: 50%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $496k gross, 66% capacity, $90 atp, (Up ~$53k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $422k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)

Two Strangers struggled again. Even a show this cheap to operate is still likely losing money. I'd make it a priority to see if you haven't already, I don't know how long they intend to continue like this.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Cats: The Jellicle Ball- $766k gross, 87% capacity, $85 atp, (Up ~$76k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Closing August 8.

Gross Less-Fees: $656k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k)+

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2*)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (4); Tonys (9*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (3); Tonys (3)

In a week of already very unfortunate news, Cats: The Jellicle Ball announced that they will play their final performance on August 8. It's really, really unfortunate, in many ways. Best wishes of course to the cast and crew of this show.

Cats had another challenging week at the box office, it's not entirely surprising that they've announced closing. I thought Cats: The Jellicle Ball had a really interesting overarching model, but one that was likely flawed from the start. Though of course it's a revival, it had a path very similar to a new musical. It started life downtown, and after critical acclaim and a sold out, extended engagement that played for nearly three months, it announced a Broadway transfer. It opened on Broadway in April, a couple of weeks before Tony nominations, without any major names. But it did all of this while having the elevated operating cost, and diminished long-term financial outlook, of a revival. And beyond that, a (albeit radically different) revival of a show that was on Broadway less than 10 years ago, and in touring houses less than 5 years ago.

That model is challenging even in the best of times, I can't think of another recent, successful, example with a revival that was the scale of Jellicle Ball, that started with a true downtown run, and then transferred. It might be as simple as its best opportunity of commercial success was last year, 12 months closer to the virality and hype from the off-Broadway production, but that would have come with its own challenges.

But these are things that might have kept it from recouping it's capitalization, not from running more than six months.

If you haven't already seen it, do yourself a favor and go to the Broadhurst before it closes, it's a wonderful production, and it feels like a rarity that we see such a joyful show.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Titanique- $704k gross, 80% capacity, $81 atp, (Up ~$113k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.

Gross Less-Fees: $602k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)

Another week, another quarter million dollar loss for Titanique. We just got confirmation with Dolly that Titanique is unlikely to extend much further, not that their grosses would justify it. Hopefully they have the cash on hand to make it to mid-september.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $1.0 million gross, 93% capacity, $143 atp, (Up ~$114k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through November 29.

Gross Less-Fees: N/A; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): N/A

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)

Another good week for Rocky, they increased to over $1 million again. I'll be curious to see how they do in August/September as the initial revival hype dies down some. I think they'll do just fine in October though (for obvious reasons).

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡The Lost Boys- $1.3 million gross, 93% capacity, $111 atp, (Up ~$275k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $1.176 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $950k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-$100k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2); Tonys (4)

One of the only shows to fully make up from last weeks losses plus a little bit more to boot, The Lost Boys responded with a vengeance this week, and they probably made money too. Not bad at all, we'll see how long this can hold up for.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $1.0 million gross, 97% capacity, $120 atp (Up ~$165k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $919k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-$100k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*); Tonys (4*)

Another decent week for Schmigadoon, but these continue to be pretty terrible grosses for a recent Best Musical winner. They increased from last weeks lows, but not as much as they decreased to get there in the first place. These low grosses continue to be a very bad sign for the industry, these are too low for the Best Musical winner. That said, it was a positive step, even if they're below where they probably should be.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Better week for them in the overall stronger week. Closing January 3, 2027

Every Brilliant Thing- Tracee Ellis Ross's first week was a bit of a struggle commercially. Luckily it's a one-person show, so they're likely doing just fine.  Limited through August 9.

Death of a Salesman- Continues to be the play hit of the summer. Limited Through August 9.

Dog Day Afternoon- Closed up slightly, they had some strong grosses out the gate but some poor reviews and little awards recognition they sputtered out towards the end of their run. Happy Trails! Closing July 12.

Proof- Final Week! Limited Through July 19

Joe Turner's Come and Gone- Back up over $1 million, love to see it. Two weeks! Limited Through July 26

I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- some musings on the World Cup. A full archive of my work can be found here!

Discuss below, please remember to keep it kind and civil.

This weeks post is dedicated to Josh Grisetti. His family has set up a GoFundMe if anyone feels led to support them in that way.

u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 3 months ago
▲ 111 r/Broadway

GROSSES ANALYSIS- Week Ending July 7

Another July 4th, another instance of some of the lowest grosses you will see on Broadway this year on a per-show basis. The early summer slump is no joke, and this year is no exception, in some ways it's even worse. Every single show operating on Broadway right now decreased at the box office from last week. Last year this time there were 30 shows open, two less than this year, but grosses were over $1 million higher overall. There are many potential reasons for this decrease, but one this is for certain: it's horrible news for Broadway.

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $628k, 64% capacity, $83 atp (Down ~$82k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $552k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $(100k+)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

Gatsby is definitely needing something to breathe some life into the show at this point. Whether that's an all new cast, or a stunt cast, or whatever, these grosses definitely aren't sustainable. Hopefully Naturi Naughton-Lewis can move the needle some for them.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $639k gross, 84% capacity, $97 atp (Down ~$10k from last week). Began performances es October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $556k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

In a slightly backhanded way this was actually one of the more positive signs of the week, Maybe Happy Ending had the smallest decrease of any show week to week. Why that is I'm not entirely sure, Now these are still low grosses for them, but if this can be their bottoming out for the time being, this could be a sign to build on.

Also- huge congratulations to the entire team at the Belasco on Maybe Happy Ending becoming the longest running show in the theatre's history this week!

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $522k gross, 82% capacity, $101 atp (Down ~139k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $454k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Toughest week so far for the new cast of Operation Mincemeat, and these are some of the first signs of them being significantly below the OG cast. Last year this week they grosses in the low 600s, and this week was down from that, although not too bad. They should be able to rebound ok from this moving forward.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $608k gross, 91% capacity, $80 atp (Down ~$98k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $529k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $(100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

BVSC decided to fill the house by significantly decreasing ticket prices- and it worked well enough, their average capacity held steady week to week, even though their ticket price fell off a cliff (they were one of a few shows to do this). I'll be intrigued to watch some of these newer shows that tried this (Cats did it too), see if it can turn into a second round of building some word of mouth. Could be a clever way to make lemonade from a lemon of a week, or it might have just cheapened their product in the long run. We'll see which it is.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡️Ragtime- $1.4 million gross, 100% capacity, $167 atp, (Down ~$112k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 16, 2026

Gross Less-Fees: $1.229 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2); Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama League (4*); Drama Desk (5*); Tonys (4*)

Ragtime continues to do their thing very well. I suspect we'll see the house gross record broken before the show closes. They're also pacing well for recoupment before they close. They're basically the only show I cover in depth that I would say had a great week.

Estimated percentage recouped: 50%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $443k gross, 70% capacity, $90 atp, (Down ~$88k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $377k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)

Even the cheapest new musical to open on Broadway since 2020 can't outrun grosses this poor I'm sorry to say. Even though this week is something of an anomaly and Two Strangers is an inexpensive show to run, these grosses are unsustainably low. Their producer, Kevin McCollum, has been occasionally known to keep a show open for a while if it's somewhat on the bubble (like The Notebook), so it might not be in imminent danger, but it can't take many more weeks like this.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Cats: The Jellicle Ball- $691k gross, 87% capacity, $85 atp, (Down ~$202k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $591k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k)+

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2*)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (4); Tonys (9*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (3); Tonys (3)

Really bad week for Cats. They prioritized filling the house and are taking the hit on ticket price, like BVSC, but these grosses are way too low for this show to run on. Hopefully it can pick up, some, but shows rarely do as well the rest of the year as they do in their June near the Tony Awards, and I'm not sure those grosses even were high enough to be sustainable for this show...

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Titanique- $590k gross, 76% capacity, $72 atp, (Down ~$110k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.

Gross Less-Fees: $505k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)

Another week, another quarter million dollar loss for Titanique. We just got confirmation with Dolly that Titanique is unlikely to extend much further, not that their grosses would justify it. Hopefully they have the cash on hand to make it to mid-september.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $935k gross, 87% capacity, $135 atp, (Down~$279k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through November 29.

Gross Less-Fees: N/A; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): N/A

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)

Not a bad week for Rocky Horror in the scheme of things, they obviously dropped significantly week to week, but this is probably high enough gross for the size of show it is to not have lost money.

