Hey everyone. Something I predicted last week actually happened, which does not always go that way, so I want to walk through it. Sorry for the day late post, busy life schedule, will do better next week.

Calculator (updated this week): https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/

Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator

All data sourced from MyCasesHub.

The short version

USCIS approved about 2,484 cases this week, and February is now the biggest month at 37 percent. Last week I said that if the month-by-month pattern continued, February would be next in line. That is exactly what happened. December is also nearly finished, down to just 56 cases this week.

Who got approved this week

You applied in	Cases	Typical wait
Nov 2025	5	267 days
Dec 2025	56	232 days
Jan 2026	815	204 days
Feb 2026	912	184 days
Mar 2026	175	151 days
Apr 2026	66	127 days
Jun 2026	78	52 days
Jul 2026	358	24 days

The month-by-month march is now four months deep

Here is the pattern across the last four weeks:

	Jul 20	Jul 27	Aug 3	Aug 10
December	44%	21%	13%	2%
January	13%	42%	54%	33%
February	7%	8%	9%	37%

December peaked, then handed off to January, and now January is handing off to February. Each month rises, dominates for a week or two, then fades as USCIS moves forward. It is one of the clearest patterns I have seen in this data.

November is down to 5 cases and December to 56, so those two months look close to complete. If the pattern continues, March would be next, and there are already signs of it starting (175 March cases this week, up from 140).

I said last week I did not want to promise February was next, and I am going to keep that same caution about March. But the pattern has now held four weeks running, so I think it is worth sharing.

The waits are still holding steady

Two updates ago I reported that wait times for the older months had stopped climbing after weeks of rising. That has now held for a second week:

Applied in	3 weeks ago	2 weeks ago	Last week	This week
December	221 days	222 days	222 days	232 days
January	201 days	201 days	201 days	204 days
February	170 days	167 days	167 days	184 days

A note on reading this honestly: January is essentially flat, and December ticked up because only 56 cases remain, so the few still coming through are the ones that took longest. February's number rose because USCIS is now working the entire month rather than just the earliest dates, so it is pulling in later February filings with naturally longer waits. Neither of those is the pattern I was worried about a few weeks back, where the same month kept getting slower week after week.

The same limitation, stated again

I only see cases that get approved, not the pile still pending. So I cannot tell you how many people are still waiting in your month, and I will not claim the older backlog is over. What I can show you is what came through, and this week that was 912 February applications, 815 January ones, and 175 from March.

For recent applicants

July applications are moving in a median of about 24 days, holding steady for a fourth week. There were solid batches this week: 136 approvals for July 24 filings, 68 for July 17, and 43 for July 20. A few early August applications were approved within days.

How the estimate works, quickly

If your application has been in longer than the minimum processing time, currently about three weeks, then cases like yours are being approved around now. If you applied very recently, the estimate is your date plus that minimum time. For older applications still in extended review, the estimate is less reliable, and I want to keep saying that plainly.

A note some of you have asked about: if you put in different dates from February, March, April, and May and get similar windows, that is not a bug. USCIS has caught up enough that people from those months really are being approved around the same time right now. The estimate only differs meaningfully for applications from the last few weeks, which still need the minimum processing time.

What dates got approved over the last 3 weeks (every date listed)

Every single application date, nothing left out. If you see your date, people who applied the same day as you were approved.

Week of July 27, 2026, 2,044 cases approved

Median application date: Jan 12, 2026. Median wait: 199 days.

Application date	Cases	% of week
Feb 11, 2025	1	0.0%
Jul 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 31, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 2, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 5, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 8, 2025	5	0.2%
Dec 9, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 10, 2025	9	0.4%
Dec 11, 2025	42	2.1%
Dec 12, 2025	45	2.2%
Dec 15, 2025	16	0.8%
Dec 16, 2025	6	0.3%
Dec 17, 2025	8	0.4%
Dec 18, 2025	18	0.9%
Dec 19, 2025	23	1.1%
Dec 20, 2025	140	6.8%
Dec 22, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 23, 2025	3	0.1%
Dec 24, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 27, 2025	98	4.8%
Dec 29, 2025	5	0.2%
Dec 30, 2025	3	0.1%
Dec 31, 2025	1	0.0%
Jan 2, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 3, 2026	10	0.5%
Jan 5, 2026	109	5.3%
Jan 6, 2026	98	4.8%
Jan 7, 2026	126	6.2%
Jan 8, 2026	95	4.6%
Jan 9, 2026	105	5.1%
Jan 10, 2026	6	0.3%
Jan 12, 2026	48	2.3%
Jan 13, 2026	24	1.2%
Jan 14, 2026	55	2.7%
Jan 15, 2026	38	1.9%
Jan 16, 2026	71	3.5%
Jan 17, 2026	13	0.6%
Jan 20, 2026	9	0.4%
Jan 21, 2026	7	0.3%
Jan 22, 2026	6	0.3%
Jan 23, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 24, 2026	24	1.2%
Jan 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 28, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 29, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 30, 2026	4	0.2%
Jan 31, 2026	6	0.3%
Feb 2, 2026	10	0.5%
Feb 3, 2026	9	0.4%
Feb 4, 2026	12	0.6%
Feb 5, 2026	6	0.3%
Feb 6, 2026	9	0.4%
Feb 7, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 9, 2026	24	1.2%
Feb 10, 2026	19	0.9%
Feb 11, 2026	13	0.6%
Feb 12, 2026	10	0.5%
Feb 13, 2026	9	0.4%
Feb 14, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 17, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 18, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 19, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 20, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 21, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 23, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 24, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 25, 2026	6	0.3%
Feb 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 28, 2026	15	0.7%
Mar 3, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 5, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 7, 2026	14	0.7%
Mar 9, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 10, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 11, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 13, 2026	7	0.3%
Mar 14, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 16, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 17, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 18, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 19, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 20, 2026	10	0.5%
Mar 21, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 22, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 23, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 24, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 25, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 30, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 31, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 2, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 6, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 7, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 17, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 21, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 24, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 30, 2026	1	0.0%
May 7, 2026	1	0.0%
May 8, 2026	1	0.0%
May 15, 2026	1	0.0%
May 16, 2026	1	0.0%
May 21, 2026	1	0.0%
May 22, 2026	2	0.1%
May 23, 2026	1	0.0%
May 26, 2026	4	0.2%
May 27, 2026	1	0.0%
May 28, 2026	2	0.1%
May 29, 2026	8	0.4%
Jun 1, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 3, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 4, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 5, 2026	14	0.7%
Jun 8, 2026	7	0.3%
Jun 9, 2026	9	0.4%
Jun 10, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 11, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 12, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 15, 2026	9	0.4%
Jun 16, 2026	4	0.2%
Jun 17, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 18, 2026	10	0.5%
Jun 22, 2026	6	0.3%
Jun 23, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 24, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 25, 2026	8	0.4%
Jun 26, 2026	15	0.7%
Jun 27, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 29, 2026	14	0.7%
Jun 30, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 1, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 2, 2026	39	1.9%
Jul 3, 2026	94	4.6%
Jul 4, 2026	20	1.0%
Jul 6, 2026	4	0.2%
Jul 7, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 9, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 10, 2026	137	6.7%
Jul 11, 2026	6	0.3%
Jul 17, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 23, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 24, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 28, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 29, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 30, 2026	4	0.2%

Week of August 3, 2026, 2,142 cases approved

Median application date: Jan 21, 2026. Median wait: 194 days.

Application date	Cases	% of week
Dec 19, 2024	1	0.0%
Jun 4, 2025	1	0.0%
Jul 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Sep 2, 2025	1	0.0%
Sep 30, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 3, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 19, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 20, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 2, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 4, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 12, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 18, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 19, 2025	36	1.7%
Dec 20, 2025	3	0.1%
Dec 22, 2025	42	2.0%
Dec 23, 2025	19	0.9%
Dec 24, 2025	23	1.1%
Dec 26, 2025	19	0.9%
Dec 27, 2025	103	4.8%
Dec 29, 2025	8	0.4%
Dec 30, 2025	10	0.5%
Dec 31, 2025	8	0.4%
Jan 2, 2026	27	1.3%
Jan 3, 2026	198	9.2%
Jan 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 5, 2026	12	0.6%
Jan 6, 2026	11	0.5%
Jan 7, 2026	10	0.5%
Jan 8, 2026	7	0.3%
Jan 9, 2026	5	0.2%
Jan 10, 2026	140	6.5%
Jan 12, 2026	46	2.1%
Jan 13, 2026	22	1.0%
Jan 14, 2026	94	4.4%
Jan 15, 2026	50	2.3%
Jan 16, 2026	52	2.4%
Jan 17, 2026	17	0.8%
Jan 20, 2026	44	2.1%
Jan 21, 2026	56	2.6%
Jan 22, 2026	68	3.2%
Jan 23, 2026	56	2.6%
Jan 24, 2026	8	0.4%
Jan 26, 2026	47	2.2%
Jan 27, 2026	20	0.9%
Jan 28, 2026	36	1.7%
Jan 29, 2026	44	2.1%
Jan 30, 2026	66	3.1%
Jan 31, 2026	30	1.4%
Feb 2, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 4, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 5, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 7, 2026	14	0.7%
Feb 9, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 10, 2026	5	0.2%
Feb 11, 2026	8	0.4%
Feb 12, 2026	6	0.3%
Feb 13, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 14, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 17, 2026	21	1.0%
Feb 18, 2026	25	1.2%
Feb 19, 2026	28	1.3%
Feb 20, 2026	19	0.9%
Feb 23, 2026	7	0.3%
Feb 24, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 25, 2026	9	0.4%
Feb 26, 2026	10	0.5%
Feb 27, 2026	15	0.7%
Feb 28, 2026	9	0.4%
Mar 2, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 5, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 6, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 7, 2026	16	0.7%
Mar 11, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 13, 2026	13	0.6%
Mar 14, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 16, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 17, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 18, 2026	8	0.4%
Mar 19, 2026	7	0.3%
Mar 20, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 21, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 23, 2026	12	0.6%
Mar 24, 2026	8	0.4%
Mar 25, 2026	10	0.5%
Mar 26, 2026	14	0.7%
Mar 27, 2026	17	0.8%
Mar 28, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 30, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 31, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 1, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 2, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 6, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 7, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 8, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 10, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 14, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 15, 2026	3	0.1%
Apr 16, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 22, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 28, 2026	1	0.0%
May 1, 2026	1	0.0%
May 2, 2026	1	0.0%
May 14, 2026	1	0.0%
May 18, 2026	1	0.0%
May 22, 2026	1	0.0%
May 23, 2026	1	0.0%
May 26, 2026	1	0.0%
May 29, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 1, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 5, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 8, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 9, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 11, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 12, 2026	4	0.2%
Jun 15, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 17, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 18, 2026	10	0.5%
Jun 22, 2026	6	0.3%
Jun 23, 2026	7	0.3%
Jun 26, 2026	4	0.2%
Jun 29, 2026	6	0.3%
Jun 30, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 1, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 2, 2026	21	1.0%
Jul 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 6, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 7, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 8, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 9, 2026	12	0.6%
Jul 10, 2026	93	4.3%
Jul 11, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 13, 2026	18	0.8%
Jul 14, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 15, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 17, 2026	91	4.2%
Jul 18, 2026	3	0.1%
Jul 24, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 31, 2026	2	0.1%
Aug 3, 2026	5	0.2%
Aug 4, 2026	2	0.1%
Aug 5, 2026	2	0.1%

Week of August 10, 2026, 2,484 cases approved

Median application date: Feb 9, 2026. Median wait: 185 days.

