Not a bad time to buy real estate ( Vancouver)
I have been looking at the Metro Vancouver real estate market for over 25 years now.
I own 2 detached homes and 2 condos in downtown Vancouver.
I am not in a financial distress. I have a 3 million mortgage and I have 2 million cash. The properties themselves generate $240,000 a year from short term rental and long term rental. I am now semi retired making $100k a year working part time.
I pounded the table that people should buy in 2020 (low interest rate and price stagnation 2017 to 2020).
I pounded the table again that people should NOT buy in 2022-2023 especially pre-sale (speculation, sooner or later people will begin to renew mortgage 1.7% to 5.0%, a lot of supplies coming in future).
I do not pound (due to uncertainty in regards to inflation and thus interest rate but I think it is not a bad time to buy)
Tips for new homebuyers and my prediction for Metro Vancouver real estate:
Condo prices (both low rise and high rise) will likely stagnate or very little upside : it is WAY easier for developers to build now. This is not 2010 or 2013. Things have changed. The B.C. province also recently introduced transit oriented development. It makes it easier for development for new condos. Be aware! The condos are cheap but may stay cheap.
Location will matter and land will matter : buy townhomes or detached homes near skytrain or future skytrain stations. You will do incredibly well.
When it comes to real estate or investing in general. It is not about just having a good fundamental but also a good story. In fact, having a great investment thesis (story) is sometimes more important.
Buying these lands/detached homes near this skytrain station, you now essentially have a land where 20 storey towers can be built. Look at langley future skytrain stations and look at the detached homes. They are not that expensive. Yet.
*A case in point, I went to an open house located very close to the future Willowbrook Mall skytrain station. Priced at 1.1 million dollars 1900sqft/4200sqft/4beds/2baths/detached. There were at least 40 families who came by and the house was sold 3 days later. This is the real story.
The government will slowly open its gate for immigration once again. People are against immigration and I understand why but mathematically speaking it is better to have immigration then have the population going down like South Korea or Japan. They have serious problems. Many regions in Canada have lower birth rates than Japan now. This is a serious problem and will be addressed by immigration. There is no other way. The government will open doors for international students as well.
People have money. A lot more money than you think. This unprecedented stock market boom from 2020 to 2025. Your net worth would've at minimum doubled if you bought qqq. Or 3x, 4x, 5x or 10x if you bought Nvda amd google oil stock xei etf whatever you bought except nike and lululemon..
I have 2 mil cash. My parents have 1 mil cash. My friend made 10 mil cash. Why are people not buying real estate? I just have another friend who just 2xed his money in 2 weeks through micron and amd stock. People are having different ideas about investing now but this hype will eventually end I believe. I sense slowing down economy with some of the mistakes Trump making. Tariff and war leading to both high inflation making it difficult for stocks to continuento go down without money printer on.
Most of them wont sell unless they have to. If you were in the homeowners' shoes, would you sell? I see a homeowner who bought his condo for 1 mil and now priced at 850k. He put in his own money 200k. After the realtor fee and property transfer tax. If he sells at 850k, he would be left with 10-20k and realize the loss of 180k. Would you sell for 20k? To do what? Buy a used 2017 honda? No they will hold their properties and they will not sell. They will hold. I would even go as far to say that they would hold even if it is a losing money investment.
Real estate projects are screeching halting. The only build so far was from government subsidized rental condos. On the other hand you have the population of Metro Vancouver still GOING UP although the general Canadian population has decreased.
Give it another 3-5 years. You will likely double your down payment. The price is not bad. The market sentiment is REALLY BAd. It will turn. Negotiate another 3-5% price drop. Look for a great location within transit oriented areas (check the surrey and langley area for a more affordable option). You will do incredibly well. If the developer knocks on your door you just 5xed your down payment.
I think I will be right.. at least so far I have always predicted correctly.
Hope everyone does well.