
GROSSES ANALYSIS- Week Ending October 4
Broadway had a decent rebound week from the catastophe that was last week (weather definitely playing a role here). Some of this as well is shows opening up for the fall season, a trend that will continue. The longer running shows did show some positive signs, though not as much as prior years and many did not show positive enough signs to be in a "healthy" spot. Total gross is down 12% compared to this week last year, with one additional show open. That ain't good. But next week is a holiday weekend so grosses are set to improve short term.
Season-to-date difference from last year:
Gross Gross: -7.5%
Total Attendance: -2.2%
For Award Wins/Nominations, a * demarcates a best musical/best revival nomination/win.
Grosses (chronological order from opening)-
➡ The Great Gatsby - $884k, 80% capacity, $93 atp (Up ~$43k from last week). Began performances March 29, 2024, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $778k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $850k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-$(100k)
2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2), Drama Desk (1), Tony (1)
Moderate increase for Gatsby. Their big news this week was putting tickets on sale through June of next year. Whether that's functionally an extension or a temperature check on demand for a fourth year on Broadway I don't know. Week to week they're at best breaking even.
Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%
➡Maybe Happy Ending- $675k gross, 79% capacity, $110 atp (Down ~$5k from last week). Began performances October 16, 2024, Open-Ended
Gross Less-Fees: $588k; Weekly Operating Cost: $765k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)
2025 Award Wins: New York Drama Critics (1*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama League (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tony (6*)
Maybe Happy Ending's first stunt cast comes in the form of Stella Cole taking of the role of Gil starting in a couple of weeks. It's a short stunt cast with not a whole lot of lead in time (much less than say, Jose Iglesias in BVSC), so we'll see how it all goes. I suspect however that it will be a referendum on demand for more stunt casts moving forward. Hopefully it works, it's becoming clear that they need something more than the status quo- this was another tough week, not good to be down even further this week.
Estimated percentage recouped: 30%-50%
➡Operation Mincemeat- $719k gross, 90% capacity, $125 atp (Up ~$49k from last week). Began performances February 15, 2025, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $626k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $560k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)
2025 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1); Tony (1)
Mincemeat rebounded quite nicely and had a good week. They've also recently announced a couple of extensions, now through next April. They're doing fabulously for a show in their position, no two ways about it.
Estimated percentage recouped: 10%-30%
➡Buena Vista Social Club- $811k gross, 94% capacity, $102 atp (Up ~$7k from last week). Began performances February 21, 2025, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $699k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $700k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)
2024 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (1); Drama Desk (1)
2025 Award Wins: Chita Rivera (2); Tonys (5); Grammy (1)
Slight increase for Buena Vista but not much. This was initially set to be the final week of Jose Iglesias in the show, though he has now extended through November, and will be joined by Gina Torres starting next week. They've got a revolving door of planned stunt casts, and I really hope it works for them, early returns are promising.
Estimated percentage recouped: 20%-40%
➡Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- $503k gross, 65% capacity, $93 atp, (Up ~$27k from last week). Began Performances November 1, 2025, Closing November 29, 2026
Gross Less-Fees: $428k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $480k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (4*); Drama Desk (3*); Tonys (8*)
2026 Award Wins: Drama Desk (1)
Better week for Two Strangers than last, though they're still not making money week to week in all likelihood. Hopefully grosses and capacity start to tick up heading into its final weeks on Broadway.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%
➡The Rocky Horror Show- $774k gross, 92% capacity, $105 atp, (Up ~$75k from last week), Began Performances March 26, 2026, Limited Through February 28, 2027.
Gross Less-Fees: $598k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0k-($100k)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (2*); Drama Desk (6*); Tonys (9*)
Better week for Rocky Horror. If there's ever a month for them to do well it's this one. Really it was entirely a capacity jump the average ticket price is identical to last week.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%-20%
➡The Lost Boys- $1.1 million gross, 89% capacity, $104 atp, (Up ~$47k from last week), Began Performances March 27, 2026, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $940k ; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $950k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $0-($100k)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (4*); Outer Critics Circle (11*); Drama Desk (5); Tonys (12*)
2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (2); Drama Desk (2); Tonys (4)
Even though it's a better week than last for Lost Boys, these are still fairly low grosses for them. I suspect during the holiday weekend however they're going to have a GREAT week.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%
➡Schmigadoon- $969k gross, 95% capacity, $111 atp (Up ~$97k from last week), Began Performances April 4, 2026, Open-Ended.
Gross Less-Fees: $829k; Estimated Weekly Operating Cost: $750k/week; Estimated Profit (Loss): $50k-($50k)
2026 Award Nominations: Drama League (2*); Outer Critics Circle (8*); Drama Desk (4*); Tony (12*)
2026 Award Wins: Outer Critics Circle (5*); Drama Desks (2*); Tonys (4*)
Better week for Schmigadoon as expected, though these are still low for a Best Musical winner. I'll be curious to see what kind of increase they see next week in a more touristy week.
Estimated percentage recouped: 0%
➡Play Roundup:
Stranger Things: The First Shadow- Woof, hopefully these grosses pick up as we get closer to the holidays.. Closing January 3, 2027
Paranormal Activity- Word of mouth is clearly building here, they've been steadily increasing for a while now. Limited Through January 3, 2027.
School Girls; Or, The African Mean Girls Play- Great slate of reviews for them, and some really strong sales. Limited Through November 15
Imaginary Invalid- These grosses aren't phenomenal or anything but they're not bad. Limited Through November 22
Other Desert Cities- Yet another celebrity filled play revival at the Hudson is putting eye watering numbers. These numbers are very good, as would be expected. Limited Through January 17
860- Pretty good first week, Billy Crystal can still be a draw it seems. Can't imagine this is a terribly expensive show to run either. Limited Through January 3, 2027
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