Application date	Cases	% of week
Oct 24, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 6, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 11, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 18, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 25, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 26, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 5, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 10, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 11, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 19, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 22, 2025	9	0.4%
Dec 23, 2025	26	1.0%
Dec 24, 2025	4	0.2%
Dec 27, 2025	12	0.5%
Jan 2, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 3, 2026	40	1.6%
Jan 5, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 6, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 7, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 8, 2026	8	0.3%
Jan 9, 2026	15	0.6%
Jan 10, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 12, 2026	27	1.1%
Jan 13, 2026	11	0.4%
Jan 14, 2026	24	1.0%
Jan 15, 2026	24	1.0%
Jan 16, 2026	59	2.4%
Jan 17, 2026	124	5.0%
Jan 20, 2026	26	1.0%
Jan 21, 2026	25	1.0%
Jan 22, 2026	20	0.8%
Jan 23, 2026	28	1.1%
Jan 24, 2026	173	7.0%
Jan 26, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 27, 2026	4	0.2%
Jan 28, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 29, 2026	11	0.4%
Jan 30, 2026	21	0.8%
Jan 31, 2026	161	6.5%
Feb 1, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 2, 2026	73	2.9%
Feb 3, 2026	59	2.4%
Feb 4, 2026	62	2.5%
Feb 5, 2026	69	2.8%
Feb 6, 2026	47	1.9%
Feb 7, 2026	13	0.5%
Feb 9, 2026	78	3.1%
Feb 10, 2026	61	2.5%
Feb 11, 2026	72	2.9%
Feb 12, 2026	68	2.7%
Feb 13, 2026	60	2.4%
Feb 14, 2026	12	0.5%
Feb 17, 2026	46	1.9%
Feb 18, 2026	54	2.2%
Feb 19, 2026	47	1.9%
Feb 20, 2026	46	1.9%
Feb 21, 2026	10	0.4%
Feb 23, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 24, 2026	7	0.3%
Feb 25, 2026	6	0.2%
Feb 26, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 28, 2026	14	0.6%
Mar 2, 2026	7	0.3%
Mar 3, 2026	6	0.2%
Mar 4, 2026	9	0.4%
Mar 5, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 6, 2026	6	0.2%
Mar 7, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 9, 2026	8	0.3%
Mar 10, 2026	7	0.3%
Mar 11, 2026	9	0.4%
Mar 12, 2026	8	0.3%
Mar 13, 2026	17	0.7%
Mar 14, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 16, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 17, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 18, 2026	9	0.4%
Mar 19, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 20, 2026	23	0.9%
Mar 21, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 23, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 24, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 25, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 26, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 27, 2026	9	0.4%
Mar 28, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 30, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 31, 2026	10	0.4%
Apr 1, 2026	9	0.4%
Apr 2, 2026	9	0.4%
Apr 3, 2026	9	0.4%
Apr 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 6, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 7, 2026	3	0.1%
Apr 8, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 9, 2026	5	0.2%
Apr 10, 2026	3	0.1%
Apr 11, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 13, 2026	3	0.1%
Apr 14, 2026	6	0.2%
Apr 15, 2026	4	0.2%
Apr 16, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 17, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 18, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 21, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 24, 2026	3	0.1%
Apr 28, 2026	1	0.0%
May 1, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 2, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 3, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 5, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 8, 2026	4	0.2%
Jun 9, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 10, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 12, 2026	4	0.2%
Jun 15, 2026	4	0.2%
Jun 16, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 17, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 18, 2026	9	0.4%
Jun 19, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 22, 2026	10	0.4%
Jun 23, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 24, 2026	4	0.2%
Jun 25, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 26, 2026	12	0.5%
Jun 29, 2026	12	0.5%
Jun 30, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 1, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 2, 2026	6	0.2%
Jul 6, 2026	3	0.1%
Jul 9, 2026	4	0.2%
Jul 10, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 13, 2026	9	0.4%
Jul 14, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 15, 2026	16	0.6%
Jul 16, 2026	34	1.4%
Jul 17, 2026	68	2.7%
Jul 20, 2026	43	1.7%
Jul 21, 2026	8	0.3%
Jul 24, 2026	136	5.5%
Jul 25, 2026	19	0.8%
Jul 31, 2026	1	0.0%
Aug 7, 2026	1	0.0%
Aug 10, 2026	5	0.2%
Aug 11, 2026	5	0.2%
Aug 12, 2026	3	0.1%
Aug 14, 2026	1	0.0%

If you applied in February, look at that block. Nearly every business day from February 2 through February 20 has real approvals, many in the 45 to 78 range. That month is clearly being worked right now.

Use this as a guide, not a promise

Everything here is an average across thousands of cases, and it is more reliable for recent applications than for older ones still in extended review. Your own case can move faster or slower for many reasons, including your background check, an RFE, or your country of origin. It assumes USCIS keeps its current pace, which can change. If your timing is urgent, please talk to an immigration attorney.

Privacy reminder

The estimator does not log anything. No database, no tracking, no analytics. You do not enter a receipt number, your name, your A-number, or anything personal. All it asks for is a date, and it runs entirely in your browser. The code is public: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator

Thank you

Thank you all for following along. To the February applicants especially, this looks like your stretch, and the numbers in that table are real people from nearly every day of your month. To anyone still waiting from earlier: your months are close to complete, which means the remaining cases are getting individual attention rather than sitting behind a large pile. Hoping each of you gets your approval soon.

Calculator: https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/

Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator

TLDR

USCIS approved about 2,484 cases this week and February is now the biggest month at 37 percent, up from 9 percent last week. Last week I said February would likely be next if the pattern held, and it was. December has dropped to just 56 cases and November to 5, so those months look nearly complete. Wait times for the older months are still holding steady rather than climbing. Recent applications continue at about 24 days. The calculator matched the data for a seventh straight week, so only the weekly numbers changed. As always, this is an average, more reliable for recent cases than older ones, and not a promise. Hoping everyone gets approved soon.

Hey everyone. Two clear findings this week, and one of them is genuinely encouraging.

Calculator (updated this week): https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/

Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator

All data sourced from MyCasesHub.

The short version

USCIS approved about 2,142 cases this week, and 54 percent of them were January applications. They are working through January in order and appear to be finishing it. Separately, the wait times for the older months have stopped rising after weeks of climbing, which is the first time that has happened since I started reporting it.

Who got approved this week

You applied in	Cases	Typical wait
Nov 2025	3	260 days
Dec 2025	275	222 days
Jan 2026	1,167	201 days
Feb 2026	197	167 days
Mar 2026	140	137 days
Apr 2026	20	119 days
May 2026	10	72 days
Jun 2026	60	47 days
Jul 2026	255	24 days

January is being worked through in order

Over the last three weeks the pattern has been consistent:

	Jul 20	Jul 27	Aug 3
December share	44%	21%	13%
January share	13%	42%	54%

Two weeks ago was December's turn. Now January is clearly the focus, and within January they have moved to the later part of the month. The week of January 19 had 232 approvals this week, and the week of January 26 had 243. Earlier they were working the first half of the month.

Also worth noting: only 3 November applications appeared this week, down from dozens in earlier weeks. That most likely means November is close to complete.

If the pattern holds, February would be the focus soon. I want to be careful not to promise that, since timing has surprised me before, but that is the direction the data points.

The waits have now slowly stopped climbing

For the last several updates I have reported that the wait times for older months kept rising, which supported what many of you said about your part of the backlog getting harder rather than easier. This week that changed:

Applied in	2 weeks ago	Last week	This week
December	224 days	221 days	222 days
January	191 days	201 days	201 days
February	163 days	170 days	167 days
March	135 days	134 days	137 days

Every one of those is flat now, within a few days either way. Before this, January had climbed from 185 to 191 to 201 over consecutive weeks.

I do not want to oversell one week of data, and it could move again. But a flat line means the people being approved now are waiting about the same as the people approved last week, rather than progressively longer. That is a better sign than what I have been reporting, and I wanted to share it plainly.

Still being careful about what I can and cannot see

The same limitation applies as always: I only see cases that get approved, not the full pile still pending. So I cannot tell you how many people are still waiting in your month, and I will not claim the older backlog is nearly over.

What I can show you is what came through. This week that was 1,167 January applications and 275 December ones, with many individual dates in the table below showing 40, 60, even 198 approvals.

For recent applicants

July applications are still moving quickly, approved in a median of about 24 days. There were sizable batches this week, including 93 approvals for July 10 filings and 91 for July 17. A handful of early August applications were already approved within days.

How the estimate works, quickly

If your application has been in longer than the minimum processing time, currently about three weeks, then cases like yours are being approved around now. If you applied very recently, the estimate is your date plus that minimum time. For older applications still in extended review, the estimate is less reliable, and I want to keep saying that rather than bury it.

On the moving date, since it comes up often: once you are past the minimum wait, the calculator is saying "cases like yours are being approved around now," and it follows the calendar forward until yours lands. Your wait is not growing. I understand that watching it advance daily is discouraging, and that is a flaw in how I show it, not something you are misreading.

