u/CaptainKush101

Revenue, EBIDA, and Cash Position - Actuals and Guidance

Both revenue and EBIDA came in high side of guidance. With revenue at 29.5m and EBIDA at -10.5m. This was an all-time high revenue quarter, and management confirmed the EBIDA guidance of reducing though EOY as the current Capex cycle comes to an end.

Keep in mind we are already halfway through Q3, and managements guidance for the current quarter is 35m-37.5m and an EBIDA loss of 4-7m. This is the flywheel inflection point for revenue. Q1 - Q3 forecasted starts to really show the hockey stick forming, with revenue this year going from:

Q1 25.6m> Q2 29.5m> Q3 35m-37.5m

and EBIDA -

Q1 -12.3> Q2 -10.5m> Q3 between -4m-7m

This is revenue increasing 20-25% quarter to quarter, and EBIDA reflecting the reduction in capex associated with the SurfOS build out, and investment in electric infrastructure for the Hawaii operations.

If we use the midpoint estimates for Q3, call it 36m revenue and 5.5m EBIDA burn we can back into Q4 estimates by subtracting out from the full year guidance of 128m-138m revenue and 25m-30m EBIDA burn, we end up with 37m-47m revenue and EBIDA between -1.7m and breakeven.

The cash position at the end of June was ~18m from the latest 10Q, and that doesn't include the second tranche of non-dilutive funding that closed at the end of July. If we add that up, and subtract quarter to date cash burn, this leaves us with about 25m-30m in cash, which is starting to look like more than enough runway to cash flow positive.

Overall, with revenue growth, cash on hand, EBIDA loss stabilizing, and high margin products commercializing, this is by far the best financial position the business has been on since it came on my radar in Q3 of last year.

Growth Drivers

The growth driver for Q2 was the On-Demand segment, which will continue to do the heavy lifting from a revenue perspective through the end of the year. This was led by Surfs internal brokerage team which grew 102% yoy, with that growth accelerating over the past 3 quarters, it will continue to be the main revenue engine as SurfOS comes online. There efficienies are largely being driven by BrokerOS and ARGUS certification.

We also got insight into some additional revenue drivers within the On-Demand business segment. The three business units below contributing ~14% of the On-Demand revenue:

Power By On-Demand - This is the independent broker program that allows them to leverage BrokerOS with 50 active brokers on board at the end of Q2, with a target of 100 by year end, and 500 in the queue.

Cargo On-Demand - This is a rather new business unit, but Josh said he expects it to grow. Interested in if this revenue was from the cargo test flights with Beta in Hawaii, or if this is revenue from other markets.

Wholesale - This is the buying of bulk flight hours at a wholesale discount and selling those flight hours at a higher margin through BrokerOS. Good to see some working capital being deployed with the more secure cash position.

I also wanted to shout out the airline business, which showed yoy growth, and is profitable.

Forward Looking

Wheels Up Is Live - This one is 'Forward looking" from a Q2 perspective, but confirmation that 2m of this revenue will be realized in H2 this year. Great to see.

OperatorOS & OwnerOS - Q4 launch is forecasted for both of these products. There was language implying that one of the LOI stage businesses for OperatorOS is in the process of onboarding, with a queue forming behind that initial launch. OwnerOS should be a shorter sales cycle compared to operator, but they have not provided too many details on that pipeline besides the Q4 commit for go-live.

Enterprise Pipeline - Committed to one additional enterprise contract this year. They mentioned operators, brokers, and OEM's in the current pipeline.

Breaking Down the Bear Case

The bear case has revolved around a lack of revenue growth, dilution risks, and cash concerns.

With Q2 achieving ath revenue, and Q3 projecting 20%-25% growth quarter to quarter, the revenue growth argument is falling apart fast.

On the dilution front, with the cash on hand, the restructuring of the high trail note, and no need for GEM draws, the worst of the dilution is clearly behind us.

I've already touched on cash on hand, but the napkin math shows we are approaching cash on hand to get us to cash flow positive at some point next year, further strengthening my point on dilution risks.

