u/Ced-Invest

Nvidia Q1 FY27 dropped yesterday. Revenue $81.6B, data center $75.2B (92% of the company), Q2 guide $91B, another $80B added to the buyback. Jensen said demand has "gone parabolic" and that agentic AI has arrived. The stock barely moved (+1.93%) because all of that was already priced.

That last sentence is the part I cannot stop thinking about.

For the last cycle, Bitcoin's pitch was "asymmetric bet on the future of money and computation." It owned the "this is where the smart money is putting capital for the next decade" slot in the macro narrative. In 2026 that slot has been taken by AI infrastructure. Capex is real, revenue is real, the buyback is real, and you can underwrite a DCF on it.

Meanwhile BTC sits around $77.8k. Spot ETFs just bled $1B in a week, snapping a six week inflow streak. CPI is 3.8%, PPI is 6%, and supposedly inflation hedge BTC is down roughly 25% from the highs while the dollar wedge has not really cracked. The "store of value when fiat dies" thesis is still there, but it is not what brought new capital in. ETF flows brought new capital in, and ETF flows are turning into AI ETF flows.

I am still long. Not selling. But I think we have to be honest about what changed. The post halving year was supposed to be the one where the supply shock met institutional demand. Instead institutional demand discovered a thesis with quarterly earnings attached.

Two questions I would like the sub's take on.

Does BTC reclaim the "future of capital" narrative slot from AI in this cycle, or does it permanently become a sleeve allocation instead of the trade?

And if you had fresh capital today, is the marginal dollar going to BTC or to the AI capex stack? Honest answers.

Posted here a few days ago about the Fed pivot trade being dead. The 48 hours since have made the case look stronger, not weaker.

Kevin Warsh was confirmed May 13 in a 54-45 vote, most divisive Fed chair confirmation in history. Powell handed over the keys. The handover day already saw a 4.1 percent drop on the S&P. Historical base rate since 1930 for the S&P after a new Fed chair takes office: 5, 12 and 16 percent drawdowns at 1, 3 and 6 months. That is the average, not the worst case.

10Y treasury is sitting above 4.6, highest in roughly a year. CME FedWatch has gone from 1 percent odds of a 2026 hike a month ago to 45 percent today. The bond market is pricing the Fed having to actually tighten again. That is the exact opposite of what got crypto from 60k to 80k earlier this year.

BTC is at 76.5k, down from 80 a week ago. ETH is at 2.11, lowest open since April 7. SOL holding 84. Funding flat, OI heavy but not extreme, futures liquidations only ~29M on the 24h. This is not a leveraged flush, this is the macro tape repricing risk and crypto being downstream of it.

Add to all that: NVDA prints tonight, options pricing an 8 to 13 percent move on a 5.5T stock. If they guide soft or in line and the tape can't rally because yields keep ripping, equities follow and BTC follows equities, simple as that.

The thing I think gets underpriced in these debates is that for the last 18 months, crypto has been trading like a long-duration tech stock. That correlation does not break just because we want it to. As long as the 10Y is above 4.5 and the new chair is publicly tilted toward tightening discipline, the macro headwind is real.

Anyone here actually positioned for an upside scenario or is everyone basically defensive into NVDA and the rest of the Warsh first month?

BTC is at $76,869 this morning after another flush. 527 million in long liquidations on 24 hours, mostly from leverage builds that got too confident the 80k breakout was happening.

The underlying story is macro. April PPI printed at 6 percent, way hotter than expected. CPI hit 3.8 percent year over year, the highest since May 2023. Core stuck at 2.8. The probability of a rate hike by December went from 21.5 percent to 25 percent in a week, and the probability of any cut through 2027 just collapsed to basically zero.

So the entire "we wait for the pivot and BTC rips" thesis that fueled the run from January is on pause. The Fed is not your friend right now.

But here is the other side. Long term holders are sitting on 14.84 million BTC that has not moved in 155 plus days. April saw 2.44B in net spot ETF inflows, the strongest month since October 2025. Jane Street is rotating into ETH (82M added, 70 percent BTC reduction). So there is real demand, just not in size.

ETH is the one to watch in my opinion. The ratio chart looks like 2021 setup pre rotation. SOL already did its thing, up 13 percent on the week, breaking 90 to 95 with 39M of ETF inflows.

So the real question. Do you think this is the start of a bigger correction back to 65 to 70k, or just shaking out leverage before the next leg toward 90? And does ETH outperform from here?