I made a post a while ago: Not a bad time to buy real estate (Vancouver) on r/RealEstateCanada.

I said it is not a bad time to buy, but I did not say it is a wonderful time to buy either. If you have the money, you can negotiate the price down by 5% to 10% depending on the neighborhood since it is a buyer's market. If you like the place, and if you think this is your home for the long term, it may not be a bad idea to pull the trigger.

The reason why I still cannot confidently say it is a good time to buy is because of the prolonged warfare in Iran and tariff threats. I think inflation is here to stay for a few more years. Personally, I am not even sure if Trump can end the Iranian conflict—where three Iranian drones were decommissioned and an oil tanker was intercepted in that narrow strait, alongside the Red Sea being taken over by Houthi rebels—unless he intervenes directly. But if he does intervene, I don't know how much damage Iran would cause to surrounding energy-driven Middle East countries.

Anyway...

1. Principal Residence Tax Exemption

You buy a $1 million townhouse with $200k down. If this asset goes up by 20% over the course of the next 10 years, you essentially double your money and you don't have to pay tax on it. At a minimum, you can hedge yourself against real estate inflation. This is huge. If you buy a detached house for $1.2 million and it gets redeveloped for $2.4 million, you 4x your money tax-free. I am paying a 53% income tax rate and a 72.5% capital gains inclusion rate this year. You cannot make money this way no matter what your salary is. You have to take advantage of the TFSA, the Principal Residence Exemption, and the Lifetime Capital Gains Exemption (if you are a business owner) to build wealth in this country.

2. Presale Condos vs. Newer Condos

I have never bought a presale condo in my life. I heard the outcries of Chinese investors in 2018–2019 when they were trapped by the presale condo downturn, and I heard the same outcries from presale investors again in 2022–2023. DO NOT BUY PRESALE unless you absolutely must.

First, quality is not guaranteed, and most likely it won't be good. Second, you pay a heavy premium for it. Third, if you have to be defensive with real estate investing—such as in a worst-case scenario where you have to rent out your own place to cover the mortgage—you won't be able to cover the entire mortgage amount. Always buy condos that are 2 to 5 years old, proven to have a well-managed strata, and built with good quality.

3. Downtown Vancouver Presale

Never buy presale in Downtown Vancouver. Don't even try. The premiums are too high, there is little demand upon completion, and the quality is poor. I have heard so many bad things over the course of a decade. This is often where foreign investors or criminal organizations launder money. I truly think that because why buy these presales when, historically speaking, almost everyone loses money?

4. Townhomes vs. Detached

You should not be investing in a physical asset that depreciates in value over time. You should be investing in the land. A condo should only be considered if it is your first step in this industry and you want to capture some tax advantages, but it should never be your final destination. You will be bombarded with special levies and depreciation reports 10 to 20 years later.

5. Interest Rates and Population Growth

Interest rates are probably the single most important indicator for the real estate market in Vancouver. I predict market trends primarily based on this, followed by price, the broader economy, and population growth. But all of these factors matter very little when interest rates are high.

Interest rates represent buying power. It wasn't just population growth that drove real estate price appreciation back in 2021; it was the 1.8% interest rate that suddenly allowed people to borrow five times their gross income cheaply. Why wouldn't you buy a $600,000 two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo yielding $2,500 in rent when you are paying a 1.5% interest rate, especially after two years of price decline and stagnation? It was very obvious.

Based on my experience, demand outpaces supply when mortgage interest rates drop below 3%. Between 2% and 2.5% is a very sweet spot. Then you run the numbers: even if you plan to live there, if you were to rent out the whole suite or the whole house, could you cover the mortgage payment—or at least mostly cover it—so you can comfortably de-risk?

6. Long-Term Investment

I own a few properties and have zero intention to sell. My mortgage payments for all of these properties are covered entirely by rent, except for my principal residence, of course. Each of these properties serves a unique purpose:

• Yaletown Condo: I can easily imagine myself living and working here with my new family. It is 1,200 square feet, large enough to raise a family, and right in the heart of the restaurant scene, which is one of the hobbies my wife and I share.
• Central Downtown Condo: I can imagine keeping this condo forever. I bought it very cheap—it yields $4,500 a month now, and I bought it for $680,000. It has shared laundry facilities, but who cares? I don't live there, so I don't have to worry about a washing machine causing a water leak. Its ROI is 15% to 20% each year.
• Vancouver Detached House: I bought this with a friend. He originally wanted to buy a presale condo, but I stopped him. He is generating $150,000 a year via Airbnb at the moment, and I receive 10% of my investment back. I wanted him to succeed and am truly happy for him. It is located within a Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) zone.
• Langley Detached House: I bought it close to a Skytrain station for a mere $1.1 million, right beside Willowbrook Mall. Even if it never gets developed into a high-rise condo, I am fine with it. It is close to all major retail stores in Canada. The neighborhood is quiet without petty crime or homeless populations, and I can see myself living there long term. I asked another friend of mine to buy here; if he was short on cash, I offered to provide $200k in liquidity for a 20% ownership stake. The first-floor suite generates an average of $2,800 per month on Airbnb.

You must put the numbers aside at some point and actually look at the property. Why would it be a good long-term investment? Why would you never sell if you bought this? You have to ask yourself these honest questions, otherwise, you will waste $40k on realtor fees and property transfer taxes every time you move.

7. Diversifying Your Investments

I try to aim for a 50/50 split between real estate property investments and liquid equity markets, such as stocks, bonds, or other investment opportunities. Should you go all-in on the Vancouver real estate market? I can't recommend that. A TFSA might actually work better initially.

