Now that the frenzy over the Alliance has calmed down a bit, we can finally look at the situation a bit more clearly. This wasn’t the first time a collation/alliance was formed against Abiy. Back in 2021 an alliance of 9 rebel/opposition forces was formed and they even meet in DC, but that didn’t amount to anything on the ground except only between the TPLF and OLA for a brief period of the war in Kemise and Wollo.
During that time people were raising the same questions as they are now regarding the current alliance and Jaal Marro had an interview with the Associated Press to address the news of the alliance and the concerns of the people specifically regarding what reassurances he can give the Oromo people and in general that his organization wouldn’t face the same fate that the OLF did in 1991-92 and his answer was just shocking to say the least. Basically his reassurance was just based on vibes. “Hope”, “Trust”, and “I don’t think they would”. Knowing the TDF was a much stronger force compared to the OLA, knowing the TDF had the capacity to direct and enforce there will on them once Abiy fell if they wanted to, Jaal Marro and the OLA’s great plan was to “Hope” and “Trust” they wouldn’t repeat what they did to them in 1991. 🫠🫠🫤if your a senior partner(meaning have the strongest military power) in a collation then it makes sense for you to create and join an alliance because it boosts your strength and chances of success and if your partners backstab you, you have reassurance in your military strength to crush and or suppress them. Which is why I believe the TPLF made Zemene Kassie the head of the alliance because in reality TPLF is the senior partner but to secure more support from the Fano supporters they needed him as the face of the alliance. But it seems like Fano is willing to take that risk despite being a junior partner.
After seeing this and knowing in terms of military strength there position hasn’t changed much and are probably even weaker compared to TDF and Fano, Why in there right mind would any Oromo support them and this alliance considering there shortsightedness and stupidness of there last alliance and Jaal Marro’s “Reassurances.”
These forces are:
OLA has already confirmed this to be true. And apparently the head of this new “alliance” is going to be Zemene Kassie himself 😂
The gemstone is called Paraíba tourmaline and it’s been recently discovered in Guji zone near a village called Abuloo.
Not a great time to be a truck driver in Ethiopia
Additional BBC report - https://www.bbc.com/afaanoromoo/articles/c980dg4zp64o
Since 6-7 months after Abiys televised visit and speech at the inauguration of the Tulu Kapi Gold project in West Wallaga zone, KEFI Gold and Copper plc has suspended developments until further notice following a serious security incident that left multiple security personnel and community members dead, including one company employee.
Group or individuals responsible for the attack still not made public or clear. Overall bad look foreign investment opportunities in Ethiopia and will definitely scare off future investments. Another example why Investments and economic growth is impossible and means nothing without first and foremost Security and Peace.
Official company press release -
https://www.kefi-goldandcopper.com/files/announcements/kefi_rns_tulu_kapi_7-9-26_final.pdf
For months, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) held a firm grip on Kurmuk, using it as a springboard for major advances into Sudan's Blue Nile State with their sights set on the capital, Ad-Damazin. Now, the tables have turned.
In a Counteroffensive, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have forced the RSF onto the defensive, expelling them from Kurmuk and choking off a vital supply route that stretched across into the Ethiopian border.
This sudden shift puts Addis Ababa in a tight spot. Ethiopia's strategy of backing the RSF as a counterweight to the SAF’s support for the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and Army 70 appears to have backfired.
Will Ethiopia now retreat behind its usual diplomatic denials and lean into neutrality? Or will it escalate the stakes, allowing the RSF to use Ethiopian territory to launch a counteroffensive to retake Kurmuk?
The SAF’s immediate focus will likely remain locked on Blue Nile State. The RSF still has access to alternative logistical lifelines, like the border town of Yabus. But with the battlefield shifting closer to the frontiers of Sudan and Ethiopia, the ultimate question remains: Will Sudan take the fight across the border and conduct strikes within Ethiopian territory? If so this can quickly spiral out of control into a full on military confrontation between the two states which will bring in each of there respective ally’s (Eritrea, Egypt, Somalia, Etc) and cause a geopolitical crisis.
Time will till.
There has been rumours and later on evidence(plane tracking, reports, satellite images, etc.) making this exact claim before but there was always an element of plausible deniability with those claims on the part of the Ethiopian government.
But now, there is no mistaking that these are real RSF elements and that they are operating from within Ethiopian borders. You can see there signature head wrappings and signature modified mounted Toyota pickups with the top part chopped off.
This video and other similar ones that have recently came out have been by OSINT experts online geolocated to the kurmuk district, Benishangual-gumuz region of Ethiopia.
In this video there seems to be two individual Oromo speaking local workers on the side of the road who managed to capture this on there cameras and then a Arabic speaking native of the Benishngual region presumably there coworker.
I have provided a partial translation of the video of the affan Oromo parts at least.
As OSINT experts online have already pointed out, in the video the RSF elements within Ethiopia are driving on the Kurmuk-Assosa highway40 main road from within Ethiopia towards the borders of Sudan to the town of Kurmuk.
Kurmuk-Assosa main road is a highway road used by a lot of multi-million/billion dollar mining company’s that operate in that area so it is highly unlikely that the RSF was able to use this road without the Ethiopian government knowing or approving of it, so the Ethiopian government can not claim porous borders as an excuse for this in my opinion.
But now that this is confirmed without a doubt that Ethiopia is helping the RSF there is a moral and Geopolitical question that all Ethiopians need to deal with. There has been evidence on the other side that Sudan and the SAF have been aiding and helping the TDF-TPLF militarily arguably much longer prior to Ethiopia even getting involved in the Sudan conflict.
So, is it okay to play Geopolitics and play tit for tat and support Sudans rebels since the SAF is supporting the TDF(Army 70) or don’t support them since they are accused of mass human rights violation and genocide which will paint Ethiopia in a bad light but from geopolitical and strategic standpoint will put Ethiopia on a back foot against the SAF/TDF alliance and future TDF offensives.