What dates got approved over the last 3 weeks (every date listed)

Every single application date, nothing left out. If you see your date, people who applied the same day as you were approved.

Week of July 20, 2026, 2,193 cases approved

Median application date: Jan 9, 2026. Median wait: 193 days.

Application date	Cases	% of week
Jan 3, 2025	1	0.0%
Jul 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Sep 24, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 7, 2025	2	0.1%
Nov 14, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 21, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 22, 2025	2	0.1%
Nov 24, 2025	5	0.2%
Nov 26, 2025	4	0.2%
Nov 27, 2025	11	0.5%
Nov 28, 2025	2	0.1%
Nov 29, 2025	5	0.2%
Nov 30, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 1, 2025	4	0.2%
Dec 2, 2025	20	0.9%
Dec 3, 2025	83	3.8%
Dec 4, 2025	31	1.4%
Dec 5, 2025	94	4.3%
Dec 6, 2025	67	3.1%
Dec 7, 2025	29	1.3%
Dec 8, 2025	101	4.6%
Dec 9, 2025	150	6.8%
Dec 10, 2025	171	7.8%
Dec 11, 2025	66	3.0%
Dec 12, 2025	70	3.2%
Dec 13, 2025	13	0.6%
Dec 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 16, 2025	4	0.2%
Dec 17, 2025	4	0.2%
Dec 18, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 20, 2025	17	0.8%
Dec 22, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 23, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 26, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 27, 2025	19	0.9%
Dec 29, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 30, 2025	9	0.4%
Dec 31, 2025	6	0.3%
Jan 2, 2026	7	0.3%
Jan 3, 2026	6	0.3%
Jan 5, 2026	11	0.5%
Jan 6, 2026	10	0.5%
Jan 7, 2026	19	0.9%
Jan 8, 2026	21	1.0%
Jan 9, 2026	29	1.3%
Jan 10, 2026	15	0.7%
Jan 12, 2026	12	0.5%
Jan 13, 2026	7	0.3%
Jan 14, 2026	13	0.6%
Jan 15, 2026	13	0.6%
Jan 16, 2026	6	0.3%
Jan 17, 2026	28	1.3%
Jan 20, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 21, 2026	4	0.2%
Jan 22, 2026	5	0.2%
Jan 23, 2026	4	0.2%
Jan 24, 2026	11	0.5%
Jan 26, 2026	13	0.6%
Jan 27, 2026	4	0.2%
Jan 28, 2026	9	0.4%
Jan 29, 2026	12	0.5%
Jan 30, 2026	11	0.5%
Jan 31, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 2, 2026	15	0.7%
Feb 3, 2026	13	0.6%
Feb 4, 2026	20	0.9%
Feb 5, 2026	8	0.4%
Feb 6, 2026	13	0.6%
Feb 7, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 9, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 10, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 11, 2026	9	0.4%
Feb 12, 2026	5	0.2%
Feb 13, 2026	5	0.2%
Feb 14, 2026	11	0.5%
Feb 17, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 18, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 19, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 20, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 21, 2026	13	0.6%
Feb 23, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 24, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 25, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 27, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 28, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 2, 2026	8	0.4%
Mar 3, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 4, 2026	11	0.5%
Mar 5, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 6, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 7, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 9, 2026	7	0.3%
Mar 10, 2026	7	0.3%
Mar 11, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 12, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 13, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 14, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 16, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 18, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 19, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 20, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 21, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 24, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 25, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 27, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 28, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 31, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 2, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 3, 2026	4	0.2%
Apr 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 7, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 10, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 13, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 17, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 24, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 25, 2026	1	0.0%
May 1, 2026	1	0.0%
May 2, 2026	1	0.0%
May 5, 2026	2	0.1%
May 7, 2026	1	0.0%
May 14, 2026	1	0.0%
May 15, 2026	2	0.1%
May 18, 2026	1	0.0%
May 19, 2026	1	0.0%
May 20, 2026	11	0.5%
May 21, 2026	2	0.1%
May 22, 2026	4	0.2%
May 23, 2026	1	0.0%
May 26, 2026	9	0.4%
May 27, 2026	1	0.0%
May 28, 2026	4	0.2%
May 29, 2026	13	0.6%
Jun 1, 2026	10	0.5%
Jun 2, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 3, 2026	8	0.4%
Jun 4, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 5, 2026	6	0.3%
Jun 8, 2026	8	0.4%
Jun 9, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 10, 2026	4	0.2%
Jun 11, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 12, 2026	19	0.9%
Jun 15, 2026	13	0.6%
Jun 16, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 17, 2026	15	0.7%
Jun 18, 2026	30	1.4%
Jun 19, 2026	16	0.7%
Jun 20, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 22, 2026	8	0.4%
Jun 23, 2026	13	0.6%
Jun 24, 2026	12	0.5%
Jun 25, 2026	14	0.6%
Jun 26, 2026	108	4.9%
Jun 27, 2026	28	1.3%
Jun 29, 2026	9	0.4%
Jun 30, 2026	3	0.1%
Jul 3, 2026	185	8.4%
Jul 4, 2026	47	2.1%
Jul 8, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 9, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 10, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 13, 2026	3	0.1%
Jul 14, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 15, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 16, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 17, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 20, 2026	7	0.3%
Jul 21, 2026	4	0.2%
Jul 22, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 23, 2026	7	0.3%

Week of July 27, 2026, 2,044 cases approved

Median application date: Jan 12, 2026. Median wait: 199 days.

Application date	Cases	% of week
Feb 11, 2025	1	0.0%
Jul 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 31, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 2, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 5, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 8, 2025	5	0.2%
Dec 9, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 10, 2025	9	0.4%
Dec 11, 2025	42	2.1%
Dec 12, 2025	45	2.2%
Dec 15, 2025	16	0.8%
Dec 16, 2025	6	0.3%
Dec 17, 2025	8	0.4%
Dec 18, 2025	18	0.9%
Dec 19, 2025	23	1.1%
Dec 20, 2025	140	6.8%
Dec 22, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 23, 2025	3	0.1%
Dec 24, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 27, 2025	98	4.8%
Dec 29, 2025	5	0.2%
Dec 30, 2025	3	0.1%
Dec 31, 2025	1	0.0%
Jan 2, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 3, 2026	10	0.5%
Jan 5, 2026	109	5.3%
Jan 6, 2026	98	4.8%
Jan 7, 2026	126	6.2%
Jan 8, 2026	95	4.6%
Jan 9, 2026	105	5.1%
Jan 10, 2026	6	0.3%
Jan 12, 2026	48	2.3%
Jan 13, 2026	24	1.2%
Jan 14, 2026	55	2.7%
Jan 15, 2026	38	1.9%
Jan 16, 2026	71	3.5%
Jan 17, 2026	13	0.6%
Jan 20, 2026	9	0.4%
Jan 21, 2026	7	0.3%
Jan 22, 2026	6	0.3%
Jan 23, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 24, 2026	24	1.2%
Jan 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 28, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 29, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 30, 2026	4	0.2%
Jan 31, 2026	6	0.3%
Feb 2, 2026	10	0.5%
Feb 3, 2026	9	0.4%
Feb 4, 2026	12	0.6%
Feb 5, 2026	6	0.3%
Feb 6, 2026	9	0.4%
Feb 7, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 9, 2026	24	1.2%
Feb 10, 2026	19	0.9%
Feb 11, 2026	13	0.6%
Feb 12, 2026	10	0.5%
Feb 13, 2026	9	0.4%
Feb 14, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 17, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 18, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 19, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 20, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 21, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 23, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 24, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 25, 2026	6	0.3%
Feb 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 28, 2026	15	0.7%
Mar 3, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 5, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 7, 2026	14	0.7%
Mar 9, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 10, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 11, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 13, 2026	7	0.3%
Mar 14, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 16, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 17, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 18, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 19, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 20, 2026	10	0.5%
Mar 21, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 22, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 23, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 24, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 25, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 30, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 31, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 2, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 6, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 7, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 17, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 21, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 24, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 30, 2026	1	0.0%
May 7, 2026	1	0.0%
May 8, 2026	1	0.0%
May 15, 2026	1	0.0%
May 16, 2026	1	0.0%
May 21, 2026	1	0.0%
May 22, 2026	2	0.1%
May 23, 2026	1	0.0%
May 26, 2026	4	0.2%
May 27, 2026	1	0.0%
May 28, 2026	2	0.1%
May 29, 2026	8	0.4%
Jun 1, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 3, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 4, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 5, 2026	14	0.7%
Jun 8, 2026	7	0.3%
Jun 9, 2026	9	0.4%
Jun 10, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 11, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 12, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 15, 2026	9	0.4%
Jun 16, 2026	4	0.2%
Jun 17, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 18, 2026	10	0.5%
Jun 22, 2026	6	0.3%
Jun 23, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 24, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 25, 2026	8	0.4%
Jun 26, 2026	15	0.7%
Jun 27, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 29, 2026	14	0.7%
Jun 30, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 1, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 2, 2026	39	1.9%
Jul 3, 2026	94	4.6%
Jul 4, 2026	20	1.0%
Jul 6, 2026	4	0.2%
Jul 7, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 9, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 10, 2026	137	6.7%
Jul 11, 2026	6	0.3%
Jul 17, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 23, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 24, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 28, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 29, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 30, 2026	4	0.2%

Week of August 3, 2026, 2,142 cases approved

Median application date: Jan 21, 2026. Median wait: 194 days.

