![[Shams] The sides waited for the Lakers to complete their offseason business to pursue a sign-and-trade, but the Lakers didn’t cooperate on an agreement. So the Clippers and Hachimura moved forward to keep him in his desired location of LA.](https://preview.redd.it/wn87wp7lombh1.jpeg?auto=webp&s=52c5bce9e453513aee30fa9751d4c08c99c3df0d)
Was watching the Third Apron podcast with Yossi Gonzalez & Sam Quin and they proposed a "risky, probably irresponsible" idea to get Kessler:
Send a max offer sheet of a 2+1 player option deal (~$40M AAV), hope to renegotiate a longer term, lower-AAV deal after the second year
In this world, the Lakers are overpaying Walker Kessler in the two years in which they're underpaying Luka. That's how you rationalize the overpay.
And then you use your 2031/2033 picks, remaining contracts and cap space and the cap MLE to go try to find your long-term wings.
This idea is risky because you're overpaying Kessler but you could avoid giving up cap space AND picks in a sign & trade.
Thoughts?
Full video: https://www.youtube.com/live/GA2TzkaF1BA?is=pRi0VRaJRzIfZ8Zp
In case you're unsure of what the LEBRON metric is:
Luck-adjusted player
Estimate using a
Box prior
Regularized
ON-off
Per BBall Index: LEBRON evaluates a player’s contributions using the box score (weighted using boxPIPM’s weightings stabilized using Offensive Archetypes) and advanced on/off calculations (using Luck-Adjusted RAPM methodology) for a holistic evaluation of player impact per 100 possessions on-court.
LEBRON is broken up between LEBRON (overall impact), O-LEBRON (offensive impact), and D-LEBRON (defensive impact). It is a measure of impact, not talent, and like with our talent grades has an age growth curve where we expect players to get better (more rapidly when younger) over time and then drop over time (more rapidly the older they get) later in their career.
After listening to Lakers and non-Lakers media coverage, it seems like most common number thrown around if LeBron remains on the Lakers for next season is about $25M. Using that number as a hypothetical, which path would you rather take?
Feel free to elaborate in the comments
- Lakers are prioritizing CENTER position the most (will likely come via trade)
- “Most frequent brought up” option to improve via his sources are trades into cap space
- Mentions OKC players like (IHart, Dort, Joe, Wiggins) as possible targets
- Doesn’t expect Hart or Dort to hit FA
Based on his words on the podcast, it sounds like there won't be any updates on his future with Lakers or if he wants to explore other destinations until late June at the earliest
Relevant dates:
**Incumbent FA Negotiations** - Day After NBA Finals (mid-June)
**NBA Draft** - June 23
**Contract Options** - June 29
**FA Moratorium Period** - June 30
**FA Signings** - July 6