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡The Lost Boys- $1.1 million gross, 87% capacity, $95 atp, (Down ~$268k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $1.164 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $950k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($50k)-$50k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2); Tonys (4)

Another decrease for Lost Boys, more significant this time. This isn't too bad for them, they can probably come back up from this, but I wouldn't say much lower than this is long term sustainable for them.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $908k gross, 97% capacity, $101 atp (Down ~$220k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $777k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*); Tonys (4*)

Not to be alarmist, but these are like Kimberly Akimbo level grosses for Schmigadoon, relatively speaking. They have gotten so little bump for winning Best Musical, they should have increased this week (and last). Instead they are down $300k from two weeks ago. That's alarming, these grosses are a huge red flag for both the show and the industry.

Now their capacity increased, which is good, it's still a bad sign that they haven't sold out the theatre for a week yet. I expect them to do better moving forward, but they should be peaking in mid-August, not third week of June...

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- It's a bad week for the industry, and they took a hit. Not shocking. Closing January 3, 2027

Every Brilliant Thing- Mariska Hargitay did well in her final week, these were overall super strong grosses. Excited to see how Tracee Ellis Ross fares in the role. Limited through August 9.

Death of a Salesman- Continues to be the play hit of the summer. Limited Through August 9.

Dog Day Afternoon- Final week! Closing July 12.

Proof- Awards shut out definitely hurt them, but they're still making some money. Two weeks! Limited Through July 19

Joe Turner's Come and Gone- Didn't pick up any Tony Awards, but continues to run well. Limited Through July 26

I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- a grosses analysis of this season's Tony nominated shows. A full archive of my work can be found here!

Discuss below, please remember to keep it kind and civil.

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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 3 months ago
▲ 133 r/Broadway

I'm Back! Grosses Analysis Week Ending June 28

Hello all! I'm back from vacation. Big thanks to u/ms_jc_04 and u/dsbuddy for picking up the slack while I was away! Lots of interesting stuff from the past two weeks (And this week).

Industry wide, grosses dropped, many shows were down (especially those that did not win major awards or were not closing). Some of that of course is from limited runs ending (and Chess), and next week we will see a similar phenomena as three shows wrapped up shop last week- those being Death Becomes Her, The Fear of 13, and Giant.

On the World Cup side of things, it almost feels like there has not been any change, positively or negatively, from the increased tourist presence (maybe slightly negative). Difficult to tell at this point based on the data, but most of the shows are showing signs consistent with typical end of June patterns, with one exception...

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $711k, 69% capacity, $86 atp (Down ~$64k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $625k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $(100k+)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

Gatsby is really in a tough spot right now, though it seems they're heading for a cast refresh in about a month. Based on these numbers, it likely can't come soon enough. These are well below operating profit numbers for them.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $649k gross, 81% capacity, $103 atp (Down ~$60k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $565k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

Maybe Happy Ending continues their struggles from the past month or so, really ever since Darren Criss left the cast for good. They're starting to try things to galvanize their fanbase some as they become the longest running show in the history of the Belasco Theatre in a week or so's time. Hopefully they can manage to muster up better grosses once again.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Death Becomes Her*- $1.2 million gross, 94% capacity, $109 atp (Up ~$342k from last week). Began performances October 23, 2024, Closed June 28, 2026.*

Gross Less-Fees: $692k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2025 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Final week of performances for Death Becomes Her, and likely their first week making money since February. Really glad to see their attendance figures finally ticked up at the end of the run. It's really surprising just how much of a cliff their numbers fell off this year, and I'm sad and disappointed that the production took only the one shot at recasting, I think that was an error.

Regardless, happy trails to the cast and crew of Death Becomes Her, and I'm excited for the tour! I suspect it will have a longer and happier life on the road than it did on Broadway.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $662k gross, 91% capacity, $115 atp (Up ~$25k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $576k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($50k)-$50k

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Mincemeat continues to hang out in the mid 600s, not too dissimilar from much of last year. They're keeping the average ticket price pretty healthy. It feels like they've settled into this as a groove, which is not a bad place for them to be.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $707k gross, 91% capacity, $92 atp (Down ~$33k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $615k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-(100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

BVSC has had a pretty tough couple of weeks. These grosses aren't great, they likely need to improve a decent amount if they're to be considered safe moving forward. Attendance is still healthy which is good, but the average ticket price is likely prohibitively low.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡️Ragtime- $1.5 million gross, 100% capacity, $181 atp, (Up ~$51k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 16, 2026

Gross Less-Fees: $1.327 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2); Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama League (4*); Drama Desk (5*); Tonys (4*)

Ragtime continues to do their thing very well, these are some of the highest grosses yet of their entire run, just below the gross record they set in the winter. I suspect we'll see that record broken before the show closes. They're also pacing well for recoupment before they close.

Estimated percentage recouped: 50%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $528k gross, 70% capacity, $90 atp, (Down ~$88k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $449k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)

Tough to figure out where Two Strangers can go from here unfortunately. After a decent showing for them last week they struggled once again. I think this is one to prioritize seeing.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Cats: The Jellicle Ball- $893k gross, 85% capacity, $113 atp, (Down ~$126k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $764k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2*)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (4); Tonys (9*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (3); Tonys (3)

Cats continues to put up relatively low grosses. Even with some of their recent budget tightening, it might not be enough to make these sorts of grosses sustainable.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Titanique- $701k gross, 76% capacity, $86 atp, (Down ~$71k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.

Gross Less-Fees: $600k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)

Titanique continues to hold right around where they've been, which continues to be not great. Hopefully they play through their limited run.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $1.2 million gross, 99% capacity, $158 atp, (Up ~$56k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through November 29.

Gross Less-Fees: N/A; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): N/A

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)

Rocky Horror continues to be the other hit musical revival from this season. They just set the gross record at Studio 54, huge congratulations to the entire team!

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡The Lost Boys- $1.3 million gross, 87% capacity, $118 atp, (Down ~$78k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $1.164 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2); Tonys (4)

Lost Boys is still putting up some of the strongest numbers of the new musical crop from this season, even with their decrease. Glad to see it!

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $1.1 million gross, 94% capacity, $117 atp (Down ~$98k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $818k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*); Tonys (4*)

These grosses are a pretty big warning sign for Schmigadoon. Usually after a show wins Best Musical (or revival) there is a ramp up in grosses through much of the summer- Maybe Happy Ending it went through to August before their grosses took a step back as an example. Taking a step back at the box office two weeks after winning it all is a worrying sign indeed.

But still, over $1 million is nothing to sneeze at, this could be a sign of a decreased domestic tourist audience right now with the World Cup. But if that's the case international tourists have not picked up the slack.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Trundling along at $800. Not bad not great. Closing January 3, 2027

Every Brilliant Thing- Mariska Hargitay may not be Daniel Radcliffe at the box office but well over $1 million in grosses is really very respectable. Love to see it! Tracee Ellis Ross starting July 7. Limited through August 9.

Death of a Salesman- Continues to be the play hit of the summer. Limited Through August 9.

Giant- Closed up, great run! Happy Trails to all who worked on it. Closed June 28

Dog Day Afternoon- Two weeks left! Closing July 12.

The Fear of 13- They got a small closing bump, but not really much. This play never really caught on, even with the stars attached. Happy Trails! Closed June 28.

Proof- Awards shut out definitely hurt them, but they're still making some money. Three weeks! Limited Through July 19

Joe Turner's Come and Gone- Didn't pick up any Tony Awards, but continues to run well. Limited Through July 26

I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- a grosses analysis of this season's Tony nominated shows. A full archive of my work can be found here!

Discuss below, please remember to keep it kind and civil.

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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 4 months ago
▲ 130 r/Broadway

TONYS GROSSES ANALYSIS

Source- Broadway Grosses, Broadway Box Office -05/31/2026 (broadwayworld.com)

Apologies for the duplicate thread, the one week grosses release earlier in the day lol. Obviously the Tony Awards just happened, and grosses mostly help steady with a slight uptick, though many of the new shows had great weeks, as is often the case (except for shows that dropped a performance). But many longer running shows showed mild decreases, some of which is more concerning than others.

With the World Cup incoming and the Tony Awards having past, these next few weeks will certainly be interesting. I will be monitoring them from afar these next two weeks :).

