u/Cheetah5048

DOS posted monthly visa issuance files from October 2025 till end of February 2026.

Under family capped category (226K) here is the monthly break down:

Oct 2025: 16.4K

Nov 2025: 14.5K

Dec 2025: 15.8K

Jan 2026: 12.6K

Feb 2026: 7.7K

Total: 67K

Looks like a significant dip due to 39 country ban and 75 country pause.

Data source: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html

Cc: u/GreenCardClock

Not a Lawyer. Personal Insights.

UPDATE: Posting FY 2025 monthly numbers from October 2024 till Feb 2025 for reference.

October 2024: 20760 Nov 2024: 14269 Dec 2024: 14450 Jan 2025: 13565 Feb 2025: 15431

Total: 78475

Note: This estimate is based on what data and approximations I can make today. These things can change based on I140 adjudication patterns and spillovers etc.

As I am getting lot of messages and comments regaridng PD moving to 2026. Here is what I am considering to estimate the cumulative number of visa numbers that may need to be absorbed before EB-1 India can sustainably move into the 2026 priority-date population.

This is necessarily an estimate because USCIS and DOS do not publish every component needed to calculate the queue precisely. However, I think the available inventory data, estimated new-principal population, pending I-140 pipeline, and continuing annual demand give us a reasonable framework.

1. Approximately 20K pending I-485s at the end of FY2026

I am estimating that approximately 20K EB-1 India I-485 applicants may remain pending through roughly the December 1, 2023 priority-date range at the end of FY2026.

This is not simply the May 6, 2026 inventory number carried forward unchanged.

My approximately 20K estimate already attempts to account for activity between the May inventory snapshot and the end of FY2026, including:

* I-485 approvals occurring from May through the remainder of the fiscal year

* Visa numbers consumed during that period

* Additional older-priority-date demand entering through porting during this period

* The fact that the Final Action Date can move or retrogress depending on actual visa usage

Therefore, I am using approximately 20K as an estimated FY2026-end starting backlog, rather than treating the May inventory as static.

This 20K is already a count of I-485 applicants. It includes principals and derivatives, so it should not be multiplied again by a dependent assumption.

Starting demand at the end of FY2026:

Approximately 20K visa numbers.

2. Approximately 15K new principals between late 2023 and the 2026 population

My estimate is that there are approximately 15K new EB-1 India principals in the priority-date population that must be worked through before the Final Action Date can sustainably reach the 2026 population.

This produces very different visa demand depending on the number of derivatives.

Scenario 1: 1 dependent per principal

15K principals x 2 visa numbers = approximately 30K visas.

Adding the approximately 20K pending FY2026-end inventory:

20K + 30K = approximately 50K visa numbers.

Scenario 2: 2 dependents per principal

15K principals x 3 visa numbers = approximately 45K visas.

Adding the approximately 20K pending FY2026-end inventory:

20K + 45K = approximately 65K visa numbers.

So before considering currently pending I-140 petitions or future annual demand, I get a base requirement of approximately:

50K visas with 1 dependent per principal.

65K visas with 2 dependents per principal.

3. Approximately 9K EB-1 petitions are still pending adjudication

There is another source of demand that is not fully visible yet.

Approximately 9K EB-1 petitions are still pending adjudication, and some of these could have priority dates between 2023 and 2026.

Using an approximate 45% approval assumption:

9K x 45% = approximately 4,050 eventual approvals.

I would not simply add all 4,050 to the 15K estimate.

Some of these pending petitions could be cases using older retained priority dates, while others could represent genuinely new priority dates between 2023 and 2026.

Only the genuinely new-PD portion would increase the estimated 15K new-principal population.

For example, if 25% to 75% of the approximately 4,050 expected approvals represent genuinely new priority dates, the additional new-principal population would be approximately:

25% new PD: approximately 1,000 additional principals.

50% new PD: approximately 2,000 additional principals.

75% new PD: approximately 3,000 additional principals.

Using the 50% midpoint only as an illustration, approximately 2K additional new principals would increase the 15K estimate to approximately 17K principals.

With 1 dependent per principal:

17K x 2 = approximately 34K visas.

20K existing inventory + 34K = approximately 54K visa numbers.

With 2 dependents per principal:

17K x 3 = approximately 51K visas.

20K existing inventory + 51K = approximately 71K visa numbers.

Therefore, once the currently pending I-140 pipeline is considered, I think the initial 50K to 65K estimate can reasonably move higher.

A midpoint illustration gives approximately:

54K visas with 1 dependent per principal.

71K visas with 2 dependents per principal.

The exact number depends on how many of the pending I-140 approvals actually generate new 2023 to 2026 priority dates.

4. Continuing annual porting demand after FY2026

The queue does not remain static after FY2026.

Historically, I estimated in earlier post that approximately 3.5K to 4K principals per fiscal year may continue to enter EB-1 India demand through priority-date porting.

The porting that occurs between the May 2026 inventory snapshot and the end of FY2026 is already being considered in my approximately 20K FY2026-end inventory estimate.

Therefore, I would start adding this recurring annual demand beginning with FY2027 rather than adding it again to FY2026.

If approximately 3.5K to 4K porting principals enter each future fiscal year:

With 1 dependent per principal:

3.5K x 2 = approximately 7K visas.

4K x 2 = approximately 8K visas.

That is approximately 7K to 8K of additional visa demand per fiscal year.

With 2 dependents per principal:

3.5K x 3 = approximately 10.5K visas.

4K x 3 = approximately 12K visas.

That is approximately 10.5K to 12K of additional visa demand per fiscal year.