Application date	Cases	% of week
Dec 19, 2024	1	0.0%
Jun 4, 2025	1	0.0%
Jul 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Sep 2, 2025	1	0.0%
Sep 30, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 3, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 19, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 20, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 2, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 4, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 12, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 18, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 19, 2025	36	1.7%
Dec 20, 2025	3	0.1%
Dec 22, 2025	42	2.0%
Dec 23, 2025	19	0.9%
Dec 24, 2025	23	1.1%
Dec 26, 2025	19	0.9%
Dec 27, 2025	103	4.8%
Dec 29, 2025	8	0.4%
Dec 30, 2025	10	0.5%
Dec 31, 2025	8	0.4%
Jan 2, 2026	27	1.3%
Jan 3, 2026	198	9.2%
Jan 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 5, 2026	12	0.6%
Jan 6, 2026	11	0.5%
Jan 7, 2026	10	0.5%
Jan 8, 2026	7	0.3%
Jan 9, 2026	5	0.2%
Jan 10, 2026	140	6.5%
Jan 12, 2026	46	2.1%
Jan 13, 2026	22	1.0%
Jan 14, 2026	94	4.4%
Jan 15, 2026	50	2.3%
Jan 16, 2026	52	2.4%
Jan 17, 2026	17	0.8%
Jan 20, 2026	44	2.1%
Jan 21, 2026	56	2.6%
Jan 22, 2026	68	3.2%
Jan 23, 2026	56	2.6%
Jan 24, 2026	8	0.4%
Jan 26, 2026	47	2.2%
Jan 27, 2026	20	0.9%
Jan 28, 2026	36	1.7%
Jan 29, 2026	44	2.1%
Jan 30, 2026	66	3.1%
Jan 31, 2026	30	1.4%
Feb 2, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 4, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 5, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 7, 2026	14	0.7%
Feb 9, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 10, 2026	5	0.2%
Feb 11, 2026	8	0.4%
Feb 12, 2026	6	0.3%
Feb 13, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 14, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 17, 2026	21	1.0%
Feb 18, 2026	25	1.2%
Feb 19, 2026	28	1.3%
Feb 20, 2026	19	0.9%
Feb 23, 2026	7	0.3%
Feb 24, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 25, 2026	9	0.4%
Feb 26, 2026	10	0.5%
Feb 27, 2026	15	0.7%
Feb 28, 2026	9	0.4%
Mar 2, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 5, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 6, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 7, 2026	16	0.7%
Mar 11, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 13, 2026	13	0.6%
Mar 14, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 16, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 17, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 18, 2026	8	0.4%
Mar 19, 2026	7	0.3%
Mar 20, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 21, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 23, 2026	12	0.6%
Mar 24, 2026	8	0.4%
Mar 25, 2026	10	0.5%
Mar 26, 2026	14	0.7%
Mar 27, 2026	17	0.8%
Mar 28, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 30, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 31, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 1, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 2, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 6, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 7, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 8, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 10, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 14, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 15, 2026	3	0.1%
Apr 16, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 22, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 28, 2026	1	0.0%
May 1, 2026	1	0.0%
May 2, 2026	1	0.0%
May 14, 2026	1	0.0%
May 18, 2026	1	0.0%
May 22, 2026	1	0.0%
May 23, 2026	1	0.0%
May 26, 2026	1	0.0%
May 29, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 1, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 5, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 8, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 9, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 11, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 12, 2026	4	0.2%
Jun 15, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 17, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 18, 2026	10	0.5%
Jun 22, 2026	6	0.3%
Jun 23, 2026	7	0.3%
Jun 26, 2026	4	0.2%
Jun 29, 2026	6	0.3%
Jun 30, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 1, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 2, 2026	21	1.0%
Jul 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 6, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 7, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 8, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 9, 2026	12	0.6%
Jul 10, 2026	93	4.3%
Jul 11, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 13, 2026	18	0.8%
Jul 14, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 15, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 17, 2026	91	4.2%
Jul 18, 2026	3	0.1%
Jul 24, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 31, 2026	2	0.1%
Aug 3, 2026	5	0.2%
Aug 4, 2026	2	0.1%
Aug 5, 2026	2	0.1%

If you applied in the second half of January, look at that stretch: January 20 through 31 has real numbers on nearly every business day, 44, 56, 68, 56, 47, 36, 44, 66, 30. That part of the month is clearly being worked right now.

Use this as a guide, not a promise

Everything here is an average across thousands of cases, and it is more reliable for recent applications than for older ones still in extended review. Your own case can move faster or slower for many reasons, including your background check, an RFE, or your country of origin. It assumes USCIS keeps its current pace, which can change. If your timing is urgent, please talk to an immigration attorney.

Privacy reminder

The estimator does not log anything. No database, no tracking, no analytics. You do not enter a receipt number, your name, your A-number, or anything personal. All it asks for is a date, and it runs entirely in your browser. The code is public: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator

Thank you

Thank you all for following along and for keeping me honest. To those of you still waiting from the winter months: your applications are being worked through in real numbers, and this week the waits held steady instead of stretching further, which is the first genuinely better sign I have been able to report in a while. I am hoping each of you gets your approval soon.

Calculator: https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/

Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator

TLDR

USCIS approved about 2,142 cases this week and 54 percent were January applications, with the focus now on the second half of January. November is nearly finished (only 3 cases this week). The bigger news is that the wait times for the older months stopped climbing for the first time in weeks: December held at 222 days, January at 201, February at 167. Before this they were rising steadily. One week is not a trend, but it is a better sign than what I have been reporting. Recent applications are still moving in about 24 days. The calculator math matched again for the sixth week, so only the weekly numbers changed. As always, this is an average, more reliable for recent cases than older ones, and not a promise. Hoping everyone gets approved soon.

Hey everyone. This week's data is worth looking at closely, and I also want to say some things directly to those of you who have been waiting the longest, because you have been right to push back. Also, apologies to everyone for taking so long, we had a family medical emergency that we were taking care of that's all fine now and had to take some time to sort with that before I could focus again on this with my full attention.

Calculator (updated this week): https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/

Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator

All data sourced from MyCasesHub.

The short version

USCIS approved about 2,193 cases this week, and almost half of them were December applications. This was a week focused heavily on the older backlog rather than new cases. The estimate math still matched the data, so the calculator did not need changes, but I want to be more careful and honest this week about what the numbers do and do not tell us, especially for those of you still waiting from late last year.

Who got approved this week

You applied in	Cases	Typical wait
Nov 2025	35	236 days
Dec 2025	966	224 days
Jan 2026	275	191 days
Feb 2026	145	163 days
Mar 2026	88	135 days
Apr 2026	12	104 days
May 2026	55	59 days
Jun 2026	340	28 days
Jul 2026	274	19 days

December was 44 percent of the entire week. This was a December week, plainly. USCIS put most of its effort into that part of the backlog.

Some honest words for those waiting from late last year

Over the last couple of updates, several of you who applied in November, December, and January pushed back on my wording, and you were right. I have been describing the backlog as "almost done" and "the final stretch," and while that is true for the overall averages, it is not true for your experience, and it was not fair of me to keep framing it that way. So let me be straight about it.

First, an important limitation I should have stated more clearly all along: I only see cases that get approved. The data I use shows me approvals, not the full pile of cases still pending. So when I say the backlog is shrinking, I am inferring that from approval numbers, and I genuinely cannot see how many of you are still waiting. Your read, that plenty of people are still stuck, fits the same data I have. I should have said that instead of always choosing the hopeful version.

Second, here is a number that supports what you have been saying rather than what I have been saying. The wait time for the older months keeps climbing. December cases approved this week waited a median of 224 days, up from around 214 a couple weeks ago. November is at 236. The people from those months getting approved now are waiting longer than the people from those same months who got approved earlier. That is consistent with exactly what many of you described: the cases left in your group are the ones that take more time, most likely the ones finishing the extra background check review that applies to applications filed before late April.

So to be clear: if you are still waiting from late last year, you are not imagining it, and it is not just bad luck in a nearly finished process. Your part of the backlog is real, it is taking longer, and I am going to stop wording these posts as if it is basically over. That was a fair criticism and I am taking it.

What I can tell you honestly is that your group is still being approved every week. This week alone, nearly a thousand December cases came through. That is a real, large number, and December applications from many different dates got approved, which you can see in the table below. I hope that offers something concrete to hold onto, without me overselling it.

About the calculator and the moving date

A lot of you have pointed out that the estimate keeps moving forward day by day, and that it feels like backtracking. I want to explain it honestly, and also own that it is a flaw in how I show it.

Once your application is past the minimum processing time, the calculator is really saying "cases like yours are being approved around now." Because it always calculates from today, that date follows the calendar forward until your approval actually lands. Your wait is not growing. The tool is saying "still now" and moving with the days. But I completely understand that when you are checking it daily while waiting, watching the date advance feels discouraging rather than helpful. That is on me, not on you, and I am working on a clearer way to show it.

How the estimate works, quickly

Since USCIS has mostly caught up on the newer cases, the estimate comes down to two things. If your application has been in longer than the minimum processing time, currently about three weeks, then cases like yours are being approved around now. If you applied very recently, the estimate is your date plus that minimum time. For older applications still in extended review, the estimate is less reliable, and I want to be upfront about that.

What dates got approved over the last 3 weeks (every date listed)

As always, every single application date, nothing left out. If you see your date, people who applied the same day as you were approved.

Week of July 6, 2026, 2,445 cases approved

Median application date: Jan 7, 2026. Median wait: 182 days.

