u/BottleInevitable7278
This will certainly push the next trading days or trading weeks on the Kospi market that a big Sovereign Fund is buying which means because of correlation positive flow side for SNDK shareholders.
And if there is still any stronger positive correlation to Kospi markets, it means more upside to come for SanDisk shareholders because of Singapore Funds are buying massively.
U.S. memory stocks rose in overnight trading ahead of Wednesday's session after reports that Singapore's sovereign wealth fund Temasek is planning to invest in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix triggered a rally in South Korean stocks.
The proposed investment, which would mark the state fund's first-ever investment in the region, is yet another bullish signal for the semiconductor industry and suggests top investors believe chip stocks still have room to run higher.
1. How large is Temasek's AUM?
Temasek's assets under management (specifically its net portfolio value) stand at approximately 518 billion Singapore Dollars (SGD) (which is roughly equivalent to 350 to 360 billion Euros / 380 to 400 billion USD). The fund has roughly doubled in size over the past decade.
2. How much is planned to be purchased?
The exact investment amount and planned purchase volume have not been publicly disclosed by Temasek or the involved South Korean entities yet.
However, the strategic framework is known:
- This marks Temasek's very first direct investment in the South Korean stock market.
- The move is part of a broader strategy to significantly expand AI-related investments within the state fund's portfolio over the coming years (increasing from around 6% currently up to 15%).
- The execution will be handled directly by Temasek’s internal team, and they are in discussions with the South Korean government regarding the timeline.
Latest update on FinTel source around 92% of SanDisk held be Institutions. What does it mean ?
The stock is moved by big money, primarily institutions. Anyone who wanted to sell would have sold last month, and I'm sure many did. Those that held were waiting for earnings and Inv.Day. Now that earnings and ID have passed, there don't seem to be any big sellers. It appears that most big money wants to hold for another year or 2 or 3 or 4. In fact, there are some that actually want to add to their long term holdings, or start new positions. But wait .. institutions already own 92% of the float (source: Fintel). And Sandisk is buying back roughly 5-6% of the float (based on 15 billion at a price of 1650/share. So where will stock come from for new buyers? Simple economics: supply and demand. Price will increase until some big money is willing to sell. In other words, this stock is going a LOT higher. Retail pumps and shorts are totally irrelevant here. Only big money matters in this arena.
Latest update on FinTel source around 92% of SanDisk held be Institutions. What does it mean ?
The stock is moved by big money, primarily institutions. Anyone who wanted to sell would have sold last month, and I'm sure many did. Those that held were waiting for earnings and Inv.Day. Now that earnings and ID have passed, there don't seem to be any big sellers. It appears that most big money wants to hold for another year or 2 or 3 or 4. In fact, there are some that actually want to add to their long term holdings, or start new positions. But wait .. institutions already own 92% of the float (source: Fintel). And Sandisk is buying back roughly 5-6% of the float (based on 15 billion at a price of 1650/share). So where will stock come from for new buyers? Simple economics: supply and demand. Price will increase until some big money is willing to sell. In other words, this stock is going a LOT higher. Retail pumps and shorts are totally irrelevant here. Only big money matters in this arena.
Cantor Fitzgerald's CJ Muse on his Sandisk $2,900 price target
cnbc.comSanDisk Nand price should be at least +180% up over the next 12 months as minimum. Based on the Elasticity function to solve Demand & Supply
### 1. Core Concept: Market Equilibrium
Prices in a market change whenever there is a mismatch between what buyers want (**Demand**) and what sellers can provide (**Supply**).
Normally, when demand outpaces supply, the price rises. This price increase does two things to restore equilibrium:
* It encourages suppliers to produce a bit more.
* It discourages some buyers, causing demand to fall back down.
How drastically demand drops when prices rise is measured by the **Price Elasticity of Demand (e)**:
> **Formula:** `Elasticity (e) = % Change in Quantity Demanded / % Change in Price`
---
### Scenario A: Elasticity = 0 (Perfectly Inelastic)
**What it means intuitively:**
An elasticity of `0` means buyers are completely insensitive to price changes. No matter how high the price goes, buyers will attempt to purchase the exact same quantity (e.g., life-saving medications like insulin).
**The Problem:**
* **Demand Increase:** +200%
* **Supply Increase:** +20%
* **Net Shortage (Unmet Demand):** +180%
To restore balance, price must rise enough to erase that 180% excess demand.
Using the formula: `% Change in Quantity = e * % Change in Price`
Since `e = 0`:
> `% Change in Quantity = 0 * % Change in Price = 0%`
No matter how high the price goes, demand **never** drops.
**Mathematical Result: Infinity (∞)**
Because demand never falls, the demand curve is a vertical line. It will never intersect the new supply curve at a finite price point.
