u/Dior2018

25K WEEKLY GTD $250 buy in
14 left out of 200, ITM
No immediate pay jumps but ICM is a factor. Usually there is an ICM chop at 5 or 6 players so surviving that long is big.

Villain is a trying reg with whom we have history. They are capable of bluffing but mostly play TAG. Covers with 50bb.
Hero 35bb (effective)

V opens UTG +1 at 7handed table to 2.5bb. Folds to bb.

Hero has AhQh in the bb.

Hero has an awkward stack size. With less I would jam but AQ is a little light for getting 35bb in the middle as I don’t think V calls with worse. Probably folds KQ- and AJ-. With a larger stack size 3! would be optimal but I don’t want to 3! and fold to a 4 bet nor do I want to stack off with 35bb this late. I also don’t think it is bad to under rep our hand so I call.

Flop TcTs4c

Hero checks.

Villain Cbets 3 bb into 6.5bb pot. No real bet sizing or timing tells. V range consists of pairs, suited aces, any two face cards, maybe some suited connectors.

Although I don’t have any real back doors I think A high is ahead here much of the time. This board slightly favors bb but not by much as we have close to the same amount of T. I have more of 4 in range. I would consider c/r with some backdoors as a bluff but not with AQ as it is too strong to turn into a bluff. Folding is an option. But I consider that way too weak tight as hero should be ahead of the median of V’s range. So calling is the only real option.

Turn 5d

Quick check/check

River Th

Hero checks
V looks at his hand then quickly bets 9bb

This has me befuddled. If someone is a beginner they will often check to see if they hit their flush which isn’t relevant here. Sometimes intermediate players will look at their cards when they have a strong hand just as an impulse to make sure they really have it before betting. But not many hands make sense. A flush draw would probably bet turn. So would a T to charge the draws/get value. And in terms of combos it’s really hard to have quads. The hands that make the most sense are 66-99 type hands that were too weak to bet turn but now have turned into a full house. But then why would Villain look at their hand? They would know if they had 99. It all seems very suspicious. Generally when nothing makes sense, I am inclined to believe it is a bluff. 9bb is also a polarizing sizing which makes a T or a boat more likely but also makes bluffs more likely. If I had to put a number on it I think he’s bluffing at least 40%. So I have the chip EV to call.

The only other consideration is ICM. I already have 5.5bb invested, this call would be 9bb out of 29.5bb remaining. There are a few stacks under 15bb so even if I call and lose I cover those. And the other stacks are mostly over 40bb, there aren’t many middle stacks left. If I call and win I would go from a middle stacks to 2nd in chips which is tempting.

Do we have enough to put it all together in game and make the hero call? Or is this a fold? Is this something you’d ever consider or just snap fold?

$165 shitty daily turbo donkamint. 15 players remaining. Generally chops 5-6 ways.

Villain is a TAG trying reg 20/15 stats (estimated). Linear 3! range consisting of TT+/AK/AQ/suited broadway

600/1200/1200 Hero opens AhQd to 2.5 bb from cutoff w/45bb.

V 3! to 5bb from the button and covers. They prefer small sizes so not much to read into.

I already don’t like it. AQo has reverse implied odds against V range. If I hit an A, I still lose to AK. If I hit a Q I pull ahead of AK, but still lose to KK+. I won’t know which is which. I quickly discount 4 betting as it gets worse to fold and better to jam. Fold is honestly the next best option but I am a sucker for seeing a flop for just 2.5bb.

Flop: QcJc7s

I check. V c bets 5bb.

TPTK looks strong. But as stated I am still behind AA/KK and crushed by QQ/JJ. Also losing to QJ suited if that is in his range. I clearly am not considering folding. Raising is also overplaying my hand so it’s a straightforward call. I am going to play chicken with Villain. I don’t believe they will barrel off with worse so if they barrel I will lean towards reading thick value. I am hoping they give up and we get to showdown.