Application date	Cases	% of week
Mar 8, 2024	1	0.0%
Feb 13, 2025	1	0.0%
May 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Jun 24, 2025	1	0.0%
Jul 30, 2025	1	0.0%
Sep 11, 2025	1	0.0%
Sep 16, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 21, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 14, 2025	3	0.1%
Nov 18, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 19, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 20, 2025	2	0.1%
Nov 21, 2025	34	1.4%
Nov 22, 2025	14	0.6%
Nov 23, 2025	8	0.3%
Nov 24, 2025	9	0.4%
Nov 25, 2025	100	4.1%
Nov 26, 2025	182	7.4%
Nov 27, 2025	12	0.5%
Nov 28, 2025	13	0.5%
Nov 29, 2025	66	2.7%
Nov 30, 2025	10	0.4%
Dec 1, 2025	59	2.4%
Dec 2, 2025	73	3.0%
Dec 3, 2025	62	2.5%
Dec 4, 2025	60	2.5%
Dec 5, 2025	32	1.3%
Dec 6, 2025	33	1.3%
Dec 7, 2025	20	0.8%
Dec 8, 2025	41	1.7%
Dec 9, 2025	67	2.7%
Dec 10, 2025	60	2.5%
Dec 11, 2025	40	1.6%
Dec 12, 2025	36	1.5%
Dec 13, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 15, 2025	15	0.6%
Dec 16, 2025	7	0.3%
Dec 17, 2025	10	0.4%
Dec 18, 2025	11	0.4%
Dec 19, 2025	24	1.0%
Dec 20, 2025	25	1.0%
Dec 22, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 27, 2025	22	0.9%
Dec 30, 2025	2	0.1%
Jan 2, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 3, 2026	12	0.5%
Jan 5, 2026	11	0.4%
Jan 6, 2026	24	1.0%
Jan 7, 2026	13	0.5%
Jan 8, 2026	15	0.6%
Jan 9, 2026	16	0.7%
Jan 10, 2026	7	0.3%
Jan 12, 2026	11	0.4%
Jan 13, 2026	5	0.2%
Jan 14, 2026	26	1.1%
Jan 15, 2026	11	0.4%
Jan 16, 2026	11	0.4%
Jan 17, 2026	7	0.3%
Jan 20, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 21, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 22, 2026	8	0.3%
Jan 23, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 24, 2026	17	0.7%
Jan 25, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 27, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 29, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 30, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 31, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 3, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 4, 2026	6	0.2%
Feb 5, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 6, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 7, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 9, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 10, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 11, 2026	8	0.3%
Feb 12, 2026	8	0.3%
Feb 13, 2026	8	0.3%
Feb 14, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 15, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 17, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 18, 2026	6	0.2%
Feb 19, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 21, 2026	6	0.2%
Feb 25, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 28, 2026	10	0.4%
Mar 2, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 4, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 5, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 6, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 7, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 9, 2026	6	0.2%
Mar 10, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 11, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 13, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 14, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 16, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 17, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 18, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 19, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 20, 2026	7	0.3%
Mar 21, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 23, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 24, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 25, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 26, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 27, 2026	22	0.9%
Mar 28, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 30, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 31, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 1, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 2, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 3, 2026	5	0.2%
Apr 4, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 6, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 7, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 8, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 9, 2026	3	0.1%
Apr 10, 2026	10	0.4%
Apr 13, 2026	7	0.3%
Apr 14, 2026	4	0.2%
Apr 15, 2026	3	0.1%
Apr 16, 2026	8	0.3%
Apr 17, 2026	8	0.3%
Apr 20, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 21, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 22, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 23, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 24, 2026	6	0.2%
Apr 25, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 30, 2026	2	0.1%
May 1, 2026	4	0.2%
May 4, 2026	4	0.2%
May 5, 2026	2	0.1%
May 6, 2026	4	0.2%
May 7, 2026	4	0.2%
May 8, 2026	6	0.2%
May 9, 2026	3	0.1%
May 11, 2026	4	0.2%
May 12, 2026	3	0.1%
May 13, 2026	3	0.1%
May 14, 2026	7	0.3%
May 15, 2026	9	0.4%
May 18, 2026	6	0.2%
May 19, 2026	4	0.2%
May 20, 2026	6	0.2%
May 21, 2026	8	0.3%
May 22, 2026	30	1.2%
May 23, 2026	4	0.2%
May 26, 2026	14	0.6%
May 27, 2026	4	0.2%
May 28, 2026	9	0.4%
May 29, 2026	42	1.7%
Jun 1, 2026	20	0.8%
Jun 2, 2026	13	0.5%
Jun 3, 2026	22	0.9%
Jun 4, 2026	11	0.4%
Jun 5, 2026	26	1.1%
Jun 8, 2026	6	0.2%
Jun 9, 2026	12	0.5%
Jun 10, 2026	7	0.3%
Jun 11, 2026	17	0.7%
Jun 12, 2026	215	8.8%
Jun 13, 2026	29	1.2%
Jun 15, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 18, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 19, 2026	162	6.6%
Jun 20, 2026	55	2.2%
Jun 22, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 24, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 29, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 2, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 6, 2026	7	0.3%
Jul 7, 2026	8	0.3%
Jul 8, 2026	7	0.3%

Week of July 13, 2026, 3,075 cases approved

Median application date: Mar 27, 2026. Median wait: 108 days.

Application date	Cases	% of week
Feb 18, 2025	1	0.0%
Mar 3, 2025	1	0.0%
Mar 6, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 10, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 23, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 28, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 13, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 14, 2025	2	0.1%
Nov 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 17, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 21, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 22, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 23, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 24, 2025	15	0.5%
Nov 25, 2025	28	0.9%
Nov 26, 2025	27	0.9%
Nov 27, 2025	28	0.9%
Nov 28, 2025	45	1.5%
Nov 29, 2025	154	5.0%
Nov 30, 2025	10	0.3%
Dec 1, 2025	128	4.2%
Dec 2, 2025	147	4.8%
Dec 3, 2025	89	2.9%
Dec 4, 2025	107	3.5%
Dec 5, 2025	23	0.7%
Dec 6, 2025	13	0.4%
Dec 8, 2025	4	0.1%
Dec 9, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 10, 2025	3	0.1%
Dec 13, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 15, 2025	4	0.1%
Dec 16, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 19, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 20, 2025	38	1.2%
Dec 22, 2025	27	0.9%
Dec 23, 2025	10	0.3%
Dec 24, 2025	9	0.3%
Dec 26, 2025	19	0.6%
Dec 27, 2025	6	0.2%
Dec 29, 2025	9	0.3%
Dec 30, 2025	6	0.2%
Dec 31, 2025	9	0.3%
Jan 2, 2026	16	0.5%
Jan 3, 2026	38	1.2%
Jan 5, 2026	17	0.6%
Jan 6, 2026	18	0.6%
Jan 7, 2026	11	0.4%
Jan 8, 2026	13	0.4%
Jan 9, 2026	14	0.5%
Jan 10, 2026	35	1.1%
Jan 12, 2026	6	0.2%
Jan 13, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 14, 2026	9	0.3%
Jan 15, 2026	8	0.3%
Jan 16, 2026	6	0.2%
Jan 17, 2026	8	0.3%
Jan 20, 2026	12	0.4%
Jan 21, 2026	16	0.5%
Jan 22, 2026	19	0.6%
Jan 23, 2026	17	0.6%
Jan 24, 2026	6	0.2%
Jan 26, 2026	5	0.2%
Jan 27, 2026	7	0.2%
Jan 28, 2026	5	0.2%
Jan 29, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 30, 2026	13	0.4%
Jan 31, 2026	13	0.4%
Feb 3, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 5, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 6, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 7, 2026	7	0.2%
Feb 9, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 10, 2026	4	0.1%
Feb 11, 2026	4	0.1%
Feb 12, 2026	6	0.2%
Feb 13, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 14, 2026	7	0.2%
Feb 17, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 18, 2026	7	0.2%
Feb 19, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 20, 2026	6	0.2%
Feb 21, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 23, 2026	4	0.1%
Feb 24, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 25, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 26, 2026	8	0.3%
Feb 27, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 28, 2026	9	0.3%
Mar 2, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 5, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 6, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 7, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 9, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 10, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 11, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 12, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 13, 2026	24	0.8%
Mar 14, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 16, 2026	7	0.2%
Mar 17, 2026	8	0.3%
Mar 18, 2026	15	0.5%
Mar 19, 2026	7	0.2%
Mar 20, 2026	31	1.0%
Mar 21, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 23, 2026	12	0.4%
Mar 24, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 25, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 26, 2026	21	0.7%
Mar 27, 2026	110	3.6%
Mar 28, 2026	29	0.9%
Mar 30, 2026	4	0.1%
Apr 3, 2026	161	5.2%
Apr 4, 2026	31	1.0%
Apr 5, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 8, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 9, 2026	7	0.2%
Apr 10, 2026	25	0.8%
Apr 11, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 13, 2026	33	1.1%
Apr 14, 2026	42	1.4%
Apr 15, 2026	43	1.4%
Apr 16, 2026	52	1.7%
Apr 17, 2026	52	1.7%
Apr 18, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 19, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 20, 2026	28	0.9%
Apr 21, 2026	37	1.2%
Apr 22, 2026	31	1.0%
Apr 23, 2026	34	1.1%
Apr 24, 2026	42	1.4%
Apr 29, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 30, 2026	2	0.1%
May 1, 2026	1	0.0%
May 2, 2026	1	0.0%
May 5, 2026	1	0.0%
May 7, 2026	1	0.0%
May 8, 2026	2	0.1%
May 11, 2026	1	0.0%
May 12, 2026	1	0.0%
May 14, 2026	5	0.2%
May 15, 2026	3	0.1%
May 18, 2026	5	0.2%
May 19, 2026	2	0.1%
May 20, 2026	9	0.3%
May 21, 2026	7	0.2%
May 22, 2026	22	0.7%
May 23, 2026	1	0.0%
May 25, 2026	1	0.0%
May 26, 2026	13	0.4%
May 27, 2026	1	0.0%
May 28, 2026	2	0.1%
May 29, 2026	18	0.6%
Jun 1, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 2, 2026	10	0.3%
Jun 3, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 4, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 5, 2026	15	0.5%
Jun 8, 2026	8	0.3%
Jun 9, 2026	12	0.4%
Jun 10, 2026	11	0.4%
Jun 11, 2026	17	0.6%
Jun 12, 2026	31	1.0%
Jun 15, 2026	11	0.4%
Jun 16, 2026	6	0.2%
Jun 17, 2026	19	0.6%
Jun 18, 2026	45	1.5%
Jun 19, 2026	149	4.8%
Jun 20, 2026	28	0.9%
Jun 22, 2026	22	0.7%
Jun 23, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 24, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 26, 2026	170	5.5%
Jun 27, 2026	51	1.7%
Jun 29, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 30, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 3, 2026	7	0.2%
Jul 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 7, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 9, 2026	9	0.3%
Jul 10, 2026	8	0.3%
Jul 13, 2026	4	0.1%
Jul 14, 2026	9	0.3%
Jul 15, 2026	7	0.2%
Jul 16, 2026	3	0.1%

Week of July 20, 2026, 2,193 cases approved

Median application date: Jan 9, 2026. Median wait: 193 days.

