![[model log boxing] 100 confirmed results now logged — 11.25% ROI 81.00% accuracy +11.25u flat-stake P/L](https://preview.redd.it/1jy4z9vqcxjh1.png?width=140&height=140&crop=1:1,smart&auto=webp&s=175f3d9c18c47335876d93ab14fc7d992d3958c5)
[model log boxing] 100 confirmed results now logged — 11.25% ROI 81.00% accuracy +11.25u flat-stake P/L
Here are the first 100 all model leans results for the fitequant default model:
In this strategy the model makes a prediction on basically all boxing winners and makes a 1u flat stake bet* each time, no matter the odds on offer. So even if a price is terrible… bet anyway.
*Please remember fitequant internally just uses one consistent book as a reference for market odds to take market variance out of the process as much as possible, with predictions made at opening odds and resolved on those odds.
100 confirmed all-leans bets
81 wins / 19 losses
+11.25u flat-stake profit
11.25% ROI
Average odds 1.6886
Below are the latest 3 results added this weekend.
https://fitequant.com/results?prediction_strategy=all_leans&period=all&per_page=20
And the value picks only betting strategy results
In this strategy the model only bets if it sees value in the odds on offer by the market. Where the models win probability exceeds the implied volatility of the market odds of the fighter it thinks will win.
So exact same predictions, but you can think of this as “likes the fighter and likes the price”
100 confirmed value picks only results
30 bets
17 wins / 13 losses
+6.93 u flat stake profit
23.11% ROI
Average odds 2.8666
So this week we hit 100 results exactly, and in the most modeling way possible, 2 bouts out of 4 were cancelled over the weekend including the value pick, and 3 totally forgettable no value massive favourite wins take us across the line.
There was one no value bout that took place during the week which i didn’t bother logging publicly, but in the interests of clarity, here it is.
https://fitequant.com/compare/946-michael-zerafa/1197-alejandro-ortiz?canonical_fight_id=26376
Forecast review
After 100 results i’m pleased by my early forecasts both turning out reasonably accurate with both model betting strategies ending up well within variance range of forecasts.
I always think it’s a bit of fun to try and forecast ROI on new models, but now we finally have a decent sample I’ll just talk about the data we actually have.
I'm delighted with the all leans strategy.
100 bets. Flat stake. No cherry-picking. +11.25 unit profit. In 4 months.
The double digit ROI was highly stable across the whole run, and 0 -> 11.25 profit in 4 months is exactly what double digit ROI looks like with enough opportunities to get it down each week.
I’m actually pretty staggered that it has stayed at double digit ROI for so long, as with boxing there are soo many massive obvious favourites with terrible odds, where even a win hammers the ROI, actually the 100th result itself was a great example of this with Shields winning at 1.0286 (a measly 2 cent profit on $1 flat stake bet)
In terms of the value picks strategy, well it's been very frustrating recently as the boxing hasnt been great for a few weeks and just not much value on offer seemingly with very few value picks recently.
So with only 30 bets placed it might take a little while to get more clarity here, but its been wobbling around 20-35% for a while now and I guess somewhere around there now seems pretty reasonable, but lets see I suppose, although boxing is a bit slow, it is reliable in consistent weekly N.
Key to my confidence here is the fact that average vs implied edge has been effectively static at an extraordinary 20% across the whole run of bets so far, with accuracy around 55-60% for that period.
Quick look forward to next week
https://fitequant.com/upcoming
Thankfully after a period of pretty rubbish boxing the current upcoming slate is very active, with 6 bouts already upcoming for next weekend, including two value picks, i’d actually expect to get a fair few more results than this as most undercard bouts dont appear until the days leading up to the weekend itself.
As always if anyone has any questions or would like anything cleared up, please feel free to ask me.
Thanks, Dan
EDIT* Forgot to mention i've written up a more in deoth article on SSI (structured subjective inference), its aimed at a slightly more general audience, but for anyone whos open minded interested to learn more, you should be able to find that relatively easily with a google search, although do DM if anyone interested cant find it.