Turn: 2s

Blank aside from bringing a second flush draw.
I check. V bets 10bb.
I don’t think V will continue with worse so I am leaning towards reading this as a hand stronger than top pair. But I am not going to fold just yet. With two flush draws I believe V will fire here but give up on blank rivers. I don’t read him as someone who will 3 barrel bluff.

River: 7d

I check. V shoves, covering me.

I go into the tank. Figure I may as well table talk. I ask him directly if he has KK, just to get a read. V says, “You know me. I must have something.”

At first glance this seems like a standard strong means weak tell. But I don’t like it. Generally when V talks, particularly if it is a coherent statement, I lean towards reading thick value. When they are bluffing they usually don’t talk or will mutter something incoherent. V seems comfortable and I’ve never seen them get caught on a 3 barrel bluff over dozens and dozens of prior tournaments.

Reasons to call:

1. Math. 25bb to win 92.5bb
2. The way the tournament works is I will almost certainly cash if I hit 92.5bb. So, if I call and win, this practically puts me into the money.
3. I just play these shitty donkamints for fun and folding isn’t fun. Probably not the best reason but it is what it is.
4. This is an iterative game. I will play V over and over again including 500K and 1M gtd events. These are the lowest stakes we will play and it’s probably worth $165 just to see if he ever 3 barrels with AcKc or AsKs.

Reasons to fold:

1. I genuinely put him on KK+. I block AA and QQ and there are only two combos of JJ. I believe he will check river with KQ/QJ. I haven’t seen him bluff over a decent sample size. He has shown aggression on every street, representing better than TPTK. My hand is effectively a bluff catcher.
2. If I fold 25bb is a workable stack. Maybe not…it’s a turbo. If I fold I’ll probably end up going all in with a hand worse than top top. But in the moment, I was thinking it’s a viable stack.

Hero ???

Hi! First post. Some background info: I am a winning live rec meaning I have a full-time job and play about 1000 hours of live poker per year at around $50 per hour win rate. After a great WSOP in which I cashed every event I played I’ve lost my last 15 buyins or so and looking for line checks. I know 15 buyins is an unremarkable downswing but it has been about a year since I’ve run that badly. 250 buyin/100k gtd with a decent structure. QQ against OMC villain. Assume I have a LAG image.

70 bb effective at 300/600/600 level
Open QQ from middle position to 2.5 bb.
OMC 3! to 7bb from cutoff.

I estimate villain’s range is JJ+/AK. Maybe some lighter3! with suited Aces. Standard play is reraising with the intention of getting it in. However, if I 4 bet I believe it will get worse to fold and better to continue. I called to play post against a predictable opponent.

Flop: 3d4d6c

I checked. V bet 5bb. I believe they have predictable bet sizes and would bet more with KK/AA as I have seen them pot with thick value consistently. This narrows their range to JJ/AK. Maybe some flush draws if I ranged them too narrowly initially. Although I do not think that suited cards comprise a substantial part of their range, they may show up with some flush draws. I raise to 20bb with the intention of stacking off or if called to have under a PSB on the turn. I will jam any non A,K, or diamond turn. V calls.

Turn: Kd

The worst card in the deck. I now lose to AK and flushes. JJ will not call. I check. V bets 10bb. I don’t know what to make of this size but I don’t think V will bet worse for value or bluff. At this point there is no hand remaining in Vs range that I can beat.

Note that if V was not an OMC or was capable of light 3! or calling off with worse I would just 4 bet pre with the intention of getting it in. I think most people will just get it in pre and if they lose say ‘well that’s a cooler’ and simply rebuy. I don’t know if my play cost me an opportunity to double up or saved half my stack. Although I play LAG generally and steal a lot of pots, I tend to give V credit when they do play back. Maybe I shouldn’t? My play was based on a read that V is an OMC, probably around 15% VPIP, I only saw him 3! two other times in about 3 hours of play and showed QQ and AA on those two occasions, once at showdown and once voluntarily. A lot of my downswing involves pots like these where I think I play well and preserve a stack but in losing a sizeable amount I end up getting it in with worse than QQ anyway. Maybe just get it in pre with a chance at a 140bb pot and pray?