This matters significantly because these applicants generally carry older priority dates and can consume visa numbers ahead of later new-PD applicants while the Final Action Date is trying to move forward.

5. What happens if reaching 2026 takes multiple fiscal years?

Using the approximately 54K and 71K midpoint starting estimates after accounting for part of the pending I-140 pipeline:

If it takes two additional fiscal years after FY2026:

1 dependent per principal:

Starting demand: approximately 54K.

Two years of recurring demand: approximately 14K to 16K.

Total cumulative demand: approximately 68K to 70K visas.

2 dependents per principal:

Starting demand: approximately 71K.

Two years of recurring demand: approximately 21K to 24K.

Total cumulative demand: approximately 92K to 95K visas.

If it takes three additional fiscal years:

1 dependent per principal:

Approximately 75K to 78K cumulative visa demand.

2 dependents per principal:

Approximately 102.5K to 107K cumulative visa demand.

This is why I do not think the question can be answered by simply looking at the 15K estimated new principals.

Bottom Line

My current framework is:

Approximately 20K pending I-485 applicants at the end of FY2026 through roughly the December 1, 2023 priority-date population.

Plus approximately 15K new principals that need to be worked through to reach the 2026 population.

Plus additional genuinely new-PD principals that emerge from the approximately 9K currently pending EB-1 petitions.

Plus approximately 3.5K to 4K additional older-PD principals entering through porting during each future fiscal year.

The approximately 20K FY2026-end backlog already assumes that some I-485s from the May inventory will be approved between May and the end of the fiscal year and that additional porting demand will also enter during that period. I am therefore not simply taking the May inventory and adding everything on top of it.

Under the basic 15K-principal model, I get approximately:

50K cumulative visa demand with 1 dependent per principal.

65K cumulative visa demand with 2 dependents per principal.

After allowing for some genuinely new-PD approvals from the approximately 9K pending I-140 petitions, a reasonable midpoint illustration moves this closer to:

54K cumulative visa demand with 1 dependent per principal.

71K cumulative visa demand with 2 dependents per principal.

And those are not necessarily the final numbers.

If reaching the 2026 priority-date population takes multiple additional fiscal years, another approximately 7K to 8K visas per year under the 1-dependent assumption, or approximately 10.5K to 12K per year under the 2-dependent assumption, could be consumed by continuing annual demand.

For that reason, I think 50K to 65K should be viewed more as the starting range of cumulative demand rather than the complete amount that ultimately needs to be absorbed.

Depending on derivative ratios, the disposition of the currently pending I-140 petitions, and how many fiscal years it takes to progress through the queue, cumulative visa demand before EB-1 India can sustainably reach the 2026 priority-date population could realistically become much larger than that starting range.

The purpose of this estimate is not to predict an exact month when the Final Action Date will reach 2026. It is to estimate the amount of demand sitting in front of that population and demonstrate why substantial movement into 2026 requires absorbing far more demand than simply counting the approximately 15K new principals.

Not a Lawyer. Personsl Insights.

Link: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/eb\_inventory\_may\_2026\_v1.0.xlsx

EB1 India Pending 485's: 22,052

EB1 China Pending 485's: 6722

EB1 ROW Pending 485's: 30410

EB2 India Pending: 28179 EB2 China Pending: 4891 EB2 ROW Pending: 38128

Cc: u/GreenCardClock

Not a Lawyer.

I was looking at the latest USCIS I-140 data and trying to estimate how much EB2/EB3 to EB1 porting may have happened for India between March 2023 and April 2026.

Here’s my logic:

* In the USCIS March 2026 “approved petitions awaiting visa availability” data, there are about 15,867 EB1 India I-140s waiting for visa availability.

Source: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/eb\_i140\_i360\_i526\_performancedata\_fy2026\_q2\_v1.xlsx

* The March 2026 EB1 India Final Action Date was March 1, 2023.

Source: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2026/visa-bulletin-for-march-2026.html

* Separately, USCIS I-140 approval data shows roughly 32K approved EB1 India I-140s from FY2023 through the latest FY2026 data available around April 2026.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/i140\_rec\_by\_class\_country\_fy2026\_q2\_v1.xlsx

* Since FY2023 starts in October 2022, some of those petitions naturally had PDs before March 2023. Removing roughly 4.5K to 5.5K for that period leaves approximately 26.5K to 27.5K EB1 approvals corresponding to the March 2023 onward period.

* But only about 15.9K are showing as waiting for visa availability with the March 1, 2023 FAD.

So:

26.5K to 27.5K minus 15.9K = about 10.5K to 11.6K

My interpretation is that a large portion of this difference represents EB1 petitions filed during March 2023 to April 2026 that carried an older retained priority date, likely due to EB2/EB3 to EB1 porting.

That would suggest roughly 10K to 12K EB1 India porting or retained-PD petitions during this period, or around 3K to 4K per year.

The estimated 10K to 12K portings may also be concentrated more heavily in 2023 and 2024, given the higher EB1 approval rates during that period.

Obviously this is still an estimate, not a count of unique people. There may be duplicate petitions and other USCIS data effects that make the true number somewhat different, but I don’t expect it to vary widely.

Not sure if there is any flaw in this logic as I was thinking this when I am analyzing the numbers

Note: The USCIS “approved I140 petitions awaiting visa availability” data appears to include beneficiaries with pending I-485 applications as long as they have not yet received their green card. USCIS states that this report excludes petitions for individuals who have already obtained LPR status or U.S. citizenship. Therefore, filing an I-485 by itself does not appear to remove the underlying I-140 from this dataset.

Not a Lawyer. Personal Insights.