u/Complete-Ad-6442

Ich denke weiterhin, dass die Chancen auf einen guten Gewinn gerade höher sind als je zuvor. Grade für alle mit extrem niedrigen Average von 20-30 Dollar. Die Borrow Fee ist jetzt seit zwei Tagen bei 65 Prozent und ist dann auch den gesamten Freitag über konstant bei 65 Prozent geblieben, während den ganzen Freitag über nicht eine einzige Aktie zum Leihen verfügbar war.
Natürlich kann das jetzt auch einfach mal ein grüner Tag zwischen unendlich vielen roten sein, also nach dem Prinzip Dead Cat Bounce. Wenn man sich aber mal die gesamte Dynamik anschaut, sind wir mittlerweile wirklich unter jeder Analystenbewertung. Die Aktie ist quasi günstiger als je zuvor und gleichzeitig sind laut den offiziellen Quellen immer noch sage und schreibe 26 bis 30 Prozent des gesamten Floats short.
Das heißt, während die Aktie von ungefähr 1,40 Dollar vor wenigen Wochen auf ungefähr 0,41 Dollar gefallen ist, haben so gut wie keine Shorts ihre Positionen geschlossen. Das zeigt für mich, dass die meisten weiterhin mit einem massiven weiteren Kursrückgang rechnen.
Ich sehe hier aber mittlerweile ein absolut asymmetrisches Kosten Nutzen Verhältnis.
A, wir sind bereits auf einem absoluten Tiefpunkt.
B, wir liegen mittlerweile sogar unter den schlechtesten Analystenschätzungen.
C, die Quartalszahlen waren leicht besser als erwartet.
Und D, bei diesem niedrigen Kurs und der weiterhin extrem hohen Shortquote stellt sich für mich einfach die Frage, wie lange wollen die diese Positionen eigentlich noch halten?
Wenn jemand damals bei 5 oder 10 Dollar short gegangen ist und jetzt noch darauf wartet, dass die Aktie von 40 auf 30 Cent fällt, nur um vielleicht noch ein paar Prozentpunkte zusätzlichen Gewinn mitzunehmen, anstatt das Risiko zu reduzieren, dass diese Aktie jederzeit plötzlich massiv nach oben laufen kann, dann ist mir ehrlich gesagt schleierhaft, wo hier noch der Sinn liegt.
Gerade durch die mittlerweile deutlich geringere Aktienanzahl und die dadurch viel empfindlichere Short Squeeze Dynamik kann hier relativ wenig Kaufdruck ausreichen, um die ersten Shorts zum Covern oder zumindest zum Teil Covern zu bewegen.
Und genau daraus könnte dann eine eigene Dynamik nach oben entstehen.
Irgendwann macht es einfach keinen Sinn mehr, eine Short Position weiter zu halten, wenn der mögliche zusätzliche Gewinn nach unten immer kleiner wird, während das Risiko eines plötzlichen Anstiegs immer größer wird.
Wo ist also noch der Sinn, die Aktie zu halten, nur um vielleicht irgendwann wieder bei 30 Cent beziehungsweise ungefähr 8 Dollar nach dem Reverse Split zu landen?
Ich denke deshalb, dass hier momentan sehr wenig Kaufdruck ausreichen könnte, um relativ schnell viele Shorts zum Covern oder Teil Covern zu bewegen. Und sobald das passiert, könnte sich daraus eine eigene Dynamik nach oben entwickeln.
Neben der Turnaround Story finde ich deshalb mittlerweile auch die Squeeze These immer interessanter. Für mich ist ein möglicher Short Squeeze definitiv nicht vom Tisch. Im Gegenteil, ich finde, dass die Voraussetzungen dafür gerade immer interessanter werden.
Von daher werde ich am Montag ganz genau auf die Marktdynamik schauen.
Wenn sich weiterhin zeigt, dass praktisch keine Shares verfügbar sind, die Borrow Fee noch weiter steigt und gleichzeitig wie am Freitag extrem hohes Volumen mit steigenden Kursen zusammenkommt, dann ist für mich auf jeden Fall der erste Schritt getan.

