I’ve been doing a deep dive into Orlando’s housing market using data analysis.
I don’t know what I expected to find, other than what most people my age and below already know. It’s insanely overpriced right now.
Having said that, I did find some pretty crazy things I didn’t expect. For instance, when comparing average mortgage rates and average monthly mortgage payments between 2005 and 2025, payments went up (following 2-4 years) when rates were at their lowest. The inverse was true as well. When rates were the highest, there was a years long run of monthly payments dropping. The data appears to show that monthly payment increases are far more dependent on external factors outside of rates. Mainly competition that’s driving prices up.
I also did a deep dive into the median cost of a home. It does show that home prices have weakened the last two years, but not substantially (about 5% city wide). The craziest thing I found in this was the increases. The increase in home value between 2020 and 2023 was 140k. To put that into context, that increase was enough to buy a median home between 2010-2013.
Anyways, sorry for the rant. I don’t have anyone to share this with and wanted to talk about it as someone who was lucky enough to buy a home early. If you still dream of buying in the Orlando area, it does seem like it’s turning in buyers favor. Time will tell I guess.
**Edit** I wanted to check with the mods before I posted to make sure I wasnt breaking any rules. The PDF copy of the data analysis can be downloaded completely free from my Substack here if anyone is interested: https://billiegrimes.substack.com/p/orlando-real-estate-market-data-home?r=8bwgn8
**Last Edit (hopefully!)** You guys have been awesome. If I’m being honest, I was a bit nervous to post this and put it out there. Thank you for the wonderful conversations and feedback. I also got an award, so thank you for that as well my fellow Orlandian!