u/Criptobeginner

Bitcoin is hovering around $60K–$62K right now after a rough June (down ~20%, worst monthly drop in years). It’s corrected hard from 2025 highs near $100K–$126K, but many analysts say 2026 could still deliver the real bull phase.
Quick Context:
• Post-2024 halving cycle has been slower than usual due to ETFs, macro headwinds, and institutional money.
• Historical patterns: Strength often hits 12–18 months post-halving → we’re in that window.
• Bullish views: New ATHs possible, targets $150K–$180K+ if rate cuts hit and adoption grows. 
• Risks: Further dips to $50K possible if support breaks. Mixed sentiment right now.
Long-term holders see this as accumulation. Short-term? Expect volatility.
What do you think — bottom in or more pain ahead?

Spot Bitcoin ETFs (like IBIT, FBTC) hold real BTC. Their creation/redemption mechanism directly influences supply/demand:

- **Inflows (creations)**: Authorized Participants deliver BTC (or cash) → funds buy Bitcoin on the open market. Sustained inflows = real buying pressure and upward price support.

- **Redemptions (outflows)**: Investors sell ETF shares → funds sell BTC or deliver it in-kind. Large or persistent outflows add sell pressure, increasing available supply and often contributing to price drops or volatility.

**Real-world impact (2025-2026):**
- Record outflows (e.g., billions in a month) have coincided with corrections, especially alongside macro headwinds.
- However, correlation ≠ causation every day. Price can move opposite to daily flows due to broader market forces.

Studies show long-term cointegration: growing ETF AUM generally supports higher BTC prices. In-kind redemptions (allowed later) help reduce slippage vs pure cash sales.

**Bottom line**: ETF flows are a major institutional demand signal and can amplify moves, but they're one piece of the puzzle alongside halvings, macro trends, adoption, and whale activity. Cumulative inflows since launch remain strongly positive despite periodic outflows.

Always DYOR and track flows on sites like Farside or SoSoValue.

What do you think — are ETFs net bullish for BTC long-term?

Record share of BTC held by long Term hodlers is about 82% and on-chain metrics show LTH panic selling skipes may have peaked. what do you think?

US Senate Expected To Release CLARITY Act Final Text This Week. Can be a shift? Is this week the bottom?

long-term bitcoin holders retain a dominant share of the circulating supply. This accumulation reduces the amount of bitcoins available on the market and gradually changes the balance between buyers and sellers. Historical investors seem to favor holding their assets rather than quick redistribution.

Here are the main figures illustrating this situation:

79% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is held by long-term investors, a historic record.

218,421 BTC dormant for at least two years were reactivated as of June 6, 2026, the lowest level since 2012.

Long-term holders limit their movements.

Trading volumes decline, while ETF capital outflows reach their lowest levels of the year.

What will happen now?

I think the path of BTC is always upwards, but the bottom of the cycle may not have been reached yet. What do you think?

It will depend a lot on each person's strategy, but in the long term, the value is approximately 40% below the ath, even though demand continues to increase significantly, with treasury companies buying and banks selling to their clients, not only crypto believers. seems everyone is expecting a bigger drop, while many accumulate at this price. What do you think?

BTC climbed from the mid-to-upper $60K range in early April (around $66K–$68K) to break above $75,000 recently, with peaks nearing $77K–$78K intraday. This represents a solid recovery and breakout above key resistance levels.

After a tougher Q1 marked by corrections and macro pressures, April has brought fresh buying pressure, supply constraints from prior halvings, and positive technical momentum. Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from consolidation to accumulation mode. What do you think?