Armenia, Russia and energy prices
Hi all,
As a resident of Yerevan, I am quite worried about the future, and let's just talk money, no politics.
My average winter bill on gas is about ~60k (3 bedrooms, 3 external walls, corner building).
My average monthly gasoline bill is about ~40k per month.
My average electricity bill is about ~30k per month.
So in total, 100k+, and that's for a mild winter.
All of this is very, very dependent on Russia, and currently, the natural gas is bought at 177, while global market prices are at ~1,000 per 1000 cubic meters.
Electricity prices, as much as I know, are linked to gas prices, as a major source of electricity is the thermal stations in Hrazdan. As far as I know, solar is improving, but it is far from being part of the grid on a stable basis.
And of course, nuclear energy is 100% depending on Russia.
Let's move to oil, 95 is 550 AMD, and that's primarily Russian oil with a discount. Azeri oil (which is also Russian gasoline...) is coming from Russia by russian railroads.
Now, let's assume we have a civilized split from Russia and everything becomes, in the short term, 3 to 10times more expensive, will you be able to survive?
Personally, for me, this will be extremely hard; I will have to make a lot of effort to survive the winter and pay all the bills. I could live ok with a 2x, but with 3x of my bills, things will be very tough.
I see many diasporans cheering the new direction towards the EU, but I don't see any energy alternative from the EU in their narratives. Energy in the EU is probably 5 times more expensive than in Armenia now.
Even if electric/solar becomes a top priority, it will take decades until the infrastructure is updated, everybody drives an electric car, etc.
What are your thoughts on this?