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Due to reduced natural gas supplies, Saudi Arabia anticipates increased use of imported fuel oil for electricity generation this summer, according to analysts. The drop in natural gas stems from the closure of oilfields after the Iran war, which curtailed the nation’s oil exports.

The rise in fuel oil consumption in power plants, coinciding with peak summer electricity demand for cooling, represents a setback to Saudi Arabia’s efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources.

The world’s leading oil exporter has been compelled to halt over 3 million barrels per day of oil production following an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted crude exports from Ras Tanura. This disruption has subsequently reduced the associated gas output.

Despite the commissioning of the Jafurah gas field in December, gas production decreased to 10.5 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter, down from 10.7 bcfd in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Saudi Aramco’s recent quarterly earnings report.

To compensate for the gas shortfall at power plants, Aramco boosted its fuel oil imports to roughly 1.7 million tons (360,000 bpd) in April, an 86% year-over-year increase, according to Vortexa data. The majority of these imports were delivered to terminals linked to power and desalination plants, including Jeddah South and Shuqaiq Steam.

Rahul Choudhary, vice president of oil & gas research at Rystad Energy, stated that the substantial surge in fuel oil imports indicates a rise in oil consumption compared to last year.

Saudi Arabia’s power demand typically escalates from April, reaching its peak in August, thereby increasing the use of crude, high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), and gas in power plants. Choudhary noted that the burning of crude and fuel oil for power could exceed 1 million barrels per day this summer. This would undermine efforts to increase gas and renewable energy use, reversing the low of 991,000 bpd observed in 2025.

Aramco is expected to burn less crude for power this summer, as it prioritizes crude exports, primarily Arab Light, via the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and due to HSFO’s lower cost compared to Saudi crude.

Last year, Saudi Arabia’s direct crude burn averaged 593,500 barrels per day from June to September, according to data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI).

Analysts hold differing views on the precise amount of crude Saudi Arabia will use for power generation this summer.

Wood Mackenzie anticipates a decrease of 5,000 to 15,000 bpd in crude burn from an average of 629,000 bpd between June and August 2025.

Jayadev D, an oil research analyst at WoodMac, said that every barrel of Arab Light crude used domestically results in a significant loss of export revenue.

Rystad Energy estimates that crude consumption for power will average approximately 540,000 to 550,000 bpd this summer.

Koen Wessels, head of demand at Energy Aspects, expects Saudi Arabia to burn more crude this summer than in 2025, constrained by how much crude supply it can divert to Red Sea ports. Energy Aspects forecasts that Hormuz transits will remain disrupted through the end of May, with a 50% recovery on pre-war tonnage in June, 60% in July, and 70% in August, Wessels said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Monday a 30-day extension to a sanctions waiver, permitting the purchase of Russian seaborne oil. This decision, aimed at assisting energy-vulnerable nations impacted by the conflict with Iran, contradicts prior plans to halt such extensions.

Bessent stated on X that the Treasury issued the general license following the previous waiver’s expiration on Saturday. He explained this would temporarily permit access to Russian oil and petroleum products stuck on tankers without breaching U.S. sanctions against Russian oil companies.

A source informed that the extension was requested by impoverished countries unable to obtain Gulf oil shipments due to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bessent noted this extension would offer added flexibility, and specific licenses would be provided as necessary. He added that the general license aimed to stabilize the crude market and ensure oil reached the most energy-vulnerable nations.

Despite previously stating no further extensions would be granted, Bessent argued on Monday that the measure would reroute existing supplies to countries in need, enabling them to compete with China for previously sanctioned oil. This is the second time the Treasury has allowed the waiver to lapse and then extended it.

Two Democratic senators, Jeanne Shaheen and Elizabeth Warren, criticized the move as a detrimental benefit to Russian President Vladimir Putin. They asserted that the relief provided by U.S. sanctions was not lowering domestic gasoline prices or stabilizing global energy markets, and that the revenue would help fund the war in Ukraine.