Surf-Air-Mobility-Investor-Deck-August-2026.pdf

Kudos to those shorts that rode the stock down since the going concern released. It looks like the sophisticated bears who understand the business are covering heading into the Q2 earnings call.

It's pretty obvious from some recent posts that the assertion that Surf is a regional airline trying to scale flight operations is a key thesis for bears, which is not at all rooted in reality.

With the Q2 call projected to show strong revenue growth and EBIDA loss shrinking drastically, it looks like the smart short money is covering.

Pretty ballsey to stay short at atl under these conditions, I guess kudos for that.

TikTok

Hi All,

We are a few weeks out from the Q2 call after hours on 8/10, so I wanted to take the opportunity to make a quick summary of what to keep an eye on in the call -

Revenue - The expectation is that revenue will achieve a quarterly ATH (Forecasting 27-30m). This would represent a significant revenue increase driven by the Surf Powered by On-Demand program at much stronger margins than the airline side of the business. The overall growth trajectory of the Powered by On-Demand program is expected to be the main revenue driver in 2026, keep an eye on the YoY growth number for the On-Demand business. It's assumed the Wheels Up revenue won't show up until the Q3 call, but that should be the first time that software revenue is broken out rather than the current revenue being buried in the On-Demand revenue.

EBIDA Burn Decreasing - Management decreased yearly EBIDA cash burn to 25-30m earlier in the year, with a vast majority of that being in H1 2026 - put another way, the bear cash-burn thesis will look increasingly stale if the H1 numbers hold. Another EBIDA beat would be great and also look for further clarification on if management shares when they expect EBIDA breakeven to occur. Based on Q1 burn and forecasted Q2, we should be looking at a H2 2026 EBIDA loss of 4-7m spread across both quarters, decreasing Q3>Q4. This will confirm that the cash flow situation is improving and will go a long way to diffusing the current going concern. Specifics about EBIDA/Cash Flow breakeven would be great pieces of information for analysts and investors.

Beta Test Flight Results and Next Steps - The Beta test flights in Hawaii are scheduled to end roughly the week before the Q2 call. Sharing results of those flights and discussing the next phase of the partnership with Beta, with the end goal of being their first passenger commercial partner, would be an exciting update on the electrification front.

OperatorOS Update - The OperatorOS LOI/Software agreement pipeline has been live since H2 2025, and management committed to 10 live operators by EOY. Specifics on deal stages or forecasting closing dates would be great to see and further solidify the software/marketplace pivot thesis.

These are the big topics that will almost certainly be addressed. I also expect some wort of wildcard, as we are currently in a press release dry spell since the wheels up/expanded Palantir partnership news from 5 weeks ago.

Just to disclose my position, I have 130k shares at about a $1.80 average.

I've been early to stocks before, and the current price action is the price to pay for being early.

Yeet,

Hi All,

I'm very excited about today's announcement and progress of the Surf Powered by On-Demand program and wanted to share a pertinent quote for the price action over the past year.

"In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine, in the long term, it's a scale"

The price action we have seen over the past 3-6 months is not indicative of the "weight" of this business, it's a reflection of the "vote" negative sentiment that has surrounded the stock, not all of it unjustified.

Currently, trading at .7 of 2026 revenue, the stock is criminally undervalued. I've done a lot of due diligence on this stock, and It's very exciting to see the key parts of this thesis come together.

• Surf Powered by On-Demand on pace to exceed 100 Brokers by EOY
• First Enterprise customer signed ahead of scheduled
• OperatorOS targeting H2 2026 Go Live
• Electric Demo Flights starting in the next few weeks

And management has shown a lot of confidence in their plan with the revenue target increase and EBIDA burn decrease announcements.

I encourage everyone to remember that these kind of turn arounds and growth stories do not play out over weeks and months, but quarters and years. Today was a big one to confirm that SurfOS is for real.

The scale will show the truth in the long term; it's just your job to diamond hand this shit until then.

Yeet.

I genuinely cannot see a bear case for the stock at this price point, yet 12m shares+ remain shorted.

To the bears in the sub, let's debate your thesis!