Warum ich bei Beyond Meat weiterhin an einen Short Squeeze glaube: Was viele gerade übersehen die Voraussetzungen für einen möglichen Short Squeeze bei Beyond Meat werden meiner Meinung nach eher besser als schlechter.
Ja, die Aktienanzahl wurde durch Verwässerung erhöht. Seitdem ist sie aber weitgehend stabil geblieben. Gleichzeitig scheinen viele der bestehenden Longs weiterhin investiert zu sein, während die institutionellen Käufe im Verhältnis sogar zugenommen haben. Dadurch befinden sich potenziell immer mehr Aktien in festen Händen.
Und der aktuelle Kurs ist inzwischen extrem niedrig. Im Vergleich zu vor einem Monat bekomme ich für dasselbe Geld ungefähr 2,5-mal so viele Aktien. Was damals 1.000 Aktien für 1.000 € waren, sind heute ungefähr 2.500 Aktien für denselben Betrag.
Parallel dazu ist der Short-Druck weiter gestiegen. Besonders interessant finde ich die Borrow Rate: Die ist innerhalb von gerade einmal zwei Tagen von etwa 7 % auf 55 % gestiegen. Das zeigt zumindest, dass das Ausleihen von Aktien deutlich teurer bzw. knapper geworden ist.
Natürlich weiß niemand, wie weit der Kurs noch fallen kann. Aber Beyond Meat dürfte nach meiner Einschätzung noch mindestens einige Quartale überleben, und der aktuelle Kurs liegt inzwischen sogar unter dem niedrigsten Analysten-Kursziel von etwa 0,50 $.
Kurzfristig sieht das natürlich brutal aus. Aber genau deshalb finde ich die aktuelle Situation interessant: Die Shorts sind massiv, während Longs mit immer weniger Kapital immer mehr Anteile am Unternehmen kaufen können.
Ich bin deshalb weiterhin der Meinung, dass hier ein enormes Squeeze-Potenzial vorhanden ist. Wenn ein entsprechender Katalysator kommt, könnte sich der Kurs innerhalb weniger Tage komplett verändern. Ich denke es braucht nicht mal einen. Was interessiert mich ob der Kurs bei 0.45 oder ein Dollar ist? Ich sehe hier ganz anderes Potenzial in Short Squeeze und im Turn Arround. Je niedriger der Preis je gefährlicher wird es für die 130 Millionen Short wenn diese nicht aussteigen und für die duzenden Millionen off Chance Shorts. Jeder Kauf kann zur Explosion beitragen. Anschnallen und guten Flug ✈️

Besonders vorteilhaft bald gibt es nur noch 1/30 der Aktien. Dann wird es allein durch die Anzahl schwieriger antiken zu leihen und unzählige Duplikate zu verleihen. Das kommt der ganzen Sache zugute.

Sagt ihr mir was ist wahrscheinlicher: A Leute agieren jetzt massiv weiter bei 40 Cent? Leute kaufen sich für den bescheidenen Teil ein paar Aktien?

Ich würde den Short Squeeze bei Beyond Meat aktuell nicht abschreiben 😈** **

Even as a bull, I have to admit that this stock is currently completely destroyed.
Short interest has fallen from 31 percent to 26 percent. The borrow rate has dropped from temporarily around 80 percent to only 9 percent. And despite positive news like Beyond Immerse, Clean Label, higher meat prices and other developments, the stock continues to get brutally sold off day after day.
I have to be honest, this is one of the worst stock charts I have ever seen. Even from around $0.80 three weeks ago, we have now been sold off by more than 30 percent again. I honestly never thought we would see $0.50 again.
But to be fair, the company has never generated sustainable positive numbers. I was always aware of that, even though I remained optimistic about the long term.
At this point, Beyond Meat has a market value below its annual revenue. Yes, the company is still burning cash. But if Beyond Meat ever manages to become profitable, everyone can calculate the potential upside for the stock.
I have bought the dip three or four more times and I am still down around 30 percent overall. However, I will not increase my position of 12,000 shares any further.
I simply hope that the upcoming earnings finally surprise positively. To be honest, I no longer expect much at all. I originally got involved partly because of the possibility of a short squeeze, and since then, almost every single earnings report has been disappointing. At this point, people are already celebrating when the company only burns 20 million dollars of cash per quarter. That alone shows how low expectations have become.
Even though I still consider myself one of the optimists here, I have to admit that the earnings reports over the last year have simply been terrible.
In my opinion, Beyond Meat has one of the weakest management teams I have ever seen. The frustrating part is that the products themselves are absolutely world class. In my view, there are currently no better meat alternative products when it comes to taste and quality.
And before the usual comments start: I eat meat myself. I still believe Beyond Meat products are an excellent alternative from a taste perspective. I am convinced that many people would not even be able to tell the difference between a Beyond Burger and a traditional burger in a blind test. The fact that Beyond Meat regularly wins awards for its products also speaks for itself.
That is why I do not accept the argument that the products are bad or low quality. The real problem is the management. I still cannot understand how a company with such strong products and so much experience can fail so badly on the operational side. The fact that the company has still not found a sustainable path to profitability is simply shocking.
I remain invested because I still believe in the products. My trust in the management, however, is almost completely gone.
Beyond Meat management, seriously, get out and screw yourselves.