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $833k, 78% capacity, $91 atp (Down ~$29k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $733k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

Gatsby decreased some, they've been in this 800-900 range for a little while now. It's not too bad but I cant imagine this is where they are targeting, it seems the current cast isn't selling quite as well as previous ones. But they have enough of a track record at this point, and typically strong summer grosses, that I suspect they're in a good not great spot overall.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $689k gross, 77% capacity, $114 atp (Down ~$88k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $599k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-(100k)

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

This weeks most concerning figure in my opinion, Maybe Happy Ending had a shocker of a week. That capacity number is maybe the most concerning, they just started a new cast but have been having a very tough time filling the house to see them. Makes it tough to build word of mouth for the new cast... Hopefully things can turn around for them soon.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Death Becomes Her- $795k gross, 76% capacity, $88 atp (Up ~$22k from last week). Began performances October 23, 2024, Closing June 28, 2026.

Gross Less-Fees: $692k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2025 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Death Becomes Her continues to move along steadily, although they have not yet hit their closing bump it seems, these attendance figures are still quite low. Hopefully it will all pick up in the coming weeks.

Link to my article discussing Death Becomes Her's closing notice on BroadwayWorld

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $637k gross, 86% capacity, $116 atp (Up ~$25k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $554k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($50k)-$50k

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Marginal improvement for Mincemeat this week. These grosses may still be a bit below their targets but in a week that was very much not about them, these aren't bad.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $733k gross, 91% capacity, $96 atp (Up ~$6k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $638k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-(100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

Marginal improvement as well for BVSC, mostly mirroring it's peer shows, but after the struggles last week these are still lower than they would probably like. The production has been pretty clearly trying different tactics of getting audiences to the show, notably the dance-along performances, with some success, so I don't think the show is in imminent danger. But these are still low numbers, and they're becoming ones to keep an eye on.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡️Ragtime- $1.3 million gross, 100% capacity, $154 atp, (Down ~$19k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 16, 2026

Gross Less-Fees: $1.132 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2); Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama League (4*); Drama Desk (5*); Tonys (4*)

Congratulations to the Joshua Henry, Caissie Levy, Kai Harada, and the entire cast, crew, and production team over at the Beaumont on winning four Tony Awards including Best Revival! Ragtime has quietly announced a final extension as well, and I think these next few months will treat them very kindly at the box office.

Estimated percentage recouped: 50%

➡️Chess- $1.0 million gross, 87% capacity, $107 atp, (Up ~$74k from last week). Began performances October 15, 2025, Closing June 21, 2026.

Gross Less-Fees: $945k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (2*); Tonys (5)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (4)

Chess was another show to increase week on week, a trend I expect to continue the next couple of weeks heading into their closing notice. Two weeks left to see it!

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $578k gross, 81% capacity, $98 atp, (Down ~$17k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $491k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)

Two Strangers dropped a performance, so their gross per show increased solidly which was good. But I think they probably had the most disappointing night at the Tony Awards, failing to pick up any awards. Not great for a show that was already struggling. We'll see what happens from here.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Cats: The Jellicle Ball- $1.0 million gross, 94% capacity, $118 atp, (Down ~$126k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $879k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2*)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (4); Tonys (9*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (3); Tonys (3)

Even without the Best Revival win for Cats, they still might be in an alright spot moving forward, picking up a tidy few awards. Congratulations to Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Qween Jean, and Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons for three very well deserved wins! Cats is an expensive show to run, so they are still ones to keep an eye on, but this is about as close as they've been to having an earning week.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Titanique- $863k gross, 88% capacity, $91 atp, (Up ~$71k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.

Gross Less-Fees: $738k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)

Tough one again for Titanique, even with the increase they are still well below their weekly breakeven. I think they're in a pretty rough spot, I'm not sure how long they will intend to run if they keep losing money like this. I'd prioritize seeing it if you're waiting it out.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $939k gross, 99% capacity, $136 atp, (Down ~$172k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through November 29.

Gross Less-Fees: N/A; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): N/A

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)

Rocky Horror dropped a performance (and in average ticket price slightly), which mostly accounts for this drop. But with a fun Tony performance, and already strong grosses, they may still be ok.

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡The Lost Boys- $1.3 million gross, 94% capacity, $110 atp, (Up ~$101k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $1.164 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2); Tonys (4)

Though Lost Boys did not take home any of the big prizes, four Tony Awards is nothing to sneeze at. Often shows that do not win Best Musical slow down some after the Tony Awards, we'll see if that happens with Lost Boys. I'm not sure it will quite frankly their growth has felt pretty organic, which is great to see. Congratulations to Ali Louis Bourzgui (for the win and also for me the best speech of the night), Shoshana Bean, Dane Laffrey, and Jen Schriever and Michael Arden for their respective wins.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $957k gross, 88% capacity, $117 atp (Down ~$98k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $818k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*); Tonys (4*)

Huge congratulations to Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Cinco Paul, and the cast and creative team at the Nederlander for winning Best Musical! Box office wise, it was the best week so far for Schmigadoon, and a week they will almost certainly be building on moving forward. Great to see it!

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Just announced closing in January, not entirely surprising they've been struggling some. Hearts go out of course to the cast and crew, but this show has had a decent run, and got a pro-shot to boot. Open-ended.

Every Brilliant Thing- Mariska Hargitay may not be Daniel Radcliffe at the box office but well over $1 million in grosses is really very respectable. Love to see it! Limited through August 9.

Death of a Salesman- Selling out SRO at $150 a ticket for a play at the Winter Garden is really astonishing. They really cleaned up on Sunday, glad for the cast and creative team. Limited Through August 9.

Giant- Giant continues to do very well! Limited Through June 28

Dog Day Afternoon- They've continued to slip with the lukewarm responses at awards ceremonies, and these grosses are their worst yet. Hopefully it picks back up soon. Limited Through July 12.

Becky Shaw- Becky Shaw has been building pretty consistently for like two months now, and they're in a really solid spot, love to see it! Limited Through June 14

The Fear of 13- Fear of 13 is still struggling for a star led play. They won't recoup but they'll make it through their run. Limited Through July 12

Proof- Grosses are still ok, but their chances of recoupment are definitely waning. Limited Through July 12

Joe Turner's Come and Gone- Didn't pick up any Tony Awards, but continues to run well. Limited Through July 26

The Balusters- Grosses are picking up, which is good. Limited Through June 21.

Fallen Angels- Fascinating that this show is straight up outgrossing Pirates from last year, but it's really great for all those involved that this is such a success! Proshot coming as well. Limited Through June 7.

Celebrity Autobiography- These are some of the lowest capacity figures I can remember seeing for any show. Limited Through August 9.

I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- a grosses analysis of this season's Tony nominated shows. A full archive of my work can be found here!

Quick housekeeping notice, after well over 100 consecutive weeks of posting grosses analyses on reddit, I will be taking a two week vacation from the grosses reports, the posts that would go up June 16 and June 23.

Discuss below, please remember to keep it kind and civil.

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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 4 months ago
▲ 153 r/Broadway

GROSSES ANALYSES- Week Ending May 31

Source- Broadway Grosses, Broadway Box Office -05/31/2026 (broadwayworld.com)

Grosses stumbled quite a bit this week, for many of the new shows in particular- not good when the margins were already very tight for many of them. Comparisons to last season maybe aren't entirely fair, since this was the equivalent week Memorial Day fell on, but the drops from last spring to this spring have been worrying to say the least, and this week is no different.

Of course, the Tony Awards are this upcoming Sunday, which will absolutely have massive connotations for this season's shows. Lot's to be excited for!

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $863k, 80% capacity, $91 atp (Down ~$122k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $759k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

Gatsby decreased some, they've been in this 800-900 range for a little while now. It's not too bad but I cant imagine this is where they are targeting, it seems the current cast isn't selling quite as well as previous ones. But they have enough of a track record at this point, and typically strong summer grosses, that I suspect they're in a good not great spot overall.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $746k gross, 80% capacity, $119 atp (Down ~$88k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $649k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-(50k)

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

Maybe Happy Ending had likely their first losing week since they won the Tony Award for Best Musical last season. This time of year is often slower for the previous seasons shows, for pretty obvious reasons, so as long as this is a blip more than it is a trend I suspect they will be ok, but they largely followed in the footsteps of the other shows from last year that are still running, almost all of them were down six figures. But they are becoming ones to keep an eye on. Their average ticket price says to me they're still playing the longer game though.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Death Becomes Her- $773k gross, 81% capacity, $80 atp (Down ~$100k from last week). Began performances October 23, 2024, Closing June 28, 2026.

