u/DallasCPACPCU

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I write a financial/geopolitical newsletter and just published a deep dive on the logistical realities of the AI data center buildout in Abilene, Texas — the flagship site of the $500 billion Stargate project.

The coverage has been heavy on the announcement and light on the details. Here are the details that jumped out at me:

- Abilene is 180 miles from Dallas. At peak construction, 5,000–6,000 workers were showing up daily with nowhere nearby to live.

- Rents jumped ~$1,000/month in a city of 125,000 people. Families ended up in homeless encampments. The Housing Authority started advising elderly and disabled clients to relocate outside city limits.

- The facility is projected to employ 357 permanent workers when complete. The housing market doesn't disappear when the cranes do.

- ERCOT's large-load interconnection queue nearly quadrupled from 56 GW to 205 GW in one year — against a grid with peak demand of ~80–85 GW.

- Texas passed Senate Bill 6 giving ERCOT authority to curtail data centers before residential customers during peak stress events — essentially an admission these projects were approved before the grid could handle them.

- There are currently no state laws regulating data center water consumption in Texas. The Houston Advanced Research Center projects Texas data centers will consume 399 billion gallons of water annually by 2030.

- Taylor County granted an 85% property tax abatement for 10 years. Good Jobs First estimates Texas is forgoing $1B+ annually in data center tax revenue statewide.

The WSJ also reported this week that local opposition blocked or delayed 48 data center projects valued at $156 billion last year, and a record 20 were canceled in Q1 alone. AI is now polling less favorably than ICE according to recent Stanford/UC Berkeley research.

None of this is an argument against AI infrastructure. It's an argument for asking better questions before the ribbon-cutting.

Happy to discuss — genuinely curious what people closer to these issues think.

Full newsletter link in comments.

Every week I publish Risk, Et al...'s "The Saturday Morning Blend", a newsletter curating the week's most important stories with analysis for risk professionals. This week's edition:

🇨🇳 Xi's Taiwan Warning to Trump (WSJ) — Trump needed Xi's help on Iran. Xi put Taiwan front and center. Beijing is executing a strategy while America wages a war without one.

🔍 China Gains Major Edge on U.S., Intelligence Report Finds (WaPo) — Confidential Pentagon assessment: China is selling weapons to Gulf allies, filling America's energy vacuum, and studying U.S. war-fighting in real time. U.S. munitions are depleted.

📈 Inflation Soared to 3.8% in April (WSJ) — Highest in three years. Gas up 28%, fuel oil up 54%, real wages declining. The Fed is now debating rate hikes, not cuts.

💸 Rising Cost of Living Leaves North Texas Retirees Struggling (Dallas Morning News) — Retirees need $40K/year to live independently in DFW. Social Security pays $24K. The human stories behind that gap are sobering.

🤖 Is AI Putting Graduates Out of Work Already? (The Economist) — CS employment dropped from 70% to 55% in three years. Job postings 50% below peak. The displacement is moving up the education ladder.

Full edition on Substack

Happy to discuss any of these in the comments.

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I write a financial/geopolitical newsletter and just published a deep dive on what I think is one of the most underappreciated shifts in American real estate right now.

The short version: climate risk, insurance market retreat, and water scarcity are starting to push capital and people away from Sun Belt markets and toward what researchers are calling the "Resilience Belt" — Great Lakes and Northeast cities that have cheap land, abundant freshwater, and functioning insurance markets.

Some of the data points that jumped out at me:

• Hartford, CT is down 79.6% in active listings since 2019. Chicago -61.7%. Philadelphia -47.4%
• Austin is up 52% in active listings. Dallas (where I live) up 23.6%
• First Street projects $1.47 trillion in net property value losses in Sun Belt markets over 30 years
• Fed Chair Powell has warned Congress that within 10-15 years some U.S. regions will be effectively unmortgageable
• Texas is staring down a $170 billion water infrastructure gap per the upcoming 2027 State Water Plan
• The Atlantic recently reported that three of the five fastest-growing U.S. metro areas are now in the Midwest

I'm not saying the Sun Belt is going to collapse — Miami and Houston are too economically vital for that. But the era of asymmetric returns from simply buying where the weather is warm may be behind us.

Happy to discuss any of this — genuinely curious what people here think, especially anyone in the affected markets.

https://open.substack.com/pub/brianjhunt/p/skate-to-where-the-puck-is-going?r=1anjwt&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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Every week I publish The Saturday Morning Blend, a newsletter that curates the week's most important stories with analysis for professionals. This week's edition covers a lot of ground:

🌍 The U.S. Started the War. The Rest of the World Is Feeling the Effects. (NYT) — Eight weeks of conflict in Iran have shuttered mills in India, grounded airlines in Europe, and triggered energy rationing across Asia. America has been relatively spared — but economists warn we're simply the last to feel it.

🛢️ The UAE's OPEC Bombshell Signals a New Middle East Order (WSJ) — After absorbing 2,800 Iranian drones and missiles, the Emirates has exited OPEC, welcomed Israeli Iron Dome batteries onto its soil, and openly fractured its relationship with Saudi Arabia.

📉 Oil Markets Are Still in La La Land (The Economist) — Futures markets are betting on a swift Hormuz resolution and a return to $88 oil by year-end. The Economist argues that bet may be very wrong.

🚗 The U.S. Wants to Ban China's High-Tech Cars, but They're Already Here in El Paso (WSJ) — BYDs and Geelys are selling five miles from the U.S. border. Thirty percent of American consumers say they'd consider buying one. Detroit has seen this movie before.

💧 North Texas Is Next If It Doesn't Plan for Water (Dallas Morning News) — Corpus Christi is the canary in the coal mine. North Texas adds 3.7 million residents by 2050 and faces $170B in water infrastructure needs. The cheap water is gone.

Full edition on Substack

Happy to discuss any of these stories in the comments.