Application date	Cases	% of week
Jan 3, 2025	1	0.0%
Jul 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Sep 24, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 7, 2025	2	0.1%
Nov 14, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 21, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 22, 2025	2	0.1%
Nov 24, 2025	5	0.2%
Nov 26, 2025	4	0.2%
Nov 27, 2025	11	0.5%
Nov 28, 2025	2	0.1%
Nov 29, 2025	5	0.2%
Nov 30, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 1, 2025	4	0.2%
Dec 2, 2025	20	0.9%
Dec 3, 2025	83	3.8%
Dec 4, 2025	31	1.4%
Dec 5, 2025	94	4.3%
Dec 6, 2025	67	3.1%
Dec 7, 2025	29	1.3%
Dec 8, 2025	101	4.6%
Dec 9, 2025	150	6.8%
Dec 10, 2025	171	7.8%
Dec 11, 2025	66	3.0%
Dec 12, 2025	70	3.2%
Dec 13, 2025	13	0.6%
Dec 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 16, 2025	4	0.2%
Dec 17, 2025	4	0.2%
Dec 18, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 20, 2025	17	0.8%
Dec 22, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 23, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 26, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 27, 2025	19	0.9%
Dec 29, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 30, 2025	9	0.4%
Dec 31, 2025	6	0.3%
Jan 2, 2026	7	0.3%
Jan 3, 2026	6	0.3%
Jan 5, 2026	11	0.5%
Jan 6, 2026	10	0.5%
Jan 7, 2026	19	0.9%
Jan 8, 2026	21	1.0%
Jan 9, 2026	29	1.3%
Jan 10, 2026	15	0.7%
Jan 12, 2026	12	0.5%
Jan 13, 2026	7	0.3%
Jan 14, 2026	13	0.6%
Jan 15, 2026	13	0.6%
Jan 16, 2026	6	0.3%
Jan 17, 2026	28	1.3%
Jan 20, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 21, 2026	4	0.2%
Jan 22, 2026	5	0.2%
Jan 23, 2026	4	0.2%
Jan 24, 2026	11	0.5%
Jan 26, 2026	13	0.6%
Jan 27, 2026	4	0.2%
Jan 28, 2026	9	0.4%
Jan 29, 2026	12	0.5%
Jan 30, 2026	11	0.5%
Jan 31, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 2, 2026	15	0.7%
Feb 3, 2026	13	0.6%
Feb 4, 2026	20	0.9%
Feb 5, 2026	8	0.4%
Feb 6, 2026	13	0.6%
Feb 7, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 9, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 10, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 11, 2026	9	0.4%
Feb 12, 2026	5	0.2%
Feb 13, 2026	5	0.2%
Feb 14, 2026	11	0.5%
Feb 17, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 18, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 19, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 20, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 21, 2026	13	0.6%
Feb 23, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 24, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 25, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 27, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 28, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 2, 2026	8	0.4%
Mar 3, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 4, 2026	11	0.5%
Mar 5, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 6, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 7, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 9, 2026	7	0.3%
Mar 10, 2026	7	0.3%
Mar 11, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 12, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 13, 2026	6	0.3%
Mar 14, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 16, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 18, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 19, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 20, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 21, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 24, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 25, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 27, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 28, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 31, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 2, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 3, 2026	4	0.2%
Apr 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 7, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 10, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 13, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 17, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 24, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 25, 2026	1	0.0%
May 1, 2026	1	0.0%
May 2, 2026	1	0.0%
May 5, 2026	2	0.1%
May 7, 2026	1	0.0%
May 14, 2026	1	0.0%
May 15, 2026	2	0.1%
May 18, 2026	1	0.0%
May 19, 2026	1	0.0%
May 20, 2026	11	0.5%
May 21, 2026	2	0.1%
May 22, 2026	4	0.2%
May 23, 2026	1	0.0%
May 26, 2026	9	0.4%
May 27, 2026	1	0.0%
May 28, 2026	4	0.2%
May 29, 2026	13	0.6%
Jun 1, 2026	10	0.5%
Jun 2, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 3, 2026	8	0.4%
Jun 4, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 5, 2026	6	0.3%
Jun 8, 2026	8	0.4%
Jun 9, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 10, 2026	4	0.2%
Jun 11, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 12, 2026	19	0.9%
Jun 15, 2026	13	0.6%
Jun 16, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 17, 2026	15	0.7%
Jun 18, 2026	30	1.4%
Jun 19, 2026	16	0.7%
Jun 20, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 22, 2026	8	0.4%
Jun 23, 2026	13	0.6%
Jun 24, 2026	12	0.5%
Jun 25, 2026	14	0.6%
Jun 26, 2026	108	4.9%
Jun 27, 2026	28	1.3%
Jun 29, 2026	9	0.4%
Jun 30, 2026	3	0.1%
Jul 3, 2026	185	8.4%
Jul 4, 2026	47	2.1%
Jul 8, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 9, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 10, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 13, 2026	3	0.1%
Jul 14, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 15, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 16, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 17, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 20, 2026	7	0.3%
Jul 21, 2026	4	0.2%
Jul 22, 2026	5	0.2%
Jul 23, 2026	7	0.3%

Look at the December block this week. Dozens of individual December dates, many with 60, 100, even 170 approvals each. If you applied in December, your exact date very likely appears above with real approvals next to it.

Use this as a guide, not a promise

Everything here is an average across thousands of cases, and as I said above, it is more reliable for recent applications than for older ones still in extended review. Your own case can be faster or slower for many reasons, including your background check, an RFE, or your country of origin. It assumes USCIS keeps its current pace, which can change. If your timing is urgent, please talk to an immigration attorney.

Privacy reminder

The estimator does not log anything. No database, no tracking, no analytics. You do not enter a receipt number, your name, your A-number, or anything personal. All it asks for is a date, and it runs entirely in your browser. The code is public: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator

Thank you

Thank you all, and a real thank you to those of you who pushed back on my wording these past weeks. It made these posts more honest. To everyone still waiting from late last year: your part of the backlog is real, you are still being approved every week, and I am rooting for each of you. I hope it comes soon.

Calculator: https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/

Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator

TLDR

USCIS approved about 2,193 cases this week, and almost half were December applications, so this was a week focused on the older backlog. I also want to be more honest than I have been: I only see approvals, not the full pool of pending cases, so my read that the backlog is nearly done is an inference, and those of you still waiting from late last year are right that your part is not over. The older-month wait times are still climbing (December is now around 224 days), which supports that. Your group is still being approved every week though, nearly a thousand December cases this week alone. The calculator math still matched, so only the weekly numbers changed. As always, this is an average, more reliable for recent cases than older ones, and not a promise. Hoping everyone gets approved soon.

Hey everyone. Calmer week this time, which is a good sign. Here is what the data shows.

Calculator (updated this week): https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/

Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator

All data sourced from MyCasesHub.

The short version

USCIS approved about 3,075 cases this week, similar to last week. The pattern is now settling into a steady rhythm: the last of the older backlog (November, December, January) keeps clearing, and fresh applications from June and July are being approved in about three weeks. The calculator's estimate has matched the real data three weeks in a row now, so nothing needed to change this week except loading the newest numbers.

Who got approved this week

You applied in	Cases	Typical wait
Nov 2025	315	227 days
Dec 2025	656	224 days
Jan 2026	317	185 days
Feb 2026	81	146 days
Mar 2026	303	109 days
Apr 2026	627	89 days
May 2026	97	53 days
Jun 2026	623	24 days
Jul 2026	50	3 days

You can see both ends of the process in one table. Older cases from late last year are still being worked through at the top, and brand new applications from this month are already getting approved at the bottom, some within days.

What this steadier pace means

For a while there, USCIS was clearing enormous waves, 7,000 and 8,000 cases in a week. Now it has settled to around 3,000, and I think that is simply because the huge middle of the backlog is mostly done. February through early April, which were the bulk of the waiting cases a month ago, have largely been completed. What is left each week is the two ends: the remaining older cases finishing their reviews, and the steady flow of new applications coming through quickly.

In plain terms, the big rush is over because most people have already been approved. What remains is a more normal, steady pace.

For anyone still waiting from November through January

I know this is the group that is having the hardest time, and I want to speak to you directly and honestly.

You are still being approved, in real numbers, every week. This week alone, nearly a thousand cases from November and December came through. If you look in the table below, you will see dozens of individual dates from late November and December with real approvals next to them.

My understanding of why your group takes longer, and this is my read of the data and the public policy, not something USCIS has confirmed, is that applications filed before late April had to go through the newer background check process a second time, on top of the checks done when you first applied. Newer applications only go through the new process once. That extra step is most likely what stretches the timeline for the earlier filings, especially any case that needs a manual review or a resubmitted fingerprint.

None of that means anything is wrong with your case. It means you are in the part of the group that takes a little more time, and that group gets smaller every single week. Based on everything the data shows, your turn is close. I know its hard to completely read this and say "you're not the one in our situation" which is true, I'm not but I will remind everyone why I created the calculator in the first place. I made it for my fiancée. She submitted Jan 5 and waited months not knowing anything, and watching that stress is why I built it. She got approved June 25, on my birthday, which felt like a blessing. Every week I pull fresh approval data so it shows what's really happening, not guesses. It's the median = average case, so it's a guide, not a promise. But I promise when I say I'm trying my best to make this as accurate as I can, not for any malicious reason than just to help others who were in my fiancée's situation.

A quick word on the calculator changing

Some of you have pointed out that I have changed the calculator several times, and that is true. I want to explain why, because it is a fair thing to ask about.

USCIS changed how they process cases several times this year. They went from one slow line, to a split system, to a huge catch-up, all within a few months. Each time the reality changed, I updated the calculator to match it. A tool that stayed the same while the real process changed underneath it would just be confidently wrong. I would rather adjust it honestly and explain each change than leave it giving numbers I know are outdated.

The good news is that for the last five weeks, the process has been stable, and so has the calculator. Its estimates have matched what actually happened, five weeks running.

How the estimate works, quickly

Since USCIS has caught up, the estimate comes down to two simple things. If your application has been in the system longer than the minimum processing time, which is currently about three weeks, then you are in the current wave and your approval should come around now. If you applied very recently, the estimate is your date plus that minimum time.

One thing worth knowing: the calculator updates itself day by day and always estimates from today. So if you check it daily while waiting, the date can appear to move forward. That does not mean your wait is growing. It means the calculator is still saying "any day now" and following the calendar with you until your approval lands. I know that can feel discouraging when you are watching it closely, and I am sorry for that. It is a limitation of showing a moving target.

What dates got approved over the last 3 weeks (every date listed)

As always, every single application date is listed, nothing left out. If you see your date here, people who applied the same day as you were approved.

Week of June 29, 2026, 8,833 cases approved

Median application date: Mar 26, 2026. Median wait: 96 days.