Gross Less-Fees: $673k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2025 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Death Becomes Her continues to move along steadily, although they have not yet hit their closing bump it seems, these attendance figures are still quite low. Hopefully it will all pick up in the coming weeks.

Link to my article discussing Death Becomes Her's closing notice on BroadwayWorld

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $611k gross, 86% capacity, $112 atp (Down ~$112k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $532k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($50k)-$50k

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Mincemeat had one of the steeper drops this week from the shows last year, and likely had a slightly losing week. But in the scheme of things this is not a bad week for them, more than recoverable in the coming months.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $726k gross, 90% capacity, $96 atp (Down ~$118k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $632k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-(100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

Quite tough week for BVSC, this is their lowest grossing week of their run so far, and they had the furthest drop at the box office relative to their peer shows. The production has been pretty clearly trying different tactics of getting audiences to the show, notably the dance-along performances, with some success, so I don't think the show is in imminent danger. But these are low numbers, and they're becoming ones to keep an eye on.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡️Ragtime- $1.3 million gross, 100% capacity, $156 atp, (Up ~$21k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 2, 2026

Gross Less-Fees: $1.149 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2); Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama League (4*); Drama Desk (5*)

Ragtime was one of only a very few shows to increase at the box office week to week, a very good sign as we head towards the Tony Awards. They're shaping up well in their road to recoupment.

Estimated percentage recouped: 50%

➡️Chess- $1.0 million gross, 88% capacity, $99 atp, (Up ~$17k from last week). Began performances October 15, 2025, Closing June 21, 2026.

Gross Less-Fees: $881k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (2*); Tonys (5)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (4)

Chess was another show to increase week on week, a trend I expect to continue the next couple of weeks heading into their closing notice. Three weeks left to see it!

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $595k gross, 76% capacity, $93 atp, (Down ~$57k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $506k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)

Many of the new shows this year had tough weeks at the box office, and Two Strangers is no exception. They've definitely had a stumble in their momentum, but I'll be curious to see what happens on Sunday for them.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Cats: The Jellicle Ball- $907k gross, 91% capacity, $107 atp, (Down ~$126k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $776k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2*)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (4); Tonys (9*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (3)

Tough week for Cats, these are pretty low grosses for a revival in their second month. We'll see what happens on Sunday, I suspect their continued viability may depend on it.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Titanique- $791k gross, 81% capacity, $90 atp, (Down ~$114k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.

Gross Less-Fees: $677k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)

Titanique had a rough one, dropping to well below where they need to be to be making money. Hopefully things can turn around for them soon, I don't know how long they can sustain these grosses.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $1.1 million gross, 99% capacity, $140 atp, (Up ~$90k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through November 29.

Gross Less-Fees: N/A; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): N/A

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)

Rocky Horror had a fantastic week at the box office, they've had a very strong run of late. It was not on my bingo card that they would be outgrossing Cats.

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡The Lost Boys- $1.2 million gross, 90% capacity, $106 atp, (Down ~$31k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $1.077 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2)

At this point I feel confident in saying Lost Boys has the most commercial appeal of any of the new shows this spring, and they are the only one of the new shows I am reasonably confident made a positive return this week- other than maybe Schmigadoon. This level of success with relatively tepid peripherals (below average capacity and ticket price), continues to be very encouraging.

I'm not predicting this in any way, but it's worth noting commercially that a large-scale (in a >1500 seat house) show has not won Best Musical in any way that would result in a post-Tony Awards bump recently, the last example would be Billy Elliot in 2009. Depending on what happens Sunday, Lost Boys could become a very interesting case study with what that looks like in a more modern context.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $858k gross, 85% capacity, $108 atp (Down ~$56k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $789k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*)

Schmigadoon continues to do ok, though I can't imagine they have much in the way of a margin right now. All of the Best Musical nominees being at 90% capacity or less in the run up to the Tony Awards is a pretty bad sign in general.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- The tourists left and so did the grosses for Stranger Things, posting the steepest decline of any show for non Daniel Radcliffe related reasons. Open-ended.

Every Brilliant Thing- Mariska Hargitay may not be Daniel Radcliffe at the box office but well over $1 million in grosses is really very respectable. Love to see it! Limited through August 9.

Death of a Salesman- Most of their increase has to do with adding a performance, but selling out SRO at $150 a ticket for a play at the Winter Garden is really astonishing. Limited Through August 9.

Giant- Giant continues to do very well! Limited Through June 28

Dog Day Afternoon- They've continued to slip with the lukewarm responses at awards ceremonies, and these grosses are their worst yet. Hopefully it picks back up soon. Limited Through July 12.

Becky Shaw- Becky Shaw has been building pretty consistently for like two months now, and they're in a really solid spot, love to see it! Limited Through June 14

The Fear of 13- Fear of 13 is still struggling for a star led play. They won't recoup but they'll make it through their run. Limited Through July 12

Proof- Grosses are still ok, but their chances of recoupment are definitely waning. Limited Through July 12

Joe Turner's Come and Gone- Slipped out of the $1 million club, after a phenomenal response last week. But these numbers are still great for them and I hope it continues! Limited Through July 26

The Balusters- Grosses are picking up, which is good. Limited Through June 21.

Fallen Angels- Fascinating that this show is straight up outgrossing Pirates from last year, but it's really great for all those involved that this is such a success! Proshot coming as well. Limited Through June 7.

Celebrity Autobiography- These are some of the lowest capacity figures I can remember seeing for any show. Limited Through August 9.

I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- a grosses analysis of this season's Tony nominated shows. A full archive of my work can be found here!

Quick housekeeping notice, after well over 100 consecutive weeks of posting grosses analyses on reddit, I will be taking a two week vacation from the grosses reports, the posts that would go up June 16 and June 23.

Discuss below, please remember to keep it kind and civil.

reddit.com
u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 4 months ago

MEMORIAL DAY GROSSES- Week Ending May 24

Source- Broadway Grosses, Broadway Box Office -05/24/2026 (broadwayworld.com)

Grosses a day late due to the holiday weekend and the road conference. But with the Holiday weekend, grosses picked back up to over the $40 million mark, a good sign. Though once again industry wide this is a much more tepid spring than last year. But most of the new musicals and revivals are in relatively good standing at this point. We're two weeks out from Broadway's biggest night, and grosses should continue to increase as we get there.

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $968k, 88% capacity, $94 atp (Up ~$165k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $851k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

In the holiday week Gatsby increased, as they normally do. I don't love that they're under $1 million in what should be a good week for them, but these aren't bad grosses for them recently.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $834k gross, 89% capacity, $120 atp (Down ~$334k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $725k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-(50k)

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

Maybe Happy Ending suffered one of the larger drops week to week, though this was to be expected with the departure of Darren Criss. But if this is where they land and can hold, it's not a bad spot, though I wouldn't want to see them go much lower than this.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Death Becomes Her- $873k gross, 87% capacity, $84 atp (Down ~$180k from last week). Began performances October 23, 2024, Closing June 28, 2026.

Gross Less-Fees: $760k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2025 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Last week's big news, Death Becomes Her has announced their final performance will be on June 28. I break this all down more fully on BroadwayWorld, but long story short it's very much a shame and a shock that a show that did as well as DBH did in its first year fell apart so much in it's second. That said, 600 performances is nothing to be ashamed of and the show has had a good run. Five weeks left to catch it, glad to see the capacity has already begun to tick up.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $723k gross, 97% capacity, $118 atp (Up ~$18k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $629k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($50k)-$50k

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Operation Mincemeat saw a slight, but measurable increase week to week with the holiday. Glad to see it!

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $844k gross, 94% capacity, $107 atp (Down ~$114k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $735k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-(50k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

Buena Vista Social Club dropped back to where they've been hanging out recently, in that mid-800s range. I think that's sustainable for them, though I wouldn't want to see them drop lower.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡️Ragtime- $1.3 million gross, 100% capacity, $154 atp, (Up ~$46k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 2, 2026

Gross Less-Fees: $1.131 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2); Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama League (4*); Drama Desk (5*)

Ragtime continues to excel at the box office, their climb continuing as we head towards the Tonys. Just how high will it go?

Estimated percentage recouped: 50%

➡️Chess- $927k gross, 81% capacity, $106 atp, (Up ~$67k from last week). Began performances October 15, 2025, Closing June 21, 2026.