> `% Price Change = Net Demand Shift / |e| = 180% / 0 --> INFINITY (∞)`
**Real-World Boundaries:**
In reality, prices don't reach infinity because:
- **Budget Constraints:** People literally run out of money.
- **Price Controls / Rationing:** Governments step in during extreme shortages.
---
### Scenario B: Elasticity = -1 (Unitary Elasticity)
**What it means intuitively:**
An elasticity of `-1` means a 1% increase in price results in an exact 1% decrease in quantity demanded.
**The Calculation:**
- **Net Excess Demand:** `200% - 20% = 180%`
- **Required Price Increase:** * `|e| = 1 = 180% / (% Change in Price)` * `% Price Increase = 180% / 1 = +180%`
**The Result:**
A **180% price increase** reduces demand by exactly 180%, clearing the market.
---
Summary Comparison
| Metric | Scenario A (ϵ=0) | Scenario B (ϵ=−1) |
|---|---|---|
| Demand Curve Shape | Vertical line | Downward sloping curve |
| Buyer Behavior | Buy at any cost | Buy less as prices rise |
| Excess Demand | $+180%$ | $+180%$ |
| Market Clearing Price | $\infty$ (Theoretical limit) | $+180%$ |
Nand prices should be at least +180% up over the next 12 months as minimum. Here is an explanation based on the Elasticity function to solve demand and supply
### 1. Core Concept: Market Equilibrium
Prices in a market change whenever there is a mismatch between what buyers want (**Demand**) and what sellers can provide (**Supply**).
Normally, when demand outpaces supply, the price rises. This price increase does two things to restore equilibrium:
* It encourages suppliers to produce a bit more.
* It discourages some buyers, causing demand to fall back down.
How drastically demand drops when prices rise is measured by the **Price Elasticity of Demand (e)**:
> **Formula:** `Elasticity (e) = % Change in Quantity Demanded / % Change in Price`
---
### Scenario A: Elasticity = 0 (Perfectly Inelastic)
**What it means intuitively:**
An elasticity of `0` means buyers are completely insensitive to price changes. No matter how high the price goes, buyers will attempt to purchase the exact same quantity (e.g., life-saving medications like insulin).
**The Problem:**
* **Demand Increase:** +200%
* **Supply Increase:** +20%
* **Net Shortage (Unmet Demand):** +180%
To restore balance, price must rise enough to erase that 180% excess demand.
Using the formula: `% Change in Quantity = e * % Change in Price`
Since `e = 0`:
> `% Change in Quantity = 0 * % Change in Price = 0%`
No matter how high the price goes, demand **never** drops.
**Mathematical Result: Infinity (∞)**
Because demand never falls, the demand curve is a vertical line. It will never intersect the new supply curve at a finite price point.
> `% Price Change = Net Demand Shift / |e| = 180% / 0 --> INFINITY (∞)`
**Real-World Boundaries:**
In reality, prices don't reach infinity because:
**Budget Constraints:** People literally run out of money.
**Price Controls / Rationing:** Governments step in during extreme shortages.
---
### Scenario B: Elasticity = -1 (Unitary Elasticity)
**What it means intuitively:**
An elasticity of `-1` means a 1% increase in price results in an exact 1% decrease in quantity demanded.
**The Calculation:**
**Net Excess Demand:** `200% - 20% = 180%`
**Required Price Increase:**
* `|e| = 1 = 180% / (% Change in Price)`
* `% Price Increase = 180% / 1 = +180%`
**The Result:**
A **180% price increase** reduces demand by exactly 180%, clearing the market.
---
Summary Comparison
| Metric | Scenario A (ϵ=0) | Scenario B (ϵ=−1) |
|---|---|---|
| Demand Curve Shape | Vertical line | Downward sloping curve |
| Buyer Behavior | Buy at any cost | Buy less as prices rise |
| Excess Demand | $+180\%$ | $+180\%$ |
| Market Clearing Price | $\infty$ (Theoretical limit) | $+180\%$ |
Aschenbrenner largest single stock exposure was SNDK in latest 13F update
He did not sell any of his SNDK shares end of June and it was his largest position with ca. 28% of total Portfolio value.
Jane Street Group 13F Portfolio updated ! Largest Single Stock by far is SNDK !
https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Jane+Street+Group
Over 9% of their portfolio is in SNDK shares. Nothing comes close here. Should be a good sign.
Melius Research, Ben Reitzes raised his SNDK price target to $3,600, arguing SanDisk could return $100 billion to shareholders via buybacks over three years.
- SanDisk's 8 hyperscaler contracts guarantee $93.9 billion in minimum revenue over 4-plus years, signaling memory is shedding its commodity discount.
