u/DIYRetiree

I ran the KFF calculator for a couple at $84,599 vs $84,601 across nine states. The two-dollar difference ....yikes.

I wanted to know what it actually costs a pre-retiree couple to land on the wrong side of 400% FPL — not in theory, but in real dollars by state. So I ran the KFF Health Insurance Marketplace Calculator twice for each state. Same couple, same plan tier, just two dollars apart in income.

(edit: This is for a couple aged 60, nonsmokers. KFF calculator gives 'silver' plan rates)

	zip	MAGI $84,599	MAGI $84,601
Washington	98270	$701	$2,704
New Mexico	87176	$702	$2,182
New Jersey	08619	$702	$2,266
Massachusetts	02201	$702	$1,644
Colorado	80233	$702	$2,119
Minnesota	55408	$702	$1,611
Florida	32856	$702	$2,829
Arizona	85018	$702	$2,013
Alabama	36116	$702	$2,643
National Average		$700	$2,598

A couple in Washington state — where I live — pays $701 OR $2,704 for the same Silver plan. That's a $24,000 a year difference for two dollars of income.

A few things that surprised me: Minnesota and Massachusetts came out best above the cliff — not because they targeted the cliff specifically, but because long-running reinsurance programs lower base premiums for everyone. Washington actually came out worst despite having Cascade Care Savings — silver loading inflates premiums on the other side of 400% FPL, actually worsening the cliff.

No state I looked at eliminates the cliff above 400% FPL. The best you can hope for is a shorter fall.

Anyone else factoring this into their withdrawal sequencing for bridge years before Medicare?

My wife and I have been circling this for a couple of years (okay, 5!) and we finally started running countdown timers in our phones: she plans to stop at 59, and me at *ahem* exactly 60.8 (at this point the decimal feels like it matters).

Our decision was mostly spreadsheet-driven, but what we really struggled with is the determination that yes, in fact, we may stop working at X date. It feels more like a social compact, oddly, and the math is just a validation exercise. She's more financially conservative and I'm more financially liberal. She worries very much about healthcare spending and sequence of returns risk(or the apocalypse, you just never know). I love spreadsheets and tracking but I actually find some comfort when I run the numbers.

Could we squeeze out "one more year" beyond our dates for extra cushion? Sure. But beside the math, I've planted my personal flag at 60, hence the 60 POINT 8 number.

I suspect everyone's tipping point is different, but ours is mostly math and agreeing based on what we're both seeing.

For those of you already retired or have your 'compact': what actually picked your date? The math, an external milestone (pension cliff, insurance, a birthday), or did you just hit a wall one Tuesday and know?