The Trump administration sanctioned Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil last year to pressure Russia to end its war in Ukraine by limiting oil revenue. However, after the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran caused global oil prices to rise, the Treasury issued the initial temporary license in March to alleviate oil supply shortages. The waivers do not apply to oil currently being pumped by Russia.

Analysts suggest the short-term waivers may help individual countries relying on Gulf oil supplies, but will do little to reduce U.S. gasoline prices. Stephanie Connor, a former policy director at the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, noted the impact on U.S. gasoline prices is unclear, and that British and European sanctions on Russian oil purchases remain.

The license, similar to the previous one, permits the purchase of Russian crude and petroleum products loaded on vessels by April 17, restricting the volume of sales and excluding more recently loaded Russian oil. Charles Lichfield of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center said the waivers would increase Russia’s oil revenues while offsetting the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.

On Monday, Brent oil futures prices increased, closing above $112 per barrel due to supply concerns. Earlier, crude prices decreased following a report that the U.S. might temporarily lift sanctions on Iranian oil during peace talks, but that report was later refuted. Trump later mentioned he paused a planned attack on Iran to allow negotiations.

Hengli Petrochemical International, the Singapore-based trading arm of sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, intends to shut down, according to four industry sources who spoke on Monday. Three sources indicated that the wind-down is expected to be completed by the end of May.

Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian), which is based in China, did not immediately provide a response to an emailed request for comment. Before its parent company was subject to U.S. sanctions, Hengli Petrochemical International employed roughly 100 people and primarily traded oil and petrochemical derivatives, according to two sources.

Some staff members have been informed of redundancies, while others are scheduled to be transferred to other segments of the Hengli group that are not under U.S. sanctions, according to some of the sources.

The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions last month on Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery for suspected purchases of Iranian oil, which Hengli has disputed. Following the U.S. sanctions, Hengli Group restructured the Singapore unit’s ownership, decreasing Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery’s stake from 100% to 5%, with Dalian Changxing International Trade, taking over the remaining 95%.

Oil supplies are poised to tighten further in the coming weeks, even if a peace agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran. Resuming oil shipments from the Middle East Gulf and delivering them to global refiners will take weeks, forcing oil companies to continue drawing down storage tanks to satisfy peak summer demand.

Temporary measures, such as commercial stockpiles, oil in transit, storage at sea, and emergency reserves, have cushioned the world from the Middle East conflict’s impact. However, the full impact on markets and the global economy has yet to be realized, as Middle East production and exports will take months to return to pre-war levels, according to energy company executives, investment banks, and market analysts.

The swift depletion of commercial stockpiles and emergency reserves is occurring during a period when stockpiles typically increase, as refiners and retailers prepare for peak demand during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. The global energy system will soon face peak demand while already weakened, making it difficult to cope with the surge in consumption from summer driving, aviation, farming, and freight.

This situation will stress the global energy system, prolonging the time needed for oil producers and refiners to alleviate supply shortages and for high fuel prices to return to pre-war levels, analysts and executives predict.

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne stated last week that even if the conflict ends in May, the world will exit with significantly depleted inventories. He estimates that global hydrocarbon stock draws of 10 to 13 million barrels per day have already consumed at least 500 million barrels from stockpiles. The U.S. has approximately 460 million barrels in crude inventories for comparison. Equinor CEO Anders Opedal stated Wednesday that it would take at least six months for the market to normalize, even with peace in the Middle East.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said prices would drop quickly after the conflict ends. Progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks led to a 7.8% drop in benchmark Brent crude futures on Wednesday, to $101.27 a barrel. While oil futures may decline quickly with a deal, physical crude and gasoline prices will take time to fall to pre-war levels as supplies recover from a significant disruption. Analysts have steadily increased their forecasts this year, with a Reuters poll last week predicting Brent futures to average $86.38 a barrel this year, up from around $62 a barrel in January.