Gross Less-Fees: $807k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (2*); Tonys (5)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (4)

This week's big news, Chess had been struggling to be fair, but I did not see the closing announcement coming, I thought they would give it an honest shot without Lea Michele. Best wishes of course to the cast and crew, this news was clearly unexpected to people inside the building and outside. Hopefully the remainder of the run is played to full houses, four weeks remaining to catch it.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $653k gross, 83% capacity, $94 atp, (Down ~$22k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $555k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)

Two Strangers finally showed some signs of life at the box office, but these numbers still aren't great. But at least they're making money now, and hopefully as we get closer to the Tonys they can continue to climb.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Cats: The Jellicle Ball- $1.0 million gross, 97% capacity, $115 atp, (Up ~$81k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $884k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2*)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (4); Tonys (9*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (3)

Cats had a better week than last, though depending on how they're accounting for treating all of the Tony Voters to three michelin star lunches, they might not have made money last week on paper. But these grosses are sustainable for them, though would like to see it continue to climb.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Titanique- $906k gross, 94% capacity, $90 atp, (Up ~$46k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.

Gross Less-Fees: $775k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)

Titanique continues to climb week to week, though they are still less than their breakeven according to the Broadway Journal. Glad to see them continue to make progress, hopefully it continue

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $1.0 million gross, 100% capacity, $129 atp, (Up ~$5k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through November 29.

Gross Less-Fees: N/A; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): N/A

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)

Rocky Horror's impressive run continues, holding over that $1 million mark.

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡Beaches- $511k gross, 58% capacity, $68 atp, (Up ~$70k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Closed May 24, 2026

Gross Less-Fees: $437k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (1)

Final week of performances for Beaches, and still not great gross (there was so little lead in from the public, not really a chance for a closing bump). Happy Trails to the cast and crew!

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Lost Boys- $1.3 million gross, 92% capacity, $106 atp, (Up ~$130k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $1.104 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2)

Great increase for Lost Boys this week, probably due some to the holiday weekend but nevertheless, these grosses will absolutely play.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $914k gross, 90% capacity, $110 atp (Up ~$71k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $841k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*)

Schmigadoon has now picked up two of the major theatre awards for Best Musical, setting them up potentially well for the Tonys next month. Grosses wise, they had a nice increase, would like to see them get up to that million mark but these aren't bad grosses by any stretch.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Back up over the $1 million mark, a good week for them. Open-ended.

Every Brilliant Thing- In Daniel Radcliffe's final week they put up over $2 million in gross. I don't think we're going to see the same heights with Mariska Hargitay, but we'll see! Limited through August 9.

Death of a Salesman- Another huge week for them, selling out and total gross over $1.6 million, in a 7 show week no less. Limited Through August 9.

Giant- Second recoupment of the spring! Congratulations to the cast and crew and production team at the Music Box. Limited Through June 28

Dog Day Afternoon- They've continued to slip with the lukewarm responses at awards ceremonies, though they're still in an ok spot week to week. Just unlikely to recoup. Limited Through July 12.

Becky Shaw- Becky Shaw has been building pretty consistently for like two months now, and they're in a really solid spot, love to see it! Limited Through June 14

The Fear of 13- Fear of 13 is still struggling for a star led play. They won't recoup but they'll make it through their run. Limited Through July 12

Proof- First real signs of slippage with the lack of Tony nominations, but still good grosses overall. Limited Through July 12

Joe Turner's Come and Gone- Slipped out of the $1 million club, after a phenomenal response last week. But these numbers are still great for them and I hope it continues! Limited Through July 26

The Balusters- Grosses are picking up, which is good. Limited Through June 21.

Fallen Angels- Fascinating that this show is straight up outgrossing Pirates from last year, but it's really great for all those involved that this is such a success! Proshot coming as well. Limited Through June 7.

Celebrity Autobiography- I'm glad the theatre has a tenant. Limited Through August 9.

I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- a grosses analysis of this season's Tony nominated shows. A full archive of my work can be found here!

Discuss below, please remember to keep it kind and civil.

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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 5 months ago

GROSSES ANALYSIS- Week Ending May 17

Source- Broadway Grosses, Broadway Box Office -05/17/2026 (broadwayworld.com)

Another ok-ish week for Broadway, this week was largely the same compared to last, a good sign given Tom Felton's absence from Cursed Child. But this year continues to be significantly behind the highs of last year, with average ticket price lagging $10 below last years mark, though that metric saw a slight increase from last week. But that said, many of the new shows are still struggling, with a couple notable exceptions. This week is the annual road conference, where many touring presenters come to New York City and (among other things) see all of the new shows, which will have an impact some on these grosses.

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $820k, 76% capacity, $91 atp (Up ~$28k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $721k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

Gatsby showed some signs of improvement but by and large held station from last week, which is not a great sign for the show. But with tourist season on the way, they're likely fine for the most part. Starting to become one's to keep an eye on though.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $1.1 million gross, 95% capacity, $157 atp (Up ~$138k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $1.017 million; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $100k+

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

As expected Maybe Happy Ending put up some very nice grosses to coincide with Darren Criss's final week of performances. They'll be interesting ones moving forward.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Death Becomes Her- $692k gross, 66% capacity, $87 atp (Down ~$70k from last week). Began performances October 23, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $602k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2025 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Of course the big news this week, Death Becomes Her has announced their final performance will be on June 28. First thoughts of course go to the cast and crew of the show. I break this all down more fully on BroadwayWorld, but long story short it's very much a shame and a shock that a show that did as well as DBH did in its first year fell apart so much in it's second. That said, 600 performances is nothing to be ashamed of and the show has had a good run. Hopefully the next six weeks they get to play to full houses.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $705k gross, 92% capacity, $122 atp (Down ~$9k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $613k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($50k)-$50k

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Operation Mincemeat continues to hold around that $700k mark, plenty strong for them at this point.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $959k gross, 97% capacity, $117 atp (Up ~$68k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $834k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-100k

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

BVSC had another really nice rebound back up into the $900s, which is more than enough for them to sustain for a while if they can keep it here, great week for them.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡Just in Time- $890k gross, 102% capacity, $158 atp (Up ~$52k from last week). Began performances March 31, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $774k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $600k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (2)

Just in Time finally announced their recoupment after just over a year of performances on Broadway, and they continue to do well over at the Circle in the Square Theater. This will be my final week covering them on these reports, huge congratulations to the cast and crew and everyone working on the show! Well done all.

Or to put it in lyrics from the show: That's all (buh bah da duh), That's all

Estimated percentage recouped: 100%

➡️Ragtime-* $1.2 million gross, 100% capacity, $149 atp, (Up ~$56k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 2, 20*26

Gross Less-Fees: $1.090 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2); Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama League (4*); Drama Desk (5*)

Ragtime continues it's fantastic run of awards, picking up a basketful of hardware last weekend between the Drama Leagues and the Drama Desks. And their grosses have responded well, getting towards the higher weeks of their initial LCT run.

Estimated percentage recouped: 50%

➡️Chess-* $927k gross, 73% capacity, $109 atp, (Up ~$59k from last week). Began performances October 15, 2025, Open-Ende*d.

Gross Less-Fees: $807k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (2*); Tonys (5)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (4)

Lea Michele was in for the full week this time around, and so Chess had a marginally better week. But likely still a week that's a bit too low for them to call it successful or sustainable, would really like to see them back up over that $1 million mark.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $576k gross, 77% capacity, $89 atp, (Down ~$22k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $509k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)

Two Strangers was unable to capitalize on their momentum from the previous week and slid some, not a great sign for the show. They did manage to win their first major award of the season, for Outstanding Lyrics at the Drama Desks. Hopefully we get national tour news from them soon, that would certainly help in their Tony push.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Cats: The Jellicle Ball- $952k gross, 91% capacity, $112 atp, (Down ~$5k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $807k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($0)-($100k)

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2*)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (4); Tonys (9*)

2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (3)

Cats remains just under their weekly breakeven, their needle did not get moved much. This makes it one of the weaker starts we've seen for a revival, which is potentially troubling given how revivals typically fare, especially if they don't win some major awards at the Tony's.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Titanique- $860k gross, 87% capacity, $92 atp, (Up ~$122k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.

Gross Less-Fees: $736k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)

Titanique posted their best week yet after securing a handful of Tony Nominations, including one for Best Musical. Still below their breakeven, but moving in the right direction. They have also announced a national tour!