Application date	Cases	% of week
Apr 8, 2025	1	0.0%
Jun 27, 2025	1	0.0%
Jul 25, 2025	1	0.0%
Aug 27, 2025	1	0.0%
Aug 31, 2025	1	0.0%
Sep 4, 2025	1	0.0%
Sep 18, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 1, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 21, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 22, 2025	2	0.0%
Oct 23, 2025	2	0.0%
Oct 28, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 31, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 1, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 3, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 5, 2025	2	0.0%
Nov 6, 2025	2	0.0%
Nov 7, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 8, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 11, 2025	2	0.0%
Nov 13, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 14, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 17, 2025	2	0.0%
Nov 19, 2025	2	0.0%
Nov 20, 2025	2	0.0%
Nov 21, 2025	3	0.0%
Nov 22, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 24, 2025	17	0.2%
Nov 25, 2025	27	0.3%
Nov 26, 2025	2	0.0%
Nov 28, 2025	2	0.0%
Nov 29, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 1, 2025	7	0.1%
Dec 2, 2025	3	0.0%
Dec 3, 2025	3	0.0%
Dec 4, 2025	4	0.0%
Dec 5, 2025	11	0.1%
Dec 6, 2025	2	0.0%
Dec 8, 2025	9	0.1%
Dec 9, 2025	13	0.1%
Dec 10, 2025	11	0.1%
Dec 11, 2025	12	0.1%
Dec 12, 2025	31	0.4%
Dec 16, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 20, 2025	7	0.1%
Dec 22, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 27, 2025	2	0.0%
Dec 29, 2025	2	0.0%
Dec 30, 2025	1	0.0%
Jan 3, 2026	5	0.1%
Jan 5, 2026	12	0.1%
Jan 6, 2026	4	0.0%
Jan 7, 2026	9	0.1%
Jan 8, 2026	9	0.1%
Jan 9, 2026	5	0.1%
Jan 10, 2026	14	0.2%
Jan 12, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 13, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 14, 2026	2	0.0%
Jan 15, 2026	2	0.0%
Jan 16, 2026	2	0.0%
Jan 17, 2026	15	0.2%
Jan 20, 2026	7	0.1%
Jan 21, 2026	4	0.0%
Jan 22, 2026	2	0.0%
Jan 23, 2026	2	0.0%
Jan 24, 2026	3	0.0%
Jan 26, 2026	4	0.0%
Jan 27, 2026	3	0.0%
Jan 28, 2026	4	0.0%
Jan 29, 2026	11	0.1%
Jan 30, 2026	19	0.2%
Jan 31, 2026	8	0.1%
Feb 2, 2026	22	0.2%
Feb 3, 2026	10	0.1%
Feb 4, 2026	33	0.4%
Feb 5, 2026	23	0.3%
Feb 6, 2026	31	0.4%
Feb 7, 2026	142	1.6%
Feb 9, 2026	23	0.3%
Feb 10, 2026	5	0.1%
Feb 11, 2026	15	0.2%
Feb 12, 2026	25	0.3%
Feb 13, 2026	39	0.4%
Feb 14, 2026	275	3.1%
Feb 17, 2026	24	0.3%
Feb 18, 2026	16	0.2%
Feb 19, 2026	11	0.1%
Feb 20, 2026	19	0.2%
Feb 21, 2026	222	2.5%
Feb 22, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 23, 2026	77	0.9%
Feb 24, 2026	74	0.8%
Feb 25, 2026	78	0.9%
Feb 26, 2026	78	0.9%
Feb 27, 2026	81	0.9%
Feb 28, 2026	206	2.3%
Mar 1, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 2, 2026	90	1.0%
Mar 3, 2026	94	1.1%
Mar 4, 2026	110	1.2%
Mar 5, 2026	86	1.0%
Mar 6, 2026	118	1.3%
Mar 7, 2026	179	2.0%
Mar 9, 2026	109	1.2%
Mar 10, 2026	75	0.8%
Mar 11, 2026	72	0.8%
Mar 12, 2026	74	0.8%
Mar 13, 2026	403	4.6%
Mar 14, 2026	92	1.0%
Mar 16, 2026	90	1.0%
Mar 17, 2026	86	1.0%
Mar 18, 2026	92	1.0%
Mar 19, 2026	84	1.0%
Mar 20, 2026	284	3.2%
Mar 21, 2026	69	0.8%
Mar 22, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 23, 2026	120	1.4%
Mar 24, 2026	90	1.0%
Mar 25, 2026	93	1.1%
Mar 26, 2026	139	1.6%
Mar 27, 2026	379	4.3%
Mar 28, 2026	74	0.8%
Mar 29, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 30, 2026	95	1.1%
Mar 31, 2026	95	1.1%
Apr 1, 2026	91	1.0%
Apr 2, 2026	90	1.0%
Apr 3, 2026	363	4.1%
Apr 4, 2026	46	0.5%
Apr 6, 2026	86	1.0%
Apr 7, 2026	81	0.9%
Apr 8, 2026	69	0.8%
Apr 9, 2026	12	0.1%
Apr 10, 2026	47	0.5%
Apr 11, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 13, 2026	79	0.9%
Apr 14, 2026	89	1.0%
Apr 15, 2026	90	1.0%
Apr 16, 2026	94	1.1%
Apr 17, 2026	80	0.9%
Apr 18, 2026	4	0.0%
Apr 20, 2026	54	0.6%
Apr 21, 2026	66	0.7%
Apr 22, 2026	55	0.6%
Apr 23, 2026	74	0.8%
Apr 24, 2026	41	0.5%
Apr 25, 2026	3	0.0%
Apr 27, 2026	4	0.0%
Apr 28, 2026	5	0.1%
Apr 29, 2026	4	0.0%
Apr 30, 2026	10	0.1%
May 1, 2026	15	0.2%
May 4, 2026	15	0.2%
May 5, 2026	3	0.0%
May 6, 2026	9	0.1%
May 7, 2026	8	0.1%
May 8, 2026	12	0.1%
May 11, 2026	14	0.2%
May 12, 2026	5	0.1%
May 13, 2026	15	0.2%
May 14, 2026	12	0.1%
May 15, 2026	26	0.3%
May 16, 2026	2	0.0%
May 18, 2026	17	0.2%
May 19, 2026	25	0.3%
May 20, 2026	12	0.1%
May 21, 2026	26	0.3%
May 22, 2026	80	0.9%
May 23, 2026	5	0.1%
May 26, 2026	56	0.6%
May 27, 2026	17	0.2%
May 28, 2026	30	0.3%
May 29, 2026	456	5.2%
May 30, 2026	120	1.4%
Jun 1, 2026	22	0.2%
Jun 2, 2026	16	0.2%
Jun 3, 2026	22	0.2%
Jun 4, 2026	5	0.1%
Jun 5, 2026	550	6.2%
Jun 6, 2026	99	1.1%
Jun 8, 2026	5	0.1%
Jun 9, 2026	2	0.0%
Jun 11, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 12, 2026	240	2.7%
Jun 13, 2026	21	0.2%
Jun 15, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 16, 2026	10	0.1%
Jun 17, 2026	7	0.1%
Jun 18, 2026	9	0.1%
Jun 19, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 22, 2026	7	0.1%
Jun 23, 2026	4	0.0%
Jun 24, 2026	4	0.0%
Jun 25, 2026	3	0.0%
Jun 26, 2026	6	0.1%
Jun 29, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 30, 2026	1	0.0%

Week of July 6, 2026, 2,445 cases approved

Median application date: Jan 7, 2026. Median wait: 182 days.

Application date	Cases	% of week
Mar 8, 2024	1	0.0%
Feb 13, 2025	1	0.0%
May 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Jun 24, 2025	1	0.0%
Jul 30, 2025	1	0.0%
Sep 11, 2025	1	0.0%
Sep 16, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 21, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 14, 2025	3	0.1%
Nov 18, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 19, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 20, 2025	2	0.1%
Nov 21, 2025	34	1.4%
Nov 22, 2025	14	0.6%
Nov 23, 2025	8	0.3%
Nov 24, 2025	9	0.4%
Nov 25, 2025	100	4.1%
Nov 26, 2025	182	7.4%
Nov 27, 2025	12	0.5%
Nov 28, 2025	13	0.5%
Nov 29, 2025	66	2.7%
Nov 30, 2025	10	0.4%
Dec 1, 2025	59	2.4%
Dec 2, 2025	73	3.0%
Dec 3, 2025	62	2.5%
Dec 4, 2025	60	2.5%
Dec 5, 2025	32	1.3%
Dec 6, 2025	33	1.3%
Dec 7, 2025	20	0.8%
Dec 8, 2025	41	1.7%
Dec 9, 2025	67	2.7%
Dec 10, 2025	60	2.5%
Dec 11, 2025	40	1.6%
Dec 12, 2025	36	1.5%
Dec 13, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 15, 2025	15	0.6%
Dec 16, 2025	7	0.3%
Dec 17, 2025	10	0.4%
Dec 18, 2025	11	0.4%
Dec 19, 2025	24	1.0%
Dec 20, 2025	25	1.0%
Dec 22, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 27, 2025	22	0.9%
Dec 30, 2025	2	0.1%
Jan 2, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 3, 2026	12	0.5%
Jan 5, 2026	11	0.4%
Jan 6, 2026	24	1.0%
Jan 7, 2026	13	0.5%
Jan 8, 2026	15	0.6%
Jan 9, 2026	16	0.7%
Jan 10, 2026	7	0.3%
Jan 12, 2026	11	0.4%
Jan 13, 2026	5	0.2%
Jan 14, 2026	26	1.1%
Jan 15, 2026	11	0.4%
Jan 16, 2026	11	0.4%
Jan 17, 2026	7	0.3%
Jan 20, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 21, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 22, 2026	8	0.3%
Jan 23, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 24, 2026	17	0.7%
Jan 25, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 27, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 29, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 30, 2026	1	0.0%
Jan 31, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 3, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 4, 2026	6	0.2%
Feb 5, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 6, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 7, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 9, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 10, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 11, 2026	8	0.3%
Feb 12, 2026	8	0.3%
Feb 13, 2026	8	0.3%
Feb 14, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 15, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 17, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 18, 2026	6	0.2%
Feb 19, 2026	4	0.2%
Feb 21, 2026	6	0.2%
Feb 25, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 28, 2026	10	0.4%
Mar 2, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 4, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 5, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 6, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 7, 2026	4	0.2%
Mar 9, 2026	6	0.2%
Mar 10, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 11, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 13, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 14, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 16, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 17, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 18, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 19, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 20, 2026	7	0.3%
Mar 21, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 23, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 24, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 25, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 26, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 27, 2026	22	0.9%
Mar 28, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 30, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 31, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 1, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 2, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 3, 2026	5	0.2%
Apr 4, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 6, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 7, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 8, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 9, 2026	3	0.1%
Apr 10, 2026	10	0.4%
Apr 13, 2026	7	0.3%
Apr 14, 2026	4	0.2%
Apr 15, 2026	3	0.1%
Apr 16, 2026	8	0.3%
Apr 17, 2026	8	0.3%
Apr 20, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 21, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 22, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 23, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 24, 2026	6	0.2%
Apr 25, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 27, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 30, 2026	2	0.1%
May 1, 2026	4	0.2%
May 4, 2026	4	0.2%
May 5, 2026	2	0.1%
May 6, 2026	4	0.2%
May 7, 2026	4	0.2%
May 8, 2026	6	0.2%
May 9, 2026	3	0.1%
May 11, 2026	4	0.2%
May 12, 2026	3	0.1%
May 13, 2026	3	0.1%
May 14, 2026	7	0.3%
May 15, 2026	9	0.4%
May 18, 2026	6	0.2%
May 19, 2026	4	0.2%
May 20, 2026	6	0.2%
May 21, 2026	8	0.3%
May 22, 2026	30	1.2%
May 23, 2026	4	0.2%
May 26, 2026	14	0.6%
May 27, 2026	4	0.2%
May 28, 2026	9	0.4%
May 29, 2026	42	1.7%
Jun 1, 2026	20	0.8%
Jun 2, 2026	13	0.5%
Jun 3, 2026	22	0.9%
Jun 4, 2026	11	0.4%
Jun 5, 2026	26	1.1%
Jun 8, 2026	6	0.2%
Jun 9, 2026	12	0.5%
Jun 10, 2026	7	0.3%
Jun 11, 2026	17	0.7%
Jun 12, 2026	215	8.8%
Jun 13, 2026	29	1.2%
Jun 15, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 18, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 19, 2026	162	6.6%
Jun 20, 2026	55	2.2%
Jun 22, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 24, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 26, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 29, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 2, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 6, 2026	7	0.3%
Jul 7, 2026	8	0.3%
Jul 8, 2026	7	0.3%

