even though I got a great ass and am cute as a button, my weakness is that I'm also dumb so feel free to ignore. In spite of that fact, I attempted to do a whole dive on the thunder's salary cap and I wrote a post that got deleted very quickly on r/nba just trying to get a second opinion on my understanding of cap stuff.

The thunder if they keep both picks, would need to cut about 39 million to get under the second apron. whereas the 28 million they already are over right now.

ADDITIONALLY, using the picks to trade up doesn't really change much if they trade up to 8 or higher. because of how the rookie pay scale works because you're still paying about 8 million for one prospect rather than 10 for 2 prospects.

Essentially the Thunder picking both their picks will put them at a 10-million-dollar cap hit, added onto the 28 million they're already over the second apron. so they can decline Hart's option for 28 million, Kenrich Williams for 8 million and Dort for like 17( i don't have the exact number on me rn but it was around there).

so anyway, the Thunder probably want to keep Hartenstein, and I'm sure they can renegotiate his contract down a bit to help them out. but they'd need straight up decline Dort and Kenrich Williams, and then they'd need to trade Joe or Wiggins probably. and they'd be trading them straight into a trade exception so they wouldn't need to take money back. They'd also probably have to give up an additional good player on a contract of about 5 million or more to a different team, I think? Someone like Topic or Mitchel might need to be in there too.

All in all, the price of these rookies would be high for the thunder. They should consider trading at least one pick. I don't think getting rid of Hartenstein would be remotely the right move and losing a whole trove of important players from Dort, Wiggins/Joe and one of their promising younger guys when this is actually the draft you might have the easiest time getting teams to trade future capital for those picks.

I'm sure Sam Presti will do some magic shit that makes this whole post moot but that is the situation ranted at length by me.

Wagler is probably my favorite guard in the draft but I see the Labaron people and I am starting to come around. I think both players actually do put on weight, I know people say that since he's a sophomore he's not as certain to actually put on weight but I don't think him being a sophomore matters as much as people seem to think and bulking up will be easier at the nba level.

People say "lottery teams shouldn't draft for fit and do BPA" which I think is a logic I dissagree with. You should actually consider how a player will play within a roster. Now if they're good enough and you're just going to build around them, that's awesome but that's certainly not guaranteed to happen for anyone, especially not for the guys picked 5 and later.

I'd say the consensus lottery guys are

SAFE BET LOTTERY PICKS:

The big four (we're skipping them)

The Big four FIVE: guard edition (we're not skipping them)

Brayden Burries (combo guards aren't allowed with the other 4 i guess)

Aday Mara

Yexel Linderborg

GOING TO BE A LOTTERY PICK AND THE FANBASE THAT PICKS HIM WILL HATE IT

Nate Ament

PRETTY CONSENSUS TOP 20 GUYS NOT GUARANTEED TO GO LOTTERY:

Jayden Quaintance

Cameron Carr

Morez Johnson

Hannes Steinbach

I'm probably missing guys but these are the ones I think it's safe to expect to see in that range.

1. If they were a younger brother of a basketball player. i remember hearing once that stats backed this up but I haven't found it since. but Evan Mobley, lil brother, was maybe my favorite prospect of the last 5 years, and i definitely brought up the lil bro thing as evidence why he was good.

2. massive growth spurts. If they just recently had a growth spurt i like that. i 100% buy into some stupid narratives even though I am conscious that I am stupid for that, like every player who just keeps getting bigger, and ESPN is reporting that he's somehow kept growing since the combine. I like that.

3. Older players who just put it all together. I am a fool because I am always going to be pro older players in the draft and want those guys to succeed. I think it's fair that some guys need to take some time before they look nba ready but can still be great. but that's mostly in response to how anti-older players (who are like, 22, that's not actually old). When people bring up that one prospect is like 6 months younger than this other prospect and thus is better I always think it sounds super lame

I think if we're all honest, we're all a little arbitrary about stuff and can try to value weird correlations that by gut feeling more or less you decided makes a prospect great

I mean, I don't think anyone would say it's likely that one of these guards ends up the best, but if one of them was going to be, who would you pick?

I'm stupid, but everything I read makes it sound like Mikel Brown would be the GOAT if his injuries check out, but I like Wagler because it sounds like he would only just be getting access to the pro grade equipment for his own development.

(repost because r/nba deleted the original that i shared)

Dyson Daniels and Franz Wagner both have a pretty decent shot to become the best eighth overall pick since the merger. the current competition is Detlef and Jamal Crawford? the level of hall of fame talent takes a massive dip at pick eight compared to the rest of the lottery.

7 you have Steph Curry, Chris Mullin, Kevin Johnson

number 9 you have Dirk, Tmac, Amare Stoudamire

10 you have paul Pierce and Paul George, Joe Johnson

11 you have Reggie MIller and SGA and Klay thompson

12 you even have Tyrese Halliburton, J Dub,

13 you have Kobe, Karl Malone and Devin Booker

14 you have Drexler, peja and Tim Hardaway Sr

15 you have Kawhi and Giannis and Steve Nash

You can find at least one better player than anyone picked at 8 up until maybe pick 34 you can often find 2 or even 3 players picked there better than anyone picked at number 8. at pick 35 for instance, you have Draymond, Deandre Jordan, and Carlos Boozer.

idk why this pick doesn't produce better players. I still have stock in Bilal so we'll see

Dyson Daniels and Franz Wagner both have a pretty decent shot to become the best eighth overall pick since the merger. the current competition is Detlef and Jamal Crawford? the level of hall of fame talent takes a massive dip at pick eight compared to the rest of the lottery.

7 you have Steph Curry, Chris Mullin, Kevin Johnson

number 9 you have Dirk, Tmac, Amare Stoudamire

10 you have paul Pierce and Paul George, Joe Johnson

11 you have Reggie MIller and SGA and Klay thompson

12 you even have Tyrese Halliburton, J Dub,

13 you have Kobe, Karl Malone and Devin Booker

14 you have Drexler, peja and Tim Hardaway Sr

15 you have Kawhi and Giannis and Steve Nash

You can find at least one better player than anyone picked at 8 up until maybe pick 34 you can often find 2 or even 3 players picked there better than anyone picked at number 8. at pick 35 for instance, you have Draymond, Deandre Jordan, and Carlos Boozer.

idk why this pick doesn't produce better players. I still have stock in Bilal so we'll see

Now the highest they picked was 2 with Chet but that was their own pick. The Rockets had top 3 protections on one of the Russell Westbrook traded picks, and then the other was the 12th pick that they used to trade up to 10.

*technically I guess the highest they picked is 10 from these trades but the Dallas trade wasn't really related to the insane amount of assets they acquired and was just them trading up from 12.

The Clippers picks they've gotten, it's actually pretty wild they weren't higher picks. 12th this year after an all time disastrous start to the season where we thought the thunder would get the first overall pick, and then the 2022 year when both Kawhi and PG were injured they still somehow were an 8 seed team.

If you compare this to the assets that the Pelicans got from the Lakers for AD, the Pels got much better higher value picks. they just...didn't pick as well. they got the 4th pick in the 2019 draft (traded back to get the 8th and 17th pick) and the 8th pick in 2022, which became Dyson Daniels. all in all they got Jaxson Hayes, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Didi Louzada, and Dyson Daniels and kinda Dejounte Murray too since they traded a lakers pick in that trade.

What I think we can learn is that the Thunder didn't really build a dynasty because they had a million draft picks and had a massive war chest, or because they were picking in the high lottery constantly. They were able to get so much value out of their late lottery picks. I think we have to accept that they just develop players better than other teams do. A second round pick was just their second star against the Lakers.