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $1.0 million gross, 100% capacity, $128 atp, (Down ~$49k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through November 29.

Gross Less-Fees: N/A; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): N/A

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)

Rocky Horror's impressive run continues, holding over that $1 million mark, even with the decrease.

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡Beaches- $441k gross, 44% capacity, $77 atp, (Down ~$34k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited Through September 6.

Gross Less-Fees: $377k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (1)

If you want to see it, get your tickets sooner rather than later. That capacity number is rough.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Lost Boys- $1.1 million gross, 89% capacity, $98 atp, (Up ~$25k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $993k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2)

The Lost Boys continues their strong run, picking up a pair of technical awards with the Drama Desks. And they have announced both a cast album and a national tour. Both Lost Boys and Schmigadoon are starting to try and increase their average ticket price it seems, both saw increases there and decreases in overall attendance.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $842k gross, 85% capacity, $106 atp (Down ~$1k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $721k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*)

Schmigadoon has now picked up two of the major theatre awards for Best Musical, setting them up potentially well for the Tonys next month. Grosses wise, they mostly held station from last week, increasing their average ticket price while decreasing their attendance.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Whiplash of a week for them, once there are more tourists over the summer I suspect they'll do better. Open-ended.

Every Brilliant Thing- Death, taxes, and Daniel Radcliffe being an insane commercial draw on Broadway- the highest average ticket price of the week. Congratulations to Daniel Radcliffe as well for winning the Outer Critics Circle Award for Best Solo Performance. Great week for them all around, final week to see Daniel Radcliffe! New extension too through the summer, glad to see it! Limited through August 9.

Death of a Salesman- Huge week for them, selling out and total gross over $1.7 million. Limited Through August 9.

Giant- Second recoupment of the spring! Congratulations to the cast and crew and production team at the Music Box. Limited Through June 28

Dog Day Afternoon- They've continued to slip with the lukewarm responses at awards ceremonies, though they're still in an ok spot week to week. Just unlikely to recoup. Limited Through July 12.

Becky Shaw- Becky Shaw has been building pretty consistently for like two months now, and they're in a really solid spot, love to see it! Limited Through June 14

The Fear of 13- Fear of 13 is still struggling for a star led play. They won't recoup but they'll make it through their run. Limited Through July 12

Proof- Grosses continue to be strong in spite of the lack of Tony Nominations. Limited Through July 12

Joe Turner's Come and Gone- $1 million club for them, after a phenomenal response last week, great for them and I hope it continues! Limited Through July 26

The Balusters- Grosses are picking up, which is good. Limited Through June 7..

Fallen Angels- Fascinating that this show is straight up outgrossing Pirates from last year, but it's really great for all those involved that this is such a success! Limited Through June 7.

Celebrity Autographs- I'm glad the theatre has a tenant. Limited Through August 9.

I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- a grosses analysis of this season's Tony nominated shows. A full archive of my work can be found here!

Discuss below, please remember to keep it kind and civil.

reddit.com
u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 5 months ago

POST-TONY NOMINATIONS GROSSES- Week Ending May 10

Source- Broadway Grosses, Broadway Box Office -05/10/2026 (broadwayworld.com)

Tony Nominations came just in the nick of time for many of these shows this year, but luckily they seem to have had a mostly positive impact (with one exception). In general, for many shows this was a stronger week than last, most of the loss week to week has more to do with various celebrities rotating in and out (Whitney Levitt and Megan Thee Stallion departed their respective shows), and also there's a missing 3/4 million from The Book of Mormon, which will remain closed for at least another week, best wishes to all working on that show as well.

➡ Awards Watch- Outer Critics Circle Award Winners were announced yesterday, Drama League Winners are announced on Friday, M1y 15, Drama Desk Winners will be announced on Sunday, May 17, and of course the Tony Awards are on June 7

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $792k, 75% capacity, $89 atp (Down ~$13k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $697k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

Not a great week for Gatsby this time out, they largely held station from last week, which was already low for them. These aren't unrecoverable grosses, but it's not a great sign from the new cast, and these are lower numbers than I would consider sustainable.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $1.0 million gross, 93% capacity, $142 atp (Up ~$148k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $896k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50-$150k

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

Maybe Happy Ending rebounded well back to over $1 million in the stronger overall week for new musicals. This is the final week of Darren Criss in the role of Oliver, so I suspect next week will have very good grosses for them. Beyond that will be very interesting to see.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Death Becomes Her- $762k gross, 71% capacity, $90 atp (Up ~$188k from last week). Began performances October 23, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $663k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2025 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Death Becomes Her rebounded some after missing Michelle Williams for a week. But these numbers are still unsustainably low for this show, and they are the only show from last year that failed to make money last week (by my count). Hopefully they can turn things around soon.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $715k gross, 91% capacity, $124 atp (Up ~$45k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $582k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($50k)-$50k

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Operation Mincemeat jumped back up pretty well, they continue to put up strong year two numbers.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $895k gross, 96% capacity, $110 atp (Up ~$128k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $779k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

BVSC had a fantastic jump back up after a very slow April for them. I would say these are sustainable grosses for them, I hope they can build on this successful week!

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Just in Time- $838k gross, 100% capacity, $150 atp (Up ~$47k from last week). Began performances March 31, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $729k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $600k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (2)

Jeremy Jordan continues to do his thing, the promotional tracks released by the show seem to have been doing the trick pretty well (at least based on my social media). Glad to see it!

Estimated percentage recouped: 80%-100%

➡️Ragtime- $1.2 million gross, 100% capacity, $142 atp, (Up ~$77k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 2, 2026

Gross Less-Fees: $1.040 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2); Outer Critics Circle (5*)

Ragtime had a great week, after putting up the second most Tony Nominations for a musical revival ever, they tied for the most Outer Critics Circle awards with Schmigadoon, including winning Best Musical Revival, though it's important to note they were not competing with Cats: The Jellicle Ball. Still, congratulations to Joshua Henry, Ben Levi Ross, Lear deBessonet, 59 Studio, and the entire cast and crew over at the Beaumont!

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡️Chess- $868k gross, 73% capacity, $102 atp, (Down ~$103k from last week). Began performances October 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $755k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (2*); Tonys (5)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (4)

Chess was absolutely the biggest loser last week at the Tony nominations, failing to secure a Best Musical Revival nod. This week it showed in the grosses (though Lea Michele missing time hurt too), Chess took the largest decrease of any show to open this season. As we head into the final month of Lea Michele, and as they maybe begin a campaign for Bryce Pinkham and Hannah Cruz and Nic Christopher, their fortunes may change, but it's an uphill battle for sure.

Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $598k gross, 80% capacity, $93 atp, (Up ~$92k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $509k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)

Two Strangers had a decent response to the Tony Noms, managing to avoid the intensive care unit, and posting their best capacity number in quite a while. Hopefully they can build on this!

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Cats: The Jellicle Ball- $957k gross, 95% capacity, $108 atp, (Up -$22k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $819k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($0)-($100k)

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desks

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (4); Tonys (9*)

Cats remains just under their weekly breakeven, their needle did not get moved much by award nominations it seems. I suspect that will change shortly, but they had the smallest increase of any Best Musical or Best Revival nominee.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Titanique- $853k gross, 86% capacity, $93 atp, (Up ~$122k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.

Gross Less-Fees: $729k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)

Titanique posted their best week yet after securing a handful of Tony Nominations, including one for Best Musical. Still below their breakeven, but moving in the right direction.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $1.0 million gross, 100% capacity, $134 atp, (Up ~$235k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through November 29.

Gross Less-Fees: N/A; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): N/A

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)

Rocky Horror was one of the surprise winners last week with Tony Nominations, and that was absolutely reflected this week, with them posting the highest increase of any show week to week. First week over $1 million to boot as well, fantastic all around.

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡Beaches- $475k gross, 51% capacity, $72 atp, (Down ~$44k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited Through September 6.