Meine Hoffnung lag hier zu großen Reimen auf den Deal. Fakt ist ich habe im ganzen Internet noch keinen einigen Post gefunden wie sich jemand mal in New York diesen Protein drink gekauft hat. In Prinzip lässt das nur den Schluss zu dass diese immer noch nicht im Einzelhandel in New York erhältlich sind. Es muss doch jemand aus New York geben der dies überprüft hat oder weiß?

A week ago, the short interest stood at 32.7% and had remained unchanged for months because short selling was only taking place via dark pools. Now, the official short interest is down to just 25.6%. That’s quite a drop, but at the same time, the stock has been falling for days?

Last quarter, our gross margin plummeted to 2.3% due to extraordinary write-downs on excess inventory, the withdrawal from China with one-time restructuring costs, and high inventory levels that had to be written down. I think it will now rebound to at least 13%; I’m actually expecting 18%. I also see revenue as likely to be higher rather than lower due to meat prices. So it’s going to be very hard to do worse than their own estimate—which was already set extremely low. Maybe with a plan? If we beat it, bots will buy automatically in a second, and longs are completely screwed. I’m sticking with slightly better than expected, and ciao

The outlook for Q1 results is cautiously optimistic, though with clear caveats. Revenue is expected to come in slightly above forecasts, driven primarily by higher meat prices. At the same time, there is hope for a moderate improvement in the gross margin, which currently stands at 2.4%—a level that must be considered critically low.

However, it should be noted that key growth drivers have not yet had a significant impact in the first quarter:

* The introduction of the Clean Label occurred late in the quarter and is unlikely to have had any noticeable effect on demand.
* The rise in meat prices only began to have a stronger impact toward the end of the quarter.
* The Geysir deal, covering 26,000 locations in New York, will not take full effect until Q2.

Therefore, the Q1 figures are primarily indicative. The key question is whether stabilization is emerging—in particular, whether the company has reached its operational low point and is making initial progress in revenue and margins.

However, Q2 will be the true barometer. This is where the measures implemented must take effect:

* Noticeable revenue growth,
* Significant improvement in gross margins,
* Positive development of new products (especially beverages).

At the same time, the risk situation remains high. The company is heavily indebted and continues to burn through capital. Without prompt operational improvement, there is a serious liquidity risk within the next 12–18 months.

I Hope the Best ♥️🤝♥️

Let the bears talk. We all know the price is fake. Back then we hit a similar level when Beyond Meat was basically on the floor, sitting on about 1.2 billion in debt and everyone thought it was going bankrupt. Since then the debt has been restructured and pushed down hard in the short term. Right now we are talking about roughly a third of that debt or even less. Bankruptcy is basically off the table for now. So for me this price just makes no sense.

I am going to lay out a few points that back that up. Over the last few days you can see that around ten million shares are being borrowed every single day just to short the stock. That alone shows the kind of pressure behind pushing it down from its highs. It is also not normal that a stock opens up five to ten percent almost daily and then gets sold off all the way down, while the minute chart barely moves for long stretches despite high volume. Only bears can honestly believe this is a normal stock behaving like any other.

Now to the reasons why I think this stock is already heavily undervalued. First, Beyond Immersed. In my opinion that was a huge move, just like getting into protein bars. Only bears manage to spin that into something negative, saying it is stupid to enter a competitive and supposedly saturated market. That is nonsense. The product that wins is always the one that actually works and tastes the best. There are countless protein brands out there, especially in Germany, and almost all of them are milk based. You can buy shakes at every kiosk. Sure, it is not easy to enter, but the brand already exists and it comes down to product quality. Beyond keeps winning on taste, again and again, which you can see from all the awards their products get. I expect the protein bars to taste great and bring something unique. The drinks are genuinely refreshing, and across Europe there is basically no widely available non milk based protein drink you can just grab in a supermarket. They are not everywhere yet, but this could really take off. And the idea that the market is saturated is just wrong. People are getting more health conscious, moving away from sugar and toward protein.

Second, the deal with Geyser in New York. That opens up distribution to twenty seven thousand stores. That is huge. Other brands have built billion dollar valuations selling overpriced, bad tasting, pointless vitamin water. This could have a massive impact on revenue and help push the company further out of its debt situation.

Third, the clean label. For years people have been calling Beyond highly processed junk that nobody wants to eat. That argument is honestly absurd. People call that trash but then eat cheap pork full of antibiotics that sells for next to nothing, even though it has to be bred, processed, packaged, transported and sold with margins at every step. And they feel fine about that. The environmental impact is not even part of that discussion. Industrial farming and fishing are among the biggest contributors to emissions, but nobody talks about it because the meat industry is incredibly powerful. Meat is not getting cheaper anymore either. Prices are rising and plant based alternatives are getting closer. At some point people will switch, especially once they realize the taste is actually good and now comes with a clean label. Over the next three to four years the outlook is extremely strong. We already saw the boom and bust cycle in meat alternatives, but in the long run this trend is not going away.