Demand is likely to increase once the conflict ends, as countries and companies worldwide seek to rebuild stockpiles and restart production facilities. Some countries that have experienced shortages will start building new stockpiles. Australia, which imports roughly 80% of its fuel and has faced shortages, announced plans to spend $7.22 billion to build up fuel reserves. The European Commission said last month it would consider reviewing the EU’s requirement for countries to hold at least 90 days of oil stocks, to include a specific jet fuel requirement.

Since late February, when the war began, stockpiles have fallen rapidly. Global inventories are expected to drop to around 98 days of demand by the end of May, from 101 days currently and 105 days at the end of February, according to Goldman Sachs, which warned that refined product buffers are “approaching very low levels fast.”

Rystad Energy estimates the world has lost around 600 million barrels of oil supply. By the time supply returns to normal, assuming shipping normalization starts at the end of May, the world will have lost 1.2 billion to 2.0 billion barrels of supply, equivalent to 16-27% of pre-war global inventories, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy.

Global gas supplies have also been severely impacted by the closure of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and war-related damage. The loss of supply will total between 30 million and 50 million tonnes of LNG, representing 7%-11% of annual global supply, Galimberti said.

Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods stated in an analyst call last week that the market has not yet felt the full impact of the unprecedented disruption in the world supply of oil and natural gas. Morgan Stanley predicts that U.S. gasoline inventories would fall to around 198 million barrels by late summer, the lowest level for that time of year in modern records. U.S. gasoline stocks were just under 220 million barrels on May 1, the lowest for this time of year since 2014, according to government data. The drawdown has been accelerated by rising exports to meet demand from countries experiencing shortages.

The International Energy Agency has warned that Europe could face jet fuel shortages as early as June if Middle East supplies are not fully replaced. Ireland had only 10 days of stock cover for jet fuel supplies, according to a Goldman Sachs note published last week. In Asia, crude imports fell 30% in April from the previous year, reaching the lowest level since 2015, highlighting the extent of supply disruption in the world’s largest oil-consuming region. Onshore fuel oil inventories in Singapore, a major bunker hub, fell to a near one-year low in the week to April 29, as both imports and exports declined, data showed last week.

Even if supply routes reopen, the global energy system will not recover quickly, executives and analysts say. Woods stated that it would take one to two months for oil flows to normalize after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, as shipping backlogs clear. Ships take an average of 30 days to travel from the Middle East to the European Union and 40 days to the U.S. Willie Walsh, the head of the International Air Transport Association, said the disruption to refining capacity in the Middle East, with nearly two million bpd of refining capacity offline in the region, will hinder supply recovery. Fuel from the Middle East is critical for meeting demand in Africa, Asia, and Europe.

A liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker, operated by the UAE’s ADNOC, has reportedly traversed the Strait of Hormuz and is now near India, based on Monday’s ship-tracking data. If verified, this would mark the initial transit by a loaded LNG tanker through the strait since the start of the Iran conflict on February 28. ADNOC has not yet addressed a request for comment from Reuters.

The 136,357-cubic-meter tanker, under the management of Adnoc Logistics & Services and last documented in the Gulf on March 30, has been detected off India’s west coast. This suggests it successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz after a period of lost signal, according to information from ICIS LNG Edge, Marine Traffic, and LSEG.

Vessels operating in the Gulf region have employed avoidance strategies, including ceasing location transmissions or using fabricated identification numbers, to prevent potential targeting or detention, according to the ship-tracking data.

“We have not yet received official verification of the ship’s location. While there are instances of unreliable signal data, or ships falsifying their positions or using other vessels’ identification numbers, the observed position does not immediately indicate these issues,” explained Alex Froley, a senior LNG analyst at ICIS, a data intelligence company.

Froley further noted, “If the tanker did cross, it would be a positive development for the gas market, although a premature one. A single crossing doesn’t ensure others will follow, as the circumstances have been in constant flux.” In April, several Qatari tankers attempted twice to cross the strait but were unsuccessful. Earlier this month, an empty Omani LNG tanker successfully made the transit.