Gross Less-Fees: $406k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (1)

If you want to see it, get your tickets sooner rather than later. A complete shut out at the Tony Noms does not bode well for this show, which is already struggling.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Lost Boys- $1.1 million gross, 94% capacity, $91 atp, (Up ~$131k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $858k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2)

One of the biggest winners at the Tony Nominations, The Lost Boys likely made money last week, and with an average ticket price below $100. Week-to-week profitability with an average ticket price that low would be an excellent sign for the show, especially since they will likely rely on a relatively young fan base to sustain their operations. Lots to like here from Lost Boys.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $843k gross, 91% capacity, $99 atp (Up ~$197k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $721k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)

2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*)

Schmigadoon had a nice week, the other big winner from the Tony nominations. I think they're in a good spot moving forward. They picked up the first of the Best Musical awards, this one from the Outer Critics Circle. Huge congratulations to Christopher Gattelli, Linda Cho, Cinco Paul, Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, as well as the entire cast and crew over at the Nederlander!

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Whiplash of a week for them, once there are more tourists over the summer I suspect they'll do better. Open-ended.

Every Brilliant Thing- Death, taxes, and Daniel Radcliffe being an insane commercial draw on Broadway- the highest average ticket price of the week. Congratulations to Daniel Radcliffe as well for winning the Outer Critics Circle Award for Best Solo Performance. Great week for them all around, two more weeks to see Daniel Radcliffe! Limited through June 28.

Death of a Salesman- One of the biggest hits of the spring, I had my doubts about them filling the Winter Garden but they're doing it. Adding in 9 Tony nominations (including Best Score) will also help, as will their handful of Outer Critics Circle Awards. Limited Through August 9.

Giant- Giant managed a modest increase from last week, and continues to put up strong grosses. Limited Through June 28

Dog Day Afternoon- They've continued to slip with the lukewarm responses at awards ceremonies, though they're still in an ok spot week to week. Just unlikely to recoup. Limited Through July 12.

Becky Shaw- Becky Shaw has been building pretty consistently for like two months now, and they're in a really solid spot, love to see it! Limited Through June 14

The Fear of 13- Fear of 13 is still struggling some for a star led play. Likely not losing money but they're not raking it in either. Limited Through July 12

Proof- Maybe my biggest surprise at the Tony Nominations on the play side, but they're in a good spot gross wise at least still. Limited Through July 12

Joe Turner's Come and Gone- $1 million club for them, after a phenomenal response last week, great for them and I hope it continues! Limited Through July 26

The Balusters- Grosses are picking up, which is good. Limited Through June 7..

Fallen Angels- Fascinating that this show is straight up outgrossing Pirates from last year, but it's really great for all those involved that this is such a success! Limited Through June 7.

I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- a look at touring shows and their impact on currently running shows, and other musings. A full archive of my work can be found here!

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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 5 months ago

Source- Broadway Grosses, Broadway Box Office -05/03/2026 (broadwayworld.com)

Happy Tony Nominations Day! Most shows were down from last week. The first week of May is typically a slower week for Broadway grosses, but with a lot of shows already on the bubble, once again almost every new show lost money this week, and some of the longer running shows had shockers of a week. But Tony Nominations came out today! This is typically the low point in April/May/June for the industry, and it'll be a ramp up from here through the Tony Awards.

Also sending everyone in and working on the Book of Mormon well wishes. Hopefully the production(/insurance) is covering wages through the canceled performances.

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $805k, 78% capacity, $86 atp (Down ~$87k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $709k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($0)-($100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

In the scheme of things Gatsby didn't have the worst week ever. They're about $100k less per week than they were a year ago, which is a little bit low for them, but I suspect as we head towards summer they'll tick back up just fine.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $882k gross, 91% capacity, $125 atp (Down ~$82k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $838k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

This was one of the weakest weeks for Maybe Happy Ending in the past year, but again they'll likely recover just fine. There are only two more weeks of Darren Criss in the role of Oliver, and I will be curious to know if there's any adverse impact from his departure.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Death Becomes Her- $574k gross, 57% capacity, $84 atp (Down ~$221k from last week). Began performances October 23, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $499k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2025 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

These numbers should be setting off every alarm bell in the producers office. In the past six months, Death Becomes Her has dropped nearly $1 million per week at the box office. If things don't change this show could be looking at closing in the next few months, an unthinkable sentence over the winter.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $669k gross, 87% capacity, $122 atp (Down ~$86k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $582k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($50k)-$50k

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Operation Mincemeat was in a stable spot prior to this week, and so they weathered the decrease well, and likely still made money. They continue to do very well.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $767k gross, 91% capacity, $100 atp (Down ~$72k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $668k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

BVSC slipped some, these are probably lower than sustainable grosses for them. Since they hit their one year mark they've basically been doing mid 800s, and even with this slip they're still in an alright spot.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Just in Time- $790k gross, 96% capacity, $150 atp (Down ~$89k from last week). Began performances March 31, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $687k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $600k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (2)

Jeremy Jordan is selling plenty of tickets at a good ticket price. The production is clearly going all in on him and Isa Briones, releasing several singles on streaming platforms from the show. Love to see it.

Estimated percentage recouped: 80%-100%

➡️Ragtime- $1.1 million gross, 99% capacity, $133 atp, (Down ~$53k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 2, 2026

Gross Less-Fees: $973k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*); Drama Desk (8*); Tonys (11*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2)

Once again only new musical production of this season that by my math that didn't lose money last week. Ragtime is the second most nominated musical revival in Tony Awards history with their 11, one behind the 2000 production of Kiss Me, Kate. They also announced a National Tour for the 2027/2028 season, which will help in their Tony push. Massive congratulations to everyone working on the show!

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡️Chess- $972k gross, 75% capacity, $112 atp, (Down ~$55k from last week). Began performances October 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $845k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (2*); Tonys (5)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (4)

Chess had a tepid week all around. No Lea Michele nomination was something of a surprise to me, but I'm glad Nic Christopher and Bryce Pinkham and Hannah Cruz are getting their moment. They're ones to watch moving forward, with no Best Revival, and only one big ticket nomination, I don't see their fortunes massively improving in the next few weeks, outside of the bump from Lea Michele's final performances in June.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $506k gross, 69% capacity, $88 atp, (Down ~$32k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $430k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)

Not a great week gross wise for Two Strangers, but a decent one with the awards. 8 Tony nominations for a two-hander is phenomenal, and I think they'll pick up some in the next few weeks.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Cats: The Jellicle Ball- $935k gross, 94% capacity, $107 atp, (Down -$75k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $800k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($0)-($100k)

*2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desks

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (4); Tonys (9*)

Cats slipped a bit, and so are likely still just under their weekly breakeven. But a warm response at the Tony nominations will likely help that in the coming weeks. I'll be curious if they try and announce a tour to counter Ragtime...

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Titanique- $730k gross, 79% capacity, $86 atp, (Down ~$60k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through September 20.

Gross Less-Fees: $624k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Drama Desk (1); Tonys (4*)

Titanique continues remain under their breakeven by nearly $200k. But there have been promising commercial signs the last few weeks. A Best Musical nomination today also definitely helps. And they've announced an extension!

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $830k gross, 100% capacity, $105 atp, (Up ~$16k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through November 29.

Gross Less-Fees: N/A; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): N/A

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)

Rocky Horror was maybe the surprise winner with nominations today, equaling Cats: The Jellicle Ball's total. And they continue to do well at the box office, recently extending through the end of November. I suspect the fall will be very kind to them if nothing else.

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡Beaches- $520k gross, 48% capacity, $84 atp, (Up ~$43k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited Through September 6.

Gross Less-Fees: $445k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (1)

Beaches had one of their better weeks gross wise, though I feel for the cast, playing to less than half full houses on average. If you want to see it, get your tickets now, I don't think you have very long.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Lost Boys- $1.0 million gross, 85% capacity, $90 atp, (Up ~$106k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $858k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)

First week over the $1 million mark for The Lost Boys, and they tied Schmigadoon for the most nominations of the year with 12. Nomination count doesn't always mean anything, but certainly promising signs moving forward for them.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $646k gross, 75% capacity, $92 atp (Up ~$24k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $552k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)

Not a great week for Schmigadoon gross wise, I suspect they need to be putting up numbers closer to eight or nine hundred a week in order to be making money. But tying Lost Boys for the most nominations of the year, as well as being the only show other than Two Strangers to score a Best Musical nomination with all of the four major award groups, will certainly help.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Whiplash of a week for them, once there are more tourists over the summer I suspect they'll do better. Open-ended.

Every Brilliant Thing- Death, taxes, and Daniel Radcliffe being an insane commercial draw on Broadway- the highest average ticket price of the week. Great week for them! Limited through June 28.