- With $11.5 billion in fiscal 2026 free cash flow and $15.5 billion in buyback authorization, SanDisk's $100 billion repurchase math is credible.
There is a shift to Memory centric AI all over the place now
Sandisk is using a new operating model that is reducing volatility in demand, Chief Executive David Goeckeler tells CNBC. The company makes decisions about producing supply for memory customers 10 to 15 years in advance, Goeckeler says.
reddit.comCantor Fitzgerald Reiterates Overweight on SanDisk, Maintains $2900 Price Target
reddit.comHBF is NOT in any of their revenue forecasts
From the Investor conference:
HBF is NOT in any of their revenue forecasts - and meta just joined the consortium. So any success with HBF is MASSIVE upside for SNDK stock. Easy 50% upside if it works.
They are exploring a 100billion size memory chip for robotics - already in development. Again, massive catalyst.
100% of excess cash will be returned to shareholders, not 90%, 100%.
Jim Keller, legendary chip maker just joined the board.
Bullish.
And Wallstreet had on sales for 2029 -17% and 2030 -28% planned, but the CEO told us 15% to 20% steady far beyond 2030 to be expected. That is Game Changer (in valuation finding).
And Wallstreet had on sales for 2029 -17% and 2030 -28% planned, but the CEO told us 15% to 20% steady far beyond 2030 to be expected. That is Game Changer (in valuation finding).
So basically end of 2028 it was end of cycle or peak cycle calculated on many Fund Managers, but the CEO told us +15% to +20% steady at least far beyond 2030. No peak of cycle is happening!
And if there is no peak cycle ending near, valuations are minimum $2600 for SanDisk but easily $3600 with 15% to 20% CAGR growth longer term.
People asking about selling tomorrow, forget that this one day return is not based out of thin air, this is based on a fundamental change of view how this company needs to be valuated. More upside to come for sure. Just be patient.
Investor Conference Screenshots
The main bullish argument is that from quarter to 4 year visibility now and it is growing further int 2027. Pointing up to 10 years contracts for new NBMs.
Second they are commited to invest all free cash flow, after what they need for own business, into shareholder value, speaking of buybacks. Which should be several billions each quarter.
Third, regarding the Elasticity function the CEO only stated they are looking at market trends on pricing, but the CFO pointed out indirectly with a floor up to 100% price increase in 2027 (they calculate with internally too).
Fourth, they expect the market to grow at 27% CAGR next ten years going forward. And its $500 billion Nand market for 2027. And the basic margin is 80% as floor they calculate with internally going forward until 2034.
No rate hikes from FED (soon) are sure now !
US Supercore CPI YoY: 2.843%, previous 3.172%
With that pace it is sure on the next FED meeting there will be no rate hikes which is good for our SNDK stock.
Actually still "Traders keep bets on 45% chance of september fed rate hike" which means more positive upside for us when there is no hike after the next FED meeting. Those 45% are then zero percent for that event.
The Risk Reward you get is insane now. Citadel shows it does not want to sell below $ 1200, so that is the floor. So you can easily put any stoploss below $ 1150-ish and ride the recovery pullback to at least $ 1900 or higher for a good 6:1 Reward to Risk ratio going long here.
Just hope Citadel is soon ready with their exiting long exposure on SanDisk. The stock is still surpressed with them. That they could not wait for higher prices, they must be weak hands, just out for a very quick profit from Leopolds takeover.
The last couple of trading days SanDisk was surpressed by selling and exiting Citadels exposure here. At least have reduced it a lot. And buybacks did not take place in those days. Today is the first day bubacks are or can take place. That changes it.
The Buybacks will push it back to $ 1900 level for sure and rather sooner than later.
During recent earnings discussions, Elon Musk stated that demand growth is expanding ~10x faster than supply growth—specifically, that memory output/supply is growing at roughly 20% annually, whereas AI-driven demand is surging 200% or more per year. Now what ?
Right, what Tesla Musk said it already, demand is 10 times higher than supply. As there is no elasticity in this market as there are no other products to fill that demand gap, it means prices go up.
But the question is how much ?
+200% or 10-fold = +900% then ? That is something I would like to get an answer to calculate 2027 earnings of SanDisk (on my own). (as we know: price x output = revenue)
And in the press conference it was said that NAND Market size for 2027 is $500 billion (right now). And we know that number can only go further up as time goes by. As I made some research SNDK Nand market share is something between at least 12% to 16%. So it means something around $60 to $80 billion revenue here with at least 80% gross margin. And it won't get worse for 2028 and 2029. And their LongTermAgreements get filled quickly 100% over the next several years.