Week of July 13, 2026, 3,075 cases approved

Median application date: Mar 27, 2026. Median wait: 108 days.

Application date	Cases	% of week
Feb 18, 2025	1	0.0%
Mar 3, 2025	1	0.0%
Mar 6, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 10, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 23, 2025	1	0.0%
Oct 28, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 13, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 14, 2025	2	0.1%
Nov 15, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 17, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 21, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 22, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 23, 2025	1	0.0%
Nov 24, 2025	15	0.5%
Nov 25, 2025	28	0.9%
Nov 26, 2025	27	0.9%
Nov 27, 2025	28	0.9%
Nov 28, 2025	45	1.5%
Nov 29, 2025	154	5.0%
Nov 30, 2025	10	0.3%
Dec 1, 2025	128	4.2%
Dec 2, 2025	147	4.8%
Dec 3, 2025	89	2.9%
Dec 4, 2025	107	3.5%
Dec 5, 2025	23	0.7%
Dec 6, 2025	13	0.4%
Dec 8, 2025	4	0.1%
Dec 9, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 10, 2025	3	0.1%
Dec 13, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 15, 2025	4	0.1%
Dec 16, 2025	2	0.1%
Dec 19, 2025	1	0.0%
Dec 20, 2025	38	1.2%
Dec 22, 2025	27	0.9%
Dec 23, 2025	10	0.3%
Dec 24, 2025	9	0.3%
Dec 26, 2025	19	0.6%
Dec 27, 2025	6	0.2%
Dec 29, 2025	9	0.3%
Dec 30, 2025	6	0.2%
Dec 31, 2025	9	0.3%
Jan 2, 2026	16	0.5%
Jan 3, 2026	38	1.2%
Jan 5, 2026	17	0.6%
Jan 6, 2026	18	0.6%
Jan 7, 2026	11	0.4%
Jan 8, 2026	13	0.4%
Jan 9, 2026	14	0.5%
Jan 10, 2026	35	1.1%
Jan 12, 2026	6	0.2%
Jan 13, 2026	2	0.1%
Jan 14, 2026	9	0.3%
Jan 15, 2026	8	0.3%
Jan 16, 2026	6	0.2%
Jan 17, 2026	8	0.3%
Jan 20, 2026	12	0.4%
Jan 21, 2026	16	0.5%
Jan 22, 2026	19	0.6%
Jan 23, 2026	17	0.6%
Jan 24, 2026	6	0.2%
Jan 26, 2026	5	0.2%
Jan 27, 2026	7	0.2%
Jan 28, 2026	5	0.2%
Jan 29, 2026	3	0.1%
Jan 30, 2026	13	0.4%
Jan 31, 2026	13	0.4%
Feb 3, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 5, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 6, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 7, 2026	7	0.2%
Feb 9, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 10, 2026	4	0.1%
Feb 11, 2026	4	0.1%
Feb 12, 2026	6	0.2%
Feb 13, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 14, 2026	7	0.2%
Feb 17, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 18, 2026	7	0.2%
Feb 19, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 20, 2026	6	0.2%
Feb 21, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 23, 2026	4	0.1%
Feb 24, 2026	2	0.1%
Feb 25, 2026	3	0.1%
Feb 26, 2026	8	0.3%
Feb 27, 2026	1	0.0%
Feb 28, 2026	9	0.3%
Mar 2, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 3, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 5, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 6, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 7, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 9, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 10, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 11, 2026	3	0.1%
Mar 12, 2026	5	0.2%
Mar 13, 2026	24	0.8%
Mar 14, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 16, 2026	7	0.2%
Mar 17, 2026	8	0.3%
Mar 18, 2026	15	0.5%
Mar 19, 2026	7	0.2%
Mar 20, 2026	31	1.0%
Mar 21, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 23, 2026	12	0.4%
Mar 24, 2026	1	0.0%
Mar 25, 2026	2	0.1%
Mar 26, 2026	21	0.7%
Mar 27, 2026	110	3.6%
Mar 28, 2026	29	0.9%
Mar 30, 2026	4	0.1%
Apr 3, 2026	161	5.2%
Apr 4, 2026	31	1.0%
Apr 5, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 8, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 9, 2026	7	0.2%
Apr 10, 2026	25	0.8%
Apr 11, 2026	2	0.1%
Apr 13, 2026	33	1.1%
Apr 14, 2026	42	1.4%
Apr 15, 2026	43	1.4%
Apr 16, 2026	52	1.7%
Apr 17, 2026	52	1.7%
Apr 18, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 19, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 20, 2026	28	0.9%
Apr 21, 2026	37	1.2%
Apr 22, 2026	31	1.0%
Apr 23, 2026	34	1.1%
Apr 24, 2026	42	1.4%
Apr 29, 2026	1	0.0%
Apr 30, 2026	2	0.1%
May 1, 2026	1	0.0%
May 2, 2026	1	0.0%
May 5, 2026	1	0.0%
May 7, 2026	1	0.0%
May 8, 2026	2	0.1%
May 11, 2026	1	0.0%
May 12, 2026	1	0.0%
May 14, 2026	5	0.2%
May 15, 2026	3	0.1%
May 18, 2026	5	0.2%
May 19, 2026	2	0.1%
May 20, 2026	9	0.3%
May 21, 2026	7	0.2%
May 22, 2026	22	0.7%
May 23, 2026	1	0.0%
May 25, 2026	1	0.0%
May 26, 2026	13	0.4%
May 27, 2026	1	0.0%
May 28, 2026	2	0.1%
May 29, 2026	18	0.6%
Jun 1, 2026	2	0.1%
Jun 2, 2026	10	0.3%
Jun 3, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 4, 2026	5	0.2%
Jun 5, 2026	15	0.5%
Jun 8, 2026	8	0.3%
Jun 9, 2026	12	0.4%
Jun 10, 2026	11	0.4%
Jun 11, 2026	17	0.6%
Jun 12, 2026	31	1.0%
Jun 15, 2026	11	0.4%
Jun 16, 2026	6	0.2%
Jun 17, 2026	19	0.6%
Jun 18, 2026	45	1.5%
Jun 19, 2026	149	4.8%
Jun 20, 2026	28	0.9%
Jun 22, 2026	22	0.7%
Jun 23, 2026	3	0.1%
Jun 24, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 26, 2026	170	5.5%
Jun 27, 2026	51	1.7%
Jun 29, 2026	1	0.0%
Jun 30, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 3, 2026	7	0.2%
Jul 4, 2026	1	0.0%
Jul 7, 2026	2	0.1%
Jul 9, 2026	9	0.3%
Jul 10, 2026	8	0.3%
Jul 13, 2026	4	0.1%
Jul 14, 2026	9	0.3%
Jul 15, 2026	7	0.2%
Jul 16, 2026	3	0.1%

Look at both ends of that July 13 table. Cases from July 13, 14, 15, and 16 are in it, approved the same week they were filed. At the same time, over 150 cases from late November finally came through. Both the newest and the oldest, in one week.

Use this as a guide, not a promise

Everything here is an average across thousands of cases. Your own case can be faster or slower because of your background check, an RFE, your country of origin, or other reasons specific to your case. It all assumes USCIS keeps its current pace, which can change. I check every week and will share it right away if that happens. If your timing is urgent, please talk to an immigration attorney.

Privacy reminder

The estimator does not log anything. No database, no tracking, no analytics. You do not enter a receipt number, your name, your A-number, or anything personal. All it asks for is a date, and it runs entirely in your browser. The code is public: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator

Thank you

Thank you all for continuing to follow along, and for the honest questions and pushback, it genuinely helps. To everyone still waiting, especially those of you from late last year: you are still moving through, in real numbers, every week. I hope your approval comes very soon.

Calculator: https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/

Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator

TLDR

USCIS approved about 3,075 cases this week, a steady pace similar to last week. The huge middle of the backlog is mostly finished, so each week is now the remaining older cases (November through January) finishing up plus fresh June and July applications approved in about three weeks. The calculator's estimate has matched the real data three weeks running, so no changes were needed beyond loading this week's numbers. If you applied late last year and are still waiting, your group is still being approved every week and is most likely finishing the extra background check review, which shrinks the remaining group each week. As always, this is an average, not a promise. Hoping everyone gets approved soon.