Death of a Salesman- One of the biggest hits of the spring, I had my doubts about them filling the Winter Garden but they're doing it. Adding in 9 Tony nominations (including Best Score) will also help. Limited Through August 9.

Giant- Giant managed a modest increase from last week, and continues to put up strong grosses. Limited Through June 28

Dog Day Afternoon- They've started to slip some, though holding over $1 million is certainly a good sign. Limited Through July 12.

Becky Shaw- Nice jump up for Becky Shaw, ticket price is still low but it's a season show for 2nd stage, and capacity is solid at least. Limited Through June 14

The Fear of 13- Fear of 13 is still struggling some for a star led play. Likely not losing money but they're not raking it in either. Limited Through July 12

Proof- Continues its strong run up to this point, just under the $1 million mark. Limited Through July 12

Joe Turner's Come and Gone- The other big surprise of the morning, the Tony nominating committee loved Joe Turner's Come and Gone. Hopefully they continue this run of success! Limited Through July 26

The Balusters- MTC shows usually start slow, and this is no exception. Limited Through June 7..

Fallen Angels- Continues to do really well for a play at the Haimes. Limited Through June 7.

I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- a look at touring shows and their impact on currently running shows, and other musings. A full archive of my work can be found here!

Discuss below, please remember to keep it kind and civil.

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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 5 months ago

Source- Broadway Grosses, Broadway Box Office -04/26/2026 (broadwayworld.com)

Ok week for most shows this week, the increases this week made decent inroads on the drop from last week, though many shows are still on the lower side for where they want to be, and in particular new work continues to struggle. Awards season continues to heat up, with the Drama Desk nominations being announced tomorrow, and of course the Tony nominations being announced next Tuesday.

For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.

Grosses (chronological order from opening)-

➡ The Great Gatsby - $893k, 88% capacity, $86 atp (Up ~$41k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $786k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($0)-($100k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)

Better week than last for Gatsby but still lower grosses than what I would consider safe for them. But that said, these are decent grosses in relation to their peers.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Maybe Happy Ending- $964k gross, 91% capacity, $137 atp (Up ~$30k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended

Gross Less-Fees: $838k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)

Maybe Happy Ending jumped back up some after posting some of their lowest grosses in the past year last week. I think it will be interesting to see how they do once Darren Criss departs in a few weeks.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Death Becomes Her- $795k gross, 72% capacity, $92 atp (Up ~$45k from last week). Began performances October 23, 2024, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $692k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2025 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Death Becomes Her's struggles this spring continue, even with the increase these are likely unsustainable grosses for them. Hopefully the production can turn things around soon.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Operation Mincemeat- $756k gross, 96% capacity, $125 atp (Up ~$46k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $657k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-$100k

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)

Mincemeat continues to age very gracefully in its second year. They are back to their $125 average ticket price target, having hit that now at least the past two weeks, and improving capacity in the meanwhile.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Buena Vista Social Club- $839k gross, 94% capacity, $107 atp (Up ~$17k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $730k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)

2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)

BVSC had a solid increase this week, I hope the dance along productions continue to be a success for them that's a fun idea and concept.

Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%

➡Just in Time- $880k gross, 99% capacity, $161 atp (Up ~$47k from last week). Began performances March 31, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $765k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $600k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (2)

Jeremy Jordan clocks in with solid grosses in his first week, just ahead of what Matthew Morrison was pulling. Houses are full, and ticket prices are as strong as ever.

Estimated percentage recouped: 80%-100%

➡️Ragtime-* $1.1 million gross, 100% capacity, $139 atp, (Up ~$19k from last week), Began performances September 26, Limited Through August 2, 20*26

Gross Less-Fees: $1.019 million; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-$100k

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (5*); Outer Critics Circle (6*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (2)

Once again only new musical production of this season that by my math that didn't lose money last week, and they had a solid increase to boot. They're already getting a warm response from awards nominating committees, especially for the cast (it's pretty rare that shows get more than four Drama League nominations, and they got 5 without Caissie Levy).

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡️Chess-* $1.0 million gross, 77% capacity, $115 atp, (Up ~$21k from last week). Began performances October 15, 2025, Open-Ende*d.

Gross Less-Fees: $893k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (2*)

2026 Award Wins: Broadway Ensemble (4)

Chess dropped their average ticket price target this week it seems, and they managed to fill the house more than they were managing previously, but these are still pretty low grosses for them. They're ones to watch, especially as awards season heats up.

Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%

➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $539k gross, 72% capacity, $90 atp, (Up ~$10k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $458k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*)

Two Strangers has been hovering around this mark for almost a month now with very little deviation. I suspect they'll start showing more signs of life soon, but these grosses are honestly too low to be considered sustainable, even with the small scale of the show.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Cats: The Jellicle Ball- $1.0 million, 96% capacity, $113 atp, (Up -$707 from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $864k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($0)-($100k)

2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2*)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*); Outer Critics Circle (1)

Cats had a very slight increase from last week, so a move in the right direction, though as I understand it they are right around/slightly below their weekly breakeven. But they don't have far to go, and once nominations they're actually eligible for come out I think they'll have a good response.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Titanique- $790k gross, 86% capacity, $85 atp, (Up ~$38k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited through July 12.

Gross Less-Fees: $676k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $900k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (3*);

Titanique continues to climb steadily towards their breakeven, though they remain under it by nearly $200k. But these have been promising commercial signs the last two weeks.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Rocky Horror Show- $813k gross, 100% capacity, $103 atp, (Up ~$86k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through June 21.

Gross Less-Fees: N/A; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): N/A

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*)

Rocky Horror had another really solid week, as many revivals often do early on. We'll see how it holds up but their strong start continues.

Estimated percentage recouped: N/A

➡Beaches- $476k gross, 64% capacity, $57 atp, (Up ~$3k from last week), Began Performances March 18, 2026, Limited Through September 6.

Gross Less-Fees: $408k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (1)

Even amongst a crop of shows that are struggling, Beaches stands above the rest, these capacity figures and average ticket prices are unsustainable for a show of almost any size, let alone a full scale musical, I'm sorry to say. If you want to see it, you should plan to do so as soon as possible. Reviews aren't going to do much to positively influence this shows grosses.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡The Lost Boys- $897k gross, 90% capacity, $75 atp, (Down ~$61k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $767k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*)

Lost Boys had an ok week, given that it was their opening week, so lots of press comps and opening night comp tickets in here, and capacity has remained strong. Next week the rubber meets the road a bit, and they'll be ones to watch moving forward.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡Schmigadoon- $621k gross, 85% capacity, $79 atp (Down ~$9k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.

Gross Less-Fees: $504k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): ($100k+)

2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*)

For an opening week Schmigadoon did ok, given that one performance was almost entirely free. These are likely unsustainable grosses from them though, so hopefully in the coming weeks they start to pick things up.

Estimated percentage recouped: 0%

➡️Play Roundup:

Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Back up over $1 million after dipping down last week. I think this summer tourist will be very telling for the future of this show. Open-ended.

Every Brilliant Thing- Death, taxes, and Daniel Radcliffe being an insane commercial draw on Broadway. Great week for them! Limited through June 28.

Death of a Salesman- One of the biggest hits of the spring, I had my doubts about them filling the Winter Garden but they're doing it. Limited Through August 9.

Giant- Giant managed a modest increase from last week, and continues to put up strong grosses. Limited Through June 28

Dog Day Afternoon- They've started to slip some, though holding over $1 million is certainly a good sign. Limited Through July 12.

Becky Shaw- Nice jump up for Becky Shaw, ticket price is still low but it's a season show for 2nd stage, and capacity is solid at least. Limited Through June 14

The Fear of 13- Fear of 13 is still struggling some for a star led play. Likely not losing money but they're not raking it in either. Limited Through July 12

Proof- Continues its strong run up to this point, just under the $1 million mark. Limited Through July 12

Joe Turner's Come and Gone- Opening week which likely accounts for the majority of the dip here. Decent slate of reviews though, hopefully that translates into good grosses for them moving forward! Limited Through July 26

The Balusters- MTC shows usually start slow, and this is no exception. Limited Through May 24.

Fallen Angels- Continues to do really well for a play at the Haimes. Limited Through June 7.

I'm a contributor for Broadway World now! My most recent article can be found here- a look at touring shows and their impact on currently running shows, and other musings. A full archive of my work can be found here!

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u/Boring_Waltz_9545 — 6 months ago