u/Chathamjedi

These are just my thoughts. I expect some will agree and some will rip me a new one. That’s ok, just means we are all passionate about the Habs. I have 3 ways to get better and all have pros n cons.

UFAs. Pros are that you don’t have to give anything off the roster, picks or prospects and it allows you to shop for specific needs. Cons are that you have to outbid other teams so usually an overpay. They tend to be older and looking for term so doesn’t always age well.

Trades. Pros are you get players that are under contract or can negotiate an extension exclusively. You get to target specific needs. It also allows you to hopefully trade your strengths for weakness and can work both sides. Cons are that these will cost you players on roster, picks or prospects. You have to give to get. There is no guarantee that you win the trade and it can haunt you.

Draft. This is internal building. Draft and development. Pros are that if you hit, you get 3 years on ELCs, you get a reasonable 2nd contract and leverage as RFAs vs UFAs. The Cons are that if you have poor scouting and development you never hit. The other is TIME. It can take years for these players to make contributions.

Now here is how it relates to Habs. I think they’re staying at this point with building through their draft and development. We know our weaknesses and we have solutions in the pipeline. It is TIME that is the con. Hage is 2C, Zharovsky is top 6 wing, Pickford, Reinbacher is RHD. Flo Xhekaj is that power forward bottom 6, Beck is that Danault replacement etc…

To me this is why Kent Hughes has been quiet. We aren’t chasing to over pay in trades or UFAs. We have to take advantage of maximizing the rookie contracts and lower cost 2nd contracts. These will pair well with higher (but reasonable) salaries of Suzi, Hutson, Slaf, Demidov (coming), Dobson, CC.

We need to be patient. Do NOT go after 30 year olds that have proven hardly anything and sign them for long 8 year terms (required Leaf dig). This is the best path. This is the reason we are checking in but not changing the best path. We are so lucky that management remains patient despite the pressure.

Carolina had 111 points and have gone 8-0 in playoffs. Seems dominating. Let’s look closer. Canes had a 0.769 win percentage vs teams from Metropolitan division. 42 points (26 games) and a 0.542 win percentage vs Atlantic for 28 points (24 games). We all know what division is tougher. Almost the same amount of games. Montreal had a 0.615 win percentage vs Atlantic teams (26 games).

This tells me that our 106 points vs Tampa, Boston, Buffalo, Detroit, Ottawa were much harder than NYI, NYR, Philly, Pittsburgh, CLJ, Washington. Metro had 3 playoff teams, Atlantic 5. Atlantic had 4 teams reach 100 points. Only Carolina hit 100.

I feel Montreal would have gained an additional 3 wins if we were in the Metro and would have been ahead of Carolina in the standings. Just my opinion tho. We also went 3-0 head to head vs them.

That’s regular season. How about playoffs? We just finished 2 series vs high caliber teams in Tampa 106 points, Buffalo 109 points. Both from the Atlantic which I just broke down. Hard, fast styles. Top goaltending in Vassy, Norris finalist in Dahlin, 2 Jack Adams coaches. Carolina played Philly and Ottawa. No where near the same level. Great that they swept them. We have battle scars, we know the pace, we have felt the brink of elimination.

Goalies. Anderson’s numbers through 8 are insane. Not sustainable either and tbh, a very small sample size. He has not faced our fire power, our depth, our speed, Lane Hutson is an X factor all on his own. Dobeš has been awesome in his own right. Faced Kuch, Hagel, Point, Raddysh, Tage, Dahlin, Tuch, Benson etc… much harder games. Anderson is not all world and never has been. I’m expecting a change in his numbers. Lyon came into the series ahead of Dobeš in numbers and left sitting on the bench.

Tired? We are the youngest team. We have stamina, we are now used to this pace and Carolina have not played in 12 days. Yes they’re rested but also cold. They don’t know the same pace and will be surprised and will need to get up to speed. Again my opinion. We are faster. I feel in being out hustled they will take penalties and we will capitalize.

Our top line has not found their game fully 5v5 yet. So we still have this. I think it will happen. We have Demidov getting comfortable with the playoffs and was dynamic. Newhook was a hero as a depth scorer, Bolduc knows his role, Andy is a playoff beast, Ghule is so underrated, Matheson is playing all situations, Dobson is back.

I have FULL CONFIDENCE that we are the better team, we have the right pieces such as Danault, Evans for key points of the game- penalty kills, face offs etc… MSL is a therapist to get these guys through the mental roller coaster. I feel we will be celebrating a SC finals berth within 2 weeks.

What are your thoughts???