8. International Comparisons

Vancouver real estate is not objectively expensive depending on which country or city you are comparing it to. People need to visit London, Nice, Rome, Seattle, Miami, Seoul, Tokyo, or Dubai to actually see what expensive real estate looks like. An $850,000, 1,000-square-foot, 2-bed, 2-bath condo in Brentwood that is seven years old is not expensive. By comparison, I can barely buy a decent flat in London. Statistics show that even with millions of dollars in the bank and in real estate, I am in the top 4% in Canada, which I recently looked up. The top 4% means roughly 1 out of every 25 households sits at or above that level. That is a significant number of people.

9. Do Not Rush

Try not to buy aggressively during a seller's market. I bought that central downtown condo back in 2024 after the party was over and interest rates were high. I knew a 6% open variable interest rate was temporary and that the Canadian economy wouldn't be able to sustain it long term. That property was priced at $850,000 at its all-time high, but I bought it for $700,000 all-in, yielding a 15% to 25% return based on my initial capital. Don't rush your investments.

Remember that back in February 2020 during COVID, we briefly had 0% interest rates, yet the real estate market didn't move for about six months. Why? When interest rates get lowered, it is usually because there is extreme fear in the market. Even when rates drop, more often than not, it's because there are underlying risks to be afraid of. Even if we reach a 3% interest rate environment, look at as many properties as possible and choose one that fulfills your long-term investment thesis.

The bears and bulls should not time your purchase. The timing is yours and yours alone. Only you know appropriately when to buy, but you should preferrably buy when it is in a bear market.

Fixed only grammar and spelling with Gemini.

It is difficult to fathom that a Canadian federal agency cannot even answer a phone call or place the caller in a waiting queue because all available agents are busy. They need to hire more staffs. It is frustrating that callers are simply unable to access the service at all. I have never experienced this in other countries.

Edit:

- I never advocated for public services cut.

- I was never even given a chance to leave a message to get a call back. They said just call back or use the online services.

- I am actually surprised that many are actually okay with this based on the comments that I read. It is like our health care system. People are mostly okay with it until they are urgently in need of such service.

I have been looking at the Metro Vancouver real estate market for over 25 years now.

I own 2 detached homes and 2 condos in downtown Vancouver.

I am not in a financial distress. I have a 3 million mortgage and I have 2 million cash. The properties themselves generate $240,000 a year from short term rental and long term rental. I am now semi retired making $100k a year working part time.

I pounded the table that people should buy in 2020 (low interest rate and price stagnation 2017 to 2020).

I pounded the table again that people should NOT buy in 2022-2023 especially pre-sale (speculation, sooner or later people will begin to renew mortgage 1.7% to 5.0%, a lot of supplies coming in future).

I do not pound (due to uncertainty in regards to inflation and thus interest rate but I think it is not a bad time to buy)

Tips for new homebuyers and my prediction for Metro Vancouver real estate:

1. Condo prices (both low rise and high rise) will likely stagnate or very little upside : it is WAY easier for developers to build now. This is not 2010 or 2013. Things have changed. The B.C. province also recently introduced transit oriented development. It makes it easier for development for new condos. Be aware! The condos are cheap but may stay cheap.

2. Location will matter and land will matter : buy townhomes or detached homes near skytrain or future skytrain stations. You will do incredibly well.

When it comes to real estate or investing in general. It is not about just having a good fundamental but also a good story. In fact, having a great investment thesis (story) is sometimes more important.

Buying these lands/detached homes near this skytrain station, you now essentially have a land where 20 storey towers can be built. Look at langley future skytrain stations and look at the detached homes. They are not that expensive. Yet.

*A case in point, I went to an open house located very close to the future Willowbrook Mall skytrain station. Priced at 1.1 million dollars 1900sqft/4200sqft/4beds/2baths/detached. There were at least 40 families who came by and the house was sold 3 days later. This is the real story.

3. The government will slowly open its gate for immigration once again. People are against immigration and I understand why but mathematically speaking it is better to have immigration then have the population going down like South Korea or Japan. They have serious problems. Many regions in Canada have lower birth rates than Japan now. This is a serious problem and will be addressed by immigration. There is no other way. The government will open doors for international students as well.

4. People have money. A lot more money than you think. This unprecedented stock market boom from 2020 to 2025. Your net worth would've at minimum doubled if you bought qqq. Or 3x, 4x, 5x or 10x if you bought Nvda amd google oil stock xei etf whatever you bought except nike and lululemon..

I have 2 mil cash. My parents have 1 mil cash. My friend made 10 mil cash. Why are people not buying real estate? I just have another friend who just 2xed his money in 2 weeks through micron and amd stock. People are having different ideas about investing now but this hype will eventually end I believe. I sense slowing down economy with some of the mistakes Trump making. Tariff and war leading to both high inflation making it difficult for stocks to continuento go down without money printer on.

5. Most of them wont sell unless they have to. If you were in the homeowners' shoes, would you sell? I see a homeowner who bought his condo for 1 mil and now priced at 850k. He put in his own money 200k. After the realtor fee and property transfer tax. If he sells at 850k, he would be left with 10-20k and realize the loss of 180k. Would you sell for 20k? To do what? Buy a used 2017 honda? No they will hold their properties and they will not sell. They will hold. I would even go as far to say that they would hold even if it is a losing money investment.

6. Real estate projects are screeching halting. The only build so far was from government subsidized rental condos. On the other hand you have the population of Metro Vancouver still GOING UP although the general Canadian population has decreased.

Give it another 3-5 years. You will likely double your down payment. The price is not bad. The market sentiment is REALLY BAd. It will turn. Negotiate another 3-5% price drop. Look for a great location within transit oriented areas (check the surrey and langley area for a more affordable option). You will do incredibly well. If the developer knocks on your door you just 5xed your down payment.

I think I will be right.. at least so far I have always predicted correctly.

Hope everyone does well.