u/Chance-Ad-8704

I’ve been thinking about this lately, and here are my observations.

PS: To keep a similar number of countries in the final, we are increasing the number of qualifiers from the semi-final from 10 to 12. The host nation remains pre-qualified.

2026: Germany and Italy join the first semi-final. Italy would easily qualify as the 11th nation, whereas Germany would likely fail to qualify (NQ), with Estonia (originally 11th) taking their place instead. France and the United Kingdom join the second semi-final. The UK would certainly fail to qualify, with Switzerland (originally 11th) taking their place, while France would likely qualify (having placed 6th or 7th in the semi-final). Thus, the final lineup features Switzerland and Estonia instead of the UK and Germany.

In 2025, to avoid a difference of two in the number of participating countries between the semi-finals, we move France to the first semi-final. Furthermore, predicting potential results is easier here because the voting is 100% televote.

2025: The first semi-final includes 15 countries plus Spain, France, and Italy. Spain would likely be a shock non-qualifier; France would qualify, though probably around 9th or 10th place; and Italy would certainly qualify, likely around 4th or 5th place. Cyprus takes Spain's place. The second semi-final includes 16 countries plus Germany and the UK. Given the 100% televote, the UK would certainly fail to qualify (though there might have been a chance of borderline qualification if a jury were voting); Australia takes the UK's place instead. Germany would likely qualify. So, we have Cyprus and Australia instead of the UK and Spain.

In 2024, we have the same problem as in 2025, so we are moving Italy from the second semi-final to the first.

2024: In the first semi-final, there are 15 countries plus Germany, the UK, and Italy. Starting with Germany—which finished 12th in the final, largely thanks to the juries—they would likely be a non-qualifier (or perhaps finish 12th). Australia (originally 11th) takes Germany's place. Then there is the UK, which received zero points from the televote—a definite non-qualifier; Poland (originally 12th) takes their spot. Italy would likely qualify from the middle of the pack. In the second semi-final, there are 16 countries plus France and Spain. France would certainly qualify, potentially even finishing in the top three (out of 18 countries). Spain, however, stands little chance and would likely fail to qualify; the Czech Republic takes their place. So, for 2024, Australia, the Czech Republic, and Poland replace Spain, the UK, and Germany.

I'm Polish, and since we've won twice here, unlike the adult version of the contest, I'm a huge fan of Junior Eurovision.

While that doesn't surprise me, this year's Eurovision Asia has sort of sidelined Junior Eurovision, for example, by changing its date. I have the impression that no one cares about Junior Eurovision this year. What's more, I have the impression it's been this way since the very beginning of the year.

In May 2026, I wrote a post (deleted by Reddit 🙈) in which I wrote that by May 2025, we already knew 10 countries and the host country. But by early May 2026, we only knew 6 countries and didn't even know the host country. Now, for the first time in many years, there's not a single country returning to the contest.

Am I the only one who will be following Junior Eurovision more than Eurovision Asia (I'll be watching it and wish you luck, but don't take away my Junior Eurovision)? Let me know in the comments!

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There was a recent uproar in the Eurovision world after Martin Green, the director of Eurovision, stated that (after four years of rightly insisting that Russia absolutely couldn't participate), Russia could in principle participate if the broadcaster RTRN proved its independence from the Kremlin.

As a Pole, I believe that, firstly, Russia's participation in this contest should be avoided given what's happening in Ukraine and the country's current provocations, despite its apolitical nature. Secondly, even if Russia miraculously did participate, the results (and songs) would be highly politically charged.

Immediately after this incident, I wondered why the EBU didn't give the Belarusian broadcaster BTRC such a chance. Yes, I know that the broadcaster is currently violating the principle of free media, but firstly, Belarus is not at war (at least not directly), and secondly, the EBU could help a theoretically independent broadcaster from Belarus participate. Thirdly, if Belarus returned, most broadcasters would have little reason to boycott the BTRC, because the evil things Belarus is doing aren't on the scale or politically significant as Russia.

Moreover, the BTRC was removed not because of genocide, but because the broadcaster overstepped its bounds by sending political songs. It's a real shame to think that if the BTRC had sent VAL in 2021, we would still have Belarus at Eurovision today.

You weren't the most powerful country, but every time I heard that Belarus was in the final, I was happy. The songs "Like It" and "Cheesecake" are really good, and they were massively underrated.

I'm secretly hoping and waiting until Belarusians can live a normal life, like other Slavic nations. Belarusians, hang in there, I'm waiting for you at Eurovision!

While browsing the old performances at Eurovision, I noticed that Bulgaria won Eurovision with dancers. Why is it so interesting?

Well, the last victorious performance at Eurovision that included the dancers was Netta's 2018 performance.

At the same time, Netta did not have "typical" dancers. So if we skip Israel from 2018, we reach ... Azerbaijan 2011!

Why have dancers been overlooked for so long? I'm curious to hear your perspective.

Analyzing the Eurovision Song Contest results since 2016, an interesting pattern emerges. Quite often, teams finishing second in the semifinals are not as successful in the final. Of the 20 entries that finished second in the semifinals, six did not reach the top 10, and one was disqualified. These are:

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2026: POLAND | Alicja - Pray | 2nd in SF | 12th in the final

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2025: LATVIA | Tautumeitas - Bur man laimi | 2nd in SF | 13th in the final

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2024: NETHERLANDS | Joost Klein - Europa | 2nd in SF | Disqualified

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2023: AUSTRIA | Teya & Salena - Who the Hell Is Edgar? | 2nd in SF | 15th in the final

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2022: AUSTRALIA | Sheldon Riley - Not the Same | 2nd in SF | 15th in final

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Also 2022: NETHERLANDS | S10 - De diepte | 2nd in SF | 11th in final

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2019: CZECHIA | Lake Malawi - Friend of a Friend | 2nd in SF | 11th in final