Fourth, more deals. Walmart, Kroger, more and more stores are picking up the products, expanding the range and driving future growth. The company is far from dead. Even if revenue has declined, there is still solid demand and it can grow again from here.

Fifth, the earnings report. This time they announced the date two weeks in advance, which did not happen before. That is actually a very good sign. The report is expected on May sixth, and it shows they are improving on transparency and timing instead of constantly delaying things. I expect revenue to come in around expectations or slightly above, maybe a bit flat, but margins and outlook to be better. That alone could push the stock sharply higher, at least toward one fifty.

Those are just some of the recent developments. We are talking about great taste, award winning products, new deals, restructured and reduced debt, a strong clean label, and expansion into a massive protein market that is still growing. The timing of this shift and the rebranding was spot on. On top of that you have things like meme stock dynamics, rising search interest and other signals that show Beyond is far from dead.

And now to the bears. I really do not get why you show up here every single day just to drop the most pointless comments. Always the same thing, saying people are stupid for investing in a stock that is down ninety nine percent since the beginning. What exactly are you trying to achieve with that? Do you actually think those comments add any value? Everyone in here knows the chart, knows the numbers and knows exactly how this stock has performed. Nobody is blind. Anyone can read a chart and look at basic data.

What you still do not get is that I have been holding this stock for half a year and keep adding to my position. Not because I am betting on a short squeeze, even though I would gladly take that for a quick profit and then reload lower. I am holding because I genuinely believe in the product. It tastes insanely good, and now with the clean label and even better ingredients it is only getting stronger. Meat alternatives will keep gaining ground in a world that is moving toward healthier living. Not everyone wants to ignore what is happening to the planet while continuing to fund industries that are clearly among the biggest contributors to environmental damage. I would rather support companies like BYND.

Yes, I will admit the last earnings were bad. Revenue is down and margins are weak. But just because a stock has performed badly for five years does not mean it will keep going that way forever. I do not believe that at all. And calling someone an idiot just because they invest in something says more about you than anything else. This is a BYND investment group. People here know the risks, they know the numbers, and they are still convinced. There is a reason for that.

I am fully convinced, to the point where I would bet everything on it, that BYND will be at ten dollars or higher by 2028. I also expect that by the end of this year we will finally see revenue picking up again and margins improving. And that does not even factor in what Beyond Immersed, protein bars and future products could bring.

I am still positive. I think the stock is already undervalued and I am curious to see if things start moving as early as May sixth when the Q1 results come out and we might see the first signs of recovery.

And the funniest part to me is how the bears show up on every red day acting all smug. Do you even realize how little I care about short term price moves? Sure, a short squeeze would be nice, but honestly I do not care. If the stock drops twenty percent in a day, great, I will just buy more. Because I believe the price is completely disconnected from the real potential here, and I see a chance to build a position in what could become a major player over the next decades at a price well below one dollar.

And what I find especially funny is that these comments show up every single day, on every red day. But I have never seen any of you, who claim to be so smart, actually open massive short positions yourselves. So just let everyone do their thing. We can keep it factual, no problem, but daily comments like “it is down twenty percent this week” are just pointless. Everyone can read that themselves.

And do not forget, we actually care about what is happening to the planet. We believe in this, we see positive signs, and whether you like it or not, it really does not matter how many red days there are. I am fully convinced there is still huge turnaround potential here. The stock is still heavily shorted, and it would only take slightly better earnings for unexpected moves to happen.

My main thesis is that the company improves over the next two years through better margins, stronger products, clean label, more distribution and more public attention. It already has that meme stock element, and search interest has recently jumped massively. So from my perspective the turnaround chances are pretty solid, especially since a company with good products cannot post negative numbers forever. At some point things have to improve, or at least they should. The products are already established, there is strong know how, the market exists, and the product range already has decent reach.

So for me, this is still one of the best chances to multiply my money over the next two years at this price level. And the final point is the short squeeze potential. It is still massive. The borrow rate has been above twenty percent for months. People keep downplaying that, saying it is just a tiny percentage per day, but the fact is anyone short is paying continuously. Millions of shares are being borrowed every single day. Recently alone, more than ten million shares per day have been borrowed just to short the stock. That is insane.

So yeah, I see plenty of reasons why this company is far from dead and still has huge upside potential in the future